Business leaders press ahead in 2026 despite uneven economic outlook

Business leaders in the US are entering 2026 with a more measured view of the economy, but remain broadly confident in their own prospects, according to the latest Business Leaders Outlook survey from J.P. Morgan Commercial Banking. US national economic optimism has rebounded to 39%, up from a midyear low of 32%, although it remains well below the five-year high reached last year. By contrast, global economic optimism among respondents stands at 28%, broadly in line with the 15-year average of 26%. The survey suggests sentiment has stabilised after notable volatility earlier in 2025, which business leaders associate with new tariffs and policy changes, as well as interest rate cuts introduced as the US labour market cooled.

Expectations of a US recession remain relatively subdued. Just over half of respondents, 51%, say they do not expect a recession in 2026. Around 27% either anticipate a downturn or believe one is already under way, down from 40% two years ago but still above the 14% recorded at the start of 2025. At the same time, uncertainty has increased, with 22% of business leaders unsure about whether a recession lies ahead.

Despite mixed views on the broader US economy, confidence at the company level remains resilient. Around 71% of respondents express optimism about their own firm’s performance in 2026, even as optimism about industry-wide performance has fallen by nine percentage points compared with a year ago. This divergence reflects a tendency for leaders to focus on areas where they have greater control and visibility as macroeconomic conditions remain fluid.

Revenue and profit expectations are largely unchanged from last year. Nearly three quarters of respondents, 73%, anticipate higher revenues in 2026, while 64% expect profits to increase. These figures suggest a steady growth mindset rather than a retrenchment in response to economic uncertainty.

When asked about challenges, uncertain economic conditions are now the most frequently cited concern, identified by 49% of respondents, compared with third place last year. Revenue and sales growth remains the second most cited issue at 33%. Tariffs have become a more prominent challenge, mentioned by 31% of business leaders, tying with workforce and labour concerns. More than half of respondents report a moderate or significant negative impact from tariffs, while 30% say tariffs have had no effect on their costs and 9% report a positive impact.

Looking ahead, product innovation and profitability are central to US business growth strategies. Around 58% plan to introduce new products or services in 2026, while 41% are prioritising their most profitable offerings. Interest in strategic partnerships and investments has risen to 49%, up from 43% last year, and appetite for mergers and acquisitions has also increased, with 39% citing M&A as a potential growth strategy.

AI features prominently in business planning. Most respondents expect to deploy AI in 2026, particularly for process automation, predictive analytics and market intelligence. Only 11% say they do not intend to use AI applications. While 60% of midsize US business leaders expect AI to have no impact on headcount, others anticipate adjustments as new tools are integrated into operations.

Ginger Chambless, head of market insights at J.P. Morgan Commercial Banking, says confidence at the company level remains robust despite ongoing uncertainty. “Despite mixed sentiment on the economic outlook, most business leaders remain confident about the year ahead for their own companies. Navigating macro uncertainty and managing through challenges has become the new normal. Midsize business leaders remain focused on driving sales and profit growth regardless of economic conditions.”

 

Trade finance demand set to rise as supply chains realign

Global demand for trade finance is expected to increase as companies diversify markets, deepen intra-regional trade and restructure supply chains, according to the latest Global Trade Finance Gap Survey from the Asian Development Bank. The survey finds that 80% of banks expect demand for trade finance to rise, reflecting ongoing shifts in global trade patterns. Despite these pressures, the global trade finance gap remains substantial. The report estimates unmet demand stood at US$2.5 trillion in 2025, unchanged from 2023 and equivalent to around 10% of global trade, down marginally from 10.6%. While the stabilisation suggests limited progress, the size of the gap continues to constrain growth by preventing many firms from accessing financing needed to support trade activity.

“Trade is central to economic development and has helped to lift millions of people from poverty,” says Isabel Chatterton, director general for private sector operations at the Asian Development Bank. “Without sufficient trade finance, the global economy risks missing out on growth opportunities. We must redouble our efforts to close the trade financing gap to unlock the full potential of trade-driven economic development to transform lives in this region and beyond.”

The ninth edition of the survey analysed data collected between 2023 and 2025 from more than 110 trade finance providers, representing up to one third of the global trade finance market. The findings suggest that supply chain reconfiguration is a key driver of demand, with firms seeking new financing solutions as production and sourcing become more regionalised.

