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Bitcoin - the digital phenomenon that is splitting the financial world

The analyses of Bitcoin are coming thick and fast.

BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research report 
Woo, Gordon and Laralov’s detailed and important report issued on Dec 5th 2013 concluded that: 

  • Tamper-proof, limited supply and divisibility: We believe Bitcoin can become a major means of payment for e-commerce and may emerge as a serious competitor to traditional money transfer providers. As a medium of exchange, Bitcoin has clear potential for growth, in our view.
  • Store of wealth for the underground economy? It has been reported that Bitcoin may help users avoid high taxes, capital controls, and confiscation. The correlation between CNY's share of volume of all Bitcoin exchanges and price of Bitcoin is high and rising (Chart 1). That said, the fact that all Bitcoin transactions are publically available and that every Bitcoin has a unique transaction history that cannot be altered may ultimately limit its use in the black market/underworld.
  • Volatility: Bitcoin’s role as a store of value can compromise its viability as a medium of exchange. Its high volatility, a result of speculative activities, is hindering its general acceptance as a means of payments for on-line commerce.
  • Fair value? Is Bitcoin a bubble? Assuming Bitcoin becomes (1) a major player in both ecommerce and money transfer and (2) a significant store of value with a reputation close to silver, our fair value analysis implies a maximum market capitalization of Bitcoin of $15bn (1BTC = 1300 USD).

However, not everyone is as optimistic as BofA Merrill’s analysts.

Nicholas Weaver, Security Researcher
In his article in Wired, Weaver, a researcher at the International Computer Science Institute in Berkeley and U.C. San Diego, writes that he admires bitcoin-the-protocol. Nevertheless, he believes that bitcoin-the-currency contains a fatal flaw, one that ensures that bitcoin won’t ever achieve widespread adoption as a currency’. He writes: ‘bitcoin transactions are irreversible. That is, they can never be undone: Once committed, there is no “oops”, no “takeback”, no “control-Z”.’ 

He explained the importance of the un-do button:

  • Without an undo/ back button, it’s only possible to prevent fraud. 
  • With an undo, it would also be possible to detect and mitigate fraud; to see that something bad happened and then actually do something about it. Credit cards, bank account transfers, and all other electronic transactions involving a bank all have an “undo” button.

Heather Stewart, Economics Editor, The Observer
In a close of year article on 22 December Stewart named and shamed ‘a few horrors from the worlds of business and economics’. She listed several which she hoped could be assigned to the dustbin in 2014 including:

  • Bitcoin it’s not a currency, it’s a vanity project for under-employed, self-important tech nerds.

Take your pick of these views from serious, well respected analysts and commentators. What is certain is that it is not going to be easy for Bitcoin to be even a minor part of corporate treasury’s payment and liquidity management, let along become mainstream. Ask the team trying to establish the World Currency Unit.

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