The consensus in the many corporate treasurers I know is that the euro will survive, and at least one country will exit the euro. Although there are great differences of opinion about what will happen, ranging from the euro will disappear to no countries leaving the euro. The one thing they all agree about is that a multidisciplinary task force - made up of treasury, HR, sales and operations, and business units - is needed to work out what the implications are for their group AND develop plans as to what to do in each possible scenario. They have all also set up a permanent team/project to monitor, manage and coordinate their group's reaction.

Most corporates now have their plans in place and are ready to react. Actions that corporates have already taken, include:

• daily sweeping all euros from key countries; others sweep all euros from the whole eurozone
• opened alternative or backup bank accounts
• developed alternative local lines of credit
• changed point of sale systems and services to cater for the new currencies
• at least worked how to change the ERP systems if a new currency is created
• set up a myriad of alternative ways to continue to pay staff (which include using Visa or MasterCard credit card accounts for employees) and to pay key suppliers
• reviewed the implications for most/all of their legal contracts.

All corporates are agreed that the changeover period, most are expecting it to be over a weekend, will be very difficult, and it is then that the alternative arrangements they have made will be vital.

All companies are aware of the possible treasury risks and impacts: on receivables and payables, of re-denomination, changes to contract law, and credit risk - possible loss of cash and ability to withdraw existing credit facilities. However, it is interest rate, credit and counter-party risk, for banks and suppliers, that is of the most enduring concern:

• debt facilities could be cancelled and availability of debt could dry up
• possible bank default and the loss of cash, bank deposits and money market investment
• interest rates could soar.

Nevertheless, it is not all doom and gloom. Marianna Polykrati, Group Treasurer at Vivartia Group (who are based in Greece and have operations in Bulgaria, Rumania and Cyprus) explained, in her talk at the Eurofinance Conference in September, that Vivartia is making intensive efforts to be well prepared and organized in order to cross the transitional period successfully, so that the economic pros and cons would not take long to manifest. She believes that the possibility of Greece exiting the Euro and introducing a new currency is neither impossible nor highly improbable. However, if it does happen, she believes that:

• the devaluation shock would be good for Greek exports and tourism. Areas highly correlated to the Group
• the abrupt reduction in wage costs, if it is accompanied by structural reforms and opening of the economy, would most probably be beneficial and the Group would jump start fast.