There are tentative signs of improvement for small and medium-sized enterprises. More than 80% of banks report having dedicated strategies to support SME trade finance. For the first time, the survey indicates that rejection rates for SME trade finance applications have fallen to 41%, approaching the 40% level reported for large and mid-cap corporates. ADB notes that further analysis will be required to confirm whether this narrowing gap represents a structural shift.

Environmental, social and governance considerations remain embedded in trade finance decision-making, with nearly 90% of banks factoring ESG criteria into their assessments. However, capital outflows from ESG-focused funds have limited the role that dedicated ESG capital pools can play in narrowing the trade finance gap.

Technology adoption is also accelerating. Around 84% of banks surveyed say they already use AI for fraud prevention and risk analysis, while 57% are exploring how AI could be used to expand financing capacity.

The report highlights digitalisation of trade processes by 2030 and the scaling of supply chain finance solutions as critical priorities. By directing liquidity toward lower-tier SME suppliers, ADB argues, innovative financing structures could play a central role in closing the trade finance gap as global trade continues to evolve.

 

Swift completes tokenised bond interoperability trial with major banks

Swift has completed a digital asset interoperability trial that tested the exchange, settlement and lifecycle management of tokenised bonds across blockchain platforms and traditional financial infrastructure, working with a group of European banks. The trial involved BNP Paribas Securities Services, Intesa Sanpaolo and Société Générale’s blockchain-focused subsidiary FORGE, and focused on demonstrating how tokenised asset transactions can be coordinated as a single process using Swift’s network. It marks the first time Swift has shown delivery-versus-payment settlement, interest payments and bond redemption for tokenised securities orchestrated end to end across multiple platforms.

The transaction covered core capital markets roles, including paying agent, custodian and registrar. Tokenised bonds were settled using both fiat currency and digital currency, with the process designed to mirror established capital markets workflows rather than require institutions to operate directly on blockchain infrastructure.

The work forms part of a broader programme of digital asset experiments conducted by Swift over the past year. These have included trials linking tokenised assets to existing payment systems, settling transactions between fiat and digital currencies, and exchanging digital asset instructions via commercial bank accounts. Swift has also tested the use of ISO 20022 messaging standards to support interoperability between blockchain-based platforms and traditional financial systems.

Following these trials, Swift says it is now focused on adding a blockchain-based ledger to its technology stack. The initial use case is expected to support real-time, 24/7 cross-border payments, with development carried out in collaboration with more than 30 banks globally.

The initiative addresses a growing challenge facing capital markets as tokenisation accelerates. While financial institutions are increasingly exploring tokenised bonds, equities and other assets, adoption has so far resulted in a fragmented landscape of blockchains, proprietary protocols and isolated settlement systems. This fragmentation can create operational inefficiencies and restrict liquidity.

In the trial, Société Générale’s blockchain subsidiary provided digital asset capabilities, including its euro-denominated stablecoin, to support settlement of the tokenised bonds. BNP Paribas Securities Services and Intesa Sanpaolo acted as paying agents and custodians, with all settlement flows processed through Swift. The approach was designed to allow institutions to use existing infrastructure and standards, limiting the need for deep blockchain integration.

The trial also demonstrated how ISO 20022 messaging can be combined with blockchain-native platforms to support compliant and auditable workflows for digital securities.

Thomas Dugauquier, tokenised assets product lead at Swift, says the project highlights the role of interoperability in digital markets. “This milestone demonstrates how collaboration and interoperability will shape the future of capital markets. By proving that Swift can orchestrate multi-platform tokenised asset transactions, we’re paving the way for our members to adopt digital asset with confidence, and at scale. It’s about creating a bridge between traditional finance and emerging technologies.”

The results point to a potential model for scaling tokenised securities without requiring banks and investors to abandon existing operational frameworks, as interest in digital assets continues to expand.

 

Technology transformation tops 2026 agenda for North American CFOs

Confidence among North American chief financial officers has rebounded sharply, with finance leaders entering 2026 in a similar mindset to late 2024, but with a noticeably different set of priorities. New findings from Deloitte’s latest CFO Signals survey show a renewed focus on technology-led transformation, particularly the use of artificial intelligence across the finance function.

