Last October, Symbiont's Caitlin Long made some predictions on how blockchain will develop in the next 12 months. Some of the predictions have already come true, while some still seem outlandish.

Credit card company uses blockchain for B2B global payments

One of her predictions that came true almost immediately was that “a credit card company will deploy a blockchain as its network in mobile payments”. Just a few weeks after Long published her blog, Chain did indeed announce that a credit card company – Visa Inc. – would use blockchain for business-to-business payments. Visa said it will be using an international B2B payment platform based on blockchain, called Visa B2B Connect, which enables financial institutions to process B2B payments globally.

Simplifying syndicated loans processing

Long also wrote that, in 2017, banks will widely adopt blockchain in the syndicated loan market as a prevalent means of communication. Symbiont is currently working on this project through a joint venture with Ipreo, with the aim of overhauling the antiquated and costly manual processing in the global syndicated loans market.

Failures will streamline competition

The possibility was also raised of blockchain technology failing to perform in a certain context. Long said that “some blockchain start-ups and projects will fail to keep up with their hype”. Such 'failures to deliver' will, Long predicts, enable “a very small number of production-quality blockchain platforms will break out as clear leaders based on what they’ve actually done, not what they might someday possibly maybe do”. In an interview with the Association of Financial Professionals (AFP), Long said: “There has been an awful lot of hype and some of the projects that were started have fallen by the wayside.” Watch Long's interview with the AFP here:

Sterling on blockchain?

She also foresees that a major central bank – either the US, UK or Japanese central banks – will issue their fiat currency on a blockchain. Long wrote in her blog: “The Bank of England will issue sterling on a blockchain, causing the pound to become the preferred intermediary currency for cross-border payments and creating a new competitive advantage for London’s financial markets post-Brexit.” She told the AFP: “I'm pretty confident that that will ultimately take place.”

Other blockchain predictions

Long's other predictions for blockchain this year include:

• A well-known private company will kick off preparations for its IPO on a blockchain, thus forcing a fundamental change to the plumbing of securities offerings on Wall Street.
• Insurers and reinsurers will complete a reinsurance syndication on a blockchain.
• Bitcoin will generally continue to trend “up and to the right” — in hashpower, transaction volume and price.
• More central banks in small countries will follow the lead of the central bank of Barbados, which green-lighted a blockchain start-up called Bitt to create a digital Barbados dollar that uses Bitcoin’s blockchain as an alternative method for settling foreign exchange.
• Overstock.com will complete the first public securities offering on a blockchain, and skeptics will be surprised at how well the blockchain-settled securities trade relative to Overstock’s existing common stock.
• The Delaware Blockchain Initiative will improve the delivery of all kinds of government services by the State, which will fundamentally boost its relationship with its constituents. Other states will follow Delaware’s lead.

Read Caitlin Long's blog in full here: Caitlin’s Top 10 Blockchain Predictions for the Next 12 Months.

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CTMfile take: Caitlin Long makes the important point that there is a huge amount of hype and we really have to judge initiatives by what they have actually done, rather than on the claims they make in press releases. She gives a great 'insider view' and some interesting predictions for what could be an exciting year ahead for blockchain innovation – particularly in the payments space.