Cash flow forecasting: Looking for Weak Signals
John Parkinson, affiliate partner at Waterstone Management Group in Chicago. describes " the approach I have used for more than two decades to get a handle on what’s likely to be ahead. The approach is called “weak signals.” His framework includes 6 elements: Devices, Locus, Algorithms, Process, Society and Expectations.
He explains, "These horizons are guidelines only. I allocate the weak signals I track to a horizon (I generally use some combination of Delphi methods, crowd-sourcing, and scenario modeling) and allocate resources based on how soon I think the signal will tell me something."
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