CFO confidence rose to 6.6 in the fourth quarter of 2025, matching the level recorded at the end of 2024 and marking a strong recovery after six months of declining sentiment. A year earlier, confidence had peaked at 5.8, its highest reading since late 2021. While sentiment has recovered, CFOs’ priorities have shifted. Enterprise risk management topped the agenda heading into 2025, but technology transformation has now taken centre stage.

The survey, which polled 200 CFOs at North American companies with revenues of at least US$1bn, identifies six core areas that finance leaders expect to focus on most in 2026.

At the top of the list is the use of digital tools to transform how finance operates. Half of respondents say digital transformation of finance is their single highest priority for the year ahead. Efficiency and productivity feature prominently among internal concerns, with automation repeatedly cited as a way to address operational strain. Cash management optimisation ranks close behind, reflecting growing reliance on advanced data analytics to support liquidity and forecasting.

AI is now firmly embedded in finance planning. Around 87% of CFOs expect AI to be extremely or very important to their finance operations in 2026. This view is broadly shared across sectors, including energy and industrials, financial services, and technology, media and telecommunications. The survey suggests AI adoption is no longer experimental, but increasingly viewed as core infrastructure.

That shift is reinforced by growing interest in AI agents. More than half of CFOs, 54%, say embedding AI agents into finance will be a top transformation priority this year, ahead of initiatives such as improving data quality and access. Nearly half of respondents who play a leading strategy role report that AI agents are already deployed within finance.

Beyond technology, CFOs are also paying close attention to changes in buyer behaviour. Almost half of respondents cite shifts in customer behaviour or demographics as one of the biggest non-economic factors likely to affect performance in 2026, second only to competitive pressure. Cost management remains a pressing internal concern, with 49% planning to hire or promote internally to help manage staffing costs.

Interest in dealmaking is also increasing. Nearly two thirds of CFOs say their appetite for mergers and acquisitions is higher than a year ago, supported by lower borrowing costs and higher equity valuations.

Commenting on the Deloitte research, Justin Gan Xu, chief quant and AI officer at MillTech, says the focus on technology transformation is well placed, but cautions against viewing it as a shortcut. “CFOs are right to put technology transformation at the top of the agenda. Used well, modern technology can genuinely help treasury teams stay ahead of risk, make better decisions, and react faster in volatile markets,” he says.

Gan Xu adds that success depends on clarity of purpose rather than the tools themselves. “Simply adding new tools doesn’t automatically make payments, FX, or liquidity management work better. The businesses getting real value are the ones that start by being clear on the problem they’re trying to solve, whether that’s visibility, control, or speed.” He also notes that “the best outcomes come when technology supports experienced treasury teams, giving them better information and more confidence to act, rather than replacing decision-making altogether.”

 

UK business confidence slides despite modest pickup in output

UK business confidence weakened sharply at the end of 2025, even as output showed tentative signs of stabilisation, according to the latest Business Trends report from BDO. The firm’s Optimism Index fell to 90.01 in December, down from 93.45 in November, marking its lowest level since January 2021. The decline reflects persistent concerns over demand, alongside subdued expectations for turnover and employment as businesses look ahead to 2026.

The fall in confidence was broad-based across both manufacturing and services. This came despite a modest improvement in activity, with BDO’s Output Index rising by 1.53 points to 98.27 in December. The increase was largely driven by stabilising conditions in the services sector, where firms reported a small rise in requests for new work.

However, the improvement in output remains limited. The Output Index continues to sit well below long-term growth levels observed over the past 25 years, pointing to only marginal progress rather than a sustained recovery. Since January 2025, the index has remained within a narrow 95 to 100 range, indicating prolonged weak growth.

Manufacturing activity remains under particular pressure. Output in the sector stayed in negative growth territory in December, with the index at 94.26. BDO points to subdued confidence and elevated operating costs as ongoing constraints on manufacturing output.

Conditions eased slightly toward the end of the year, supported by lower borrowing costs following the Bank of England’s recent rate cut and some moderation in input price pressures. Even so, the data suggest these factors have yet to translate into a meaningful uplift in business sentiment or activity. The lack of momentum was notable given the traditional strength of the final quarter of the year, often referred to as the ‘Golden Quarter’ for UK businesses.

The report highlights the close link between confidence and activity, suggesting that persistently low optimism is likely to weigh on output into 2026. While easing inflation may offer some relief on costs, uncertainty around demand and future trading conditions continues to limit firms’ willingness to invest or expand.

For corporate treasurers and finance leaders, the combination of weak confidence and only marginal improvements in output points to a challenging start to the year ahead. Liquidity management, cost control and cautious capital allocation are likely to remain priorities as businesses navigate an environment where economic conditions have stabilised but remain fragile.

 

US growth set to outpace forecasts in 2026 as inflation cools

The US economy is expected to outperform consensus forecasts in 2026, supported by stronger growth and easing inflation pressures, according to Goldman Sachs Research. The bank forecasts US GDP growth of 2.5% in 2026 on a fourth-quarter, year-on-year basis, compared with a consensus estimate of 2.1%. The outlook reflects expectations that the economic drag from tariffs will fade, offset by a boost from tax cuts. All forecasts are based on data available as of 11 January.

David Mericle, chief US economist at Goldman Sachs Research, says the bank’s outlook diverges meaningfully from prevailing market expectations. “Our strongest conviction views for 2026 are our above-consensus GDP growth forecast and our below-consensus inflation forecast,” he writes in the research note.

On inflation, Goldman Sachs Research expects core personal consumption expenditures inflation to fall to 2.1% by December 2026, while core consumer price index inflation is projected to decline to 2% over the same period. Both forecasts sit around 0.3 percentage points below current market pricing and the Federal Open Market Committee’s own projections, suggesting a faster easing in underlying price pressures than policymakers currently anticipate.

The combination of modestly stronger growth and lower policy uncertainty is expected to help stabilise labour market conditions. Goldman Sachs Research forecasts the unemployment rate will hold at around 4.5% through 2026. However, the bank cautions that the labour market remains the most uncertain element of its US outlook, given ongoing structural and policy-related shifts.

In terms of monetary policy, Goldman Sachs Research expects the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates later this year. The bank forecasts two 25 basis point reductions, in June and September, with the fed funds rate ending the easing cycle in a range of 3% to 3.25%.

The outlook points to a macro environment characterised by steady growth, moderating inflation and gradually easing financial conditions, although uncertainty around labour dynamics and policy execution is likely to remain a key variable through the year ahead.

 

StanChart executes first live digital bank guarantee using ICC-Swift API standards

Standard Chartered has completed its first live digital bank guarantee transaction using the ICC-Swift API standards, marking an early production use of the industry-wide specifications for guarantees in trade finance. The transaction was executed for a global energy company through Komgo’s Konsole platform, a multi-bank trade finance solution. It represents the first time Standard Chartered has applied the ICC-Swift API standards in a live client workflow, enabling an API-based bank guarantee to be issued digitally and processed end to end.

The use of the standards is intended to address longstanding challenges in bank guarantee issuance, including fragmented connectivity, manual processing and limited interoperability between banks and platforms. By adopting the ICC-Swift APIs, the transaction enabled real-time connectivity between Standard Chartered and Komgo’s Konsole, automating the exchange of instructions and reducing the need for bespoke integrations.

According to the parties involved, the approach simplifies integration by reducing reliance on multiple proprietary APIs. This allows guarantees initiated digitally by clients to be issued more quickly and with greater transparency, while maintaining consistency with existing trade finance processes.

The transaction was initially completed through Standard Chartered’s UK operations and is expected to be extended progressively across the bank’s global footprint. The rollout reflects a broader move by banks to operationalise industry standards rather than confining them to pilot environments.

For Komgo, the transaction demonstrates the platform’s ability to align with the ICC-Swift API standards and support interoperability across banks and corporate users. The platform is positioned as a connector between financial institutions and corporate clients seeking to digitalise trade instruments such as guarantees without increasing operational complexity.

The ICC-Swift API standards for bank guarantees were introduced in 2024 as the first industry-wide API specifications designed specifically for trade finance. They aim to create a common framework that supports real-time visibility, standardised data exchange and seamless integration of digital guarantees across banks, corporates and technology providers.

For corporate treasurers and trade finance teams, wider adoption of these standards could help reduce processing times, improve transparency across multi-bank guarantee portfolios and lower operational risk associated with manual handling. More broadly, the transaction highlights a shift from proof-of-concept activity toward live deployment of standardised digital trade infrastructure.

 

Zeni expands platform with AI-driven treasury and cash management offering

Zeni has launched a treasury and cash management product aimed at startups and growing businesses, extending its platform beyond bookkeeping and financial reporting into the management of surplus cash. The product, called Zeni Treasury, is designed to allow businesses to earn returns on idle cash while retaining full liquidity. According to the company, funds can be accessed instantly, with no minimum balance requirements or lock-up periods, positioning the product as an alternative to traditional business checking and savings accounts.

Zeni Treasury is integrated directly into the company’s existing AI-based finance platform, providing businesses with a consolidated view of their cash balances alongside bookkeeping, credit card activity and other financial data. The aim is to reduce fragmentation across financial operations and simplify cash visibility for finance teams.

Funds placed in the treasury product are invested in diversified money market funds managed by Atomic Invest LLC, an SEC-registered partner. These funds typically allocate to low-risk instruments such as US Treasuries and high-quality commercial paper, offering a structure familiar to corporate cash managers seeking capital preservation alongside yield.

Zeni positions the product as fully liquid, with no withdrawal penalties, and accessible without administrative hurdles. Treasury transactions are automatically tracked within the platform, with reconciliation and reporting handled as part of Zeni’s existing AI-supported finance services. This is intended to reduce manual effort for finance teams and support downstream processes such as reporting and tax preparation.

The treasury platform is available through the Zeni’s existing dashboard for current customers, with new users able to open accounts digitally as part of the onboarding process.

 

FIS rolls out agentic commerce capability for issuing banks

FIS has launched an offering designed to support agentic commerce, enabling banks to process transactions initiated by AI agents within existing card and payments infrastructure. The move follows the completion of FIS’s acquisition of its Total Issuing Solutions portfolio and is positioned as an extension of its issuing and payments capabilities.

Agentic commerce refers to transactions in which AI systems act on behalf of consumers, sourcing, negotiating and completing purchases using preapproved payment methods. While still at an early stage, the model is attracting growing attention as retailers and payment providers explore how AI-driven purchasing could scale within established financial frameworks.

The FIS offering is intended to allow issuing banks to identify, authorise and manage AI-initiated transactions using existing authorisation, authentication and dispute processes. By operating within current card network rules, the approach aims to ensure agent-driven transactions are handled with the same controls applied to traditional card payments.

Financial institutions play a central role in this model by providing payment infrastructure, security controls and compliance oversight. FIS says the new capability is designed to help banks remain directly involved as agentic commerce develops, rather than ceding transaction control to third-party platforms. A key focus is enabling banks to apply fraud monitoring and consumer protection measures to agent-initiated payments.

The solution is expected to be available to FIS issuing bank clients by the end of the first quarter of 2026. It is designed to support the secure use of card details and “know your agent” data, allowing issuers to assess and authorise transactions initiated by AI systems. FIS suggests the approach could help reduce chargebacks and false declines, while maintaining fraud controls as transaction patterns evolve.

The launch has been developed in collaboration with major card networks, including Visa and Mastercard, which are supporting the ability for AI agents to transact across their networks. Initial use cases are focused on transaction authorisation, fraud management and customer servicing, with further data-driven applications expected to follow.

For corporate treasurers, this news signals a shift in how payments may be initiated and authorised in future digital commerce models. As AI-driven purchasing tools mature, treasurers may need to consider how agent-initiated transactions affect controls, payment visibility and fraud monitoring, particularly in environments where procurement, expenses or subscriptions become more automated. Over time, changes in transaction flows and authorisation frameworks could also influence how corporates interact with issuing banks and card networks, even if adoption remains gradual.

 

South Jersey Transportation Authority modernises treasury operations

The South Jersey Transportation Authority has moved to a new treasury management platform as part of efforts to modernise its financial operations and reduce reliance on manual processes. The authority has adopted the full treasury management system from DebtBook, covering debt management, cash management and investment management. The platform brings these functions together within a single system, providing greater visibility over cash balances, debt schedules and investment maturities.

SJTA said the move is intended to strengthen internal controls, improve forecasting and support more informed financial decision-making. By consolidating data that was previously managed across spreadsheets and separate workflows, the system creates a centralised cash forecast and a clearer picture of liquidity across the organisation.

“For years, we managed treasury operations manually,” said Kevin Steet, chief financial officer and director of finance at the South Jersey Transportation Authority. “With DebtBook, the data from our debt schedules, cash balances, and investment maturities is now connected and flows into a centralised cash forecast. That level of visibility allows us to move faster, make decisions with greater confidence, and manage our resources more effectively.”

In addition to cash and debt oversight, the authority is using the investment management module to align investment activity more closely with cash flow needs. This includes tracking maturities and yields and automating key reporting requirements across GASB 31, 40 and 72, helping to streamline compliance and reporting processes.

The implementation reflects a broader trend among public sector organisations to adopt more integrated treasury technology, with a focus on improving transparency, reducing operational risk and supporting more strategic financial management.

 

State Street rolls out digital asset platform to support tokenised products

State Street has launched a digital asset platform designed to support the development and servicing of tokenised financial products, marking a further step by a global custodian toward integrating blockchain-based assets into mainstream financial infrastructure.

The platform provides wallet management, custody and cash capabilities for tokenised instruments, including tokenised money market funds, exchange-traded funds, tokenised securities and cash products such as tokenised deposits and regulated stablecoins. It is built to operate across jurisdictions and supports both private and public permissioned blockchain networks, with controls intended to meet institutional security, compliance and operational standards.

State Street says the platform is integrated with its existing servicing and operating infrastructure, allowing digital asset activity to sit alongside traditional custody, fund administration and cash services. The aim is to move beyond pilot projects and enable tokenisation at scale, using a single framework that connects blockchain-based products with established financial processes.

For corporate treasurers, the launch is another signal that tokenisation is moving closer to practical application within the regulated financial system. While most corporates are not yet directly issuing or holding tokenised assets, developments in areas such as tokenised money market funds and deposits could, over time, influence how surplus liquidity is invested, settled and reported. Greater involvement by global custodians also points to a future in which digital assets are supported by familiar governance, risk and control frameworks.

More broadly, the platform reflects a wider industry trend toward building interoperability between traditional finance and digital markets. As banks and custodians invest in infrastructure that supports both, treasurers may increasingly encounter tokenised instruments as part of cash management, collateral usage or capital markets activity, particularly as standards and regulatory clarity continue to evolve.

 

Deutsche Bank expands PayPal partnership across key regions

Deutsche Bank has expanded its long-standing relationship with PayPal, extending support for the payments group across the US, Europe and Asia-Pacific as both firms look to strengthen global payment capabilities. Under the expanded agreement, Deutsche Bank will scale up its role in merchant settlement and payouts for PayPal in the US, while also beginning to support withdrawals and collection services. In Europe and Asia-Pacific, the bank will provide additional payment and cash management services, building on an existing operational footprint that already processes significant transaction volumes for PayPal each year.

The move reflects a deepening of a partnership that spans more than a decade and is intended to enhance resilience and scalability within PayPal’s global payments infrastructure. By broadening Deutsche Bank’s remit across multiple regions, the arrangement is designed to support higher volumes, provide operational diversification and strengthen settlement capabilities as cross-border digital commerce continues to grow.

For Deutsche Bank, the expanded mandate reinforces its role as a global transaction banking provider to large international platforms, particularly in merchant services and cash management. For PayPal, it adds further institutional support as it continues to develop and scale commerce and payment solutions for customers worldwide.

The agreement comes as payment providers and banks increasingly focus on robustness, redundancy and geographic reach in their infrastructure, reflecting rising transaction volumes and the growing complexity of global digital payments.

The move points to how major payment platforms are strengthening bank partnerships to support scale and cross-border settlement. While it does not directly affect corporate payment tools, deeper bank integration behind platforms such as PayPal can support more reliable settlement, lower operational risk and more predictable cash flows for businesses operating internationally.