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Currency volatility impact returns big time and in 2015 will probably increase

The latest FiREapps analysis of the earnings calls of 1200 publicly traded North American and European companies* showed that, after a second quarter of relatively muted volatility, there was resurgence in volatility in the third quarter, with:

  • a total reported negative currency impact in 2014 Q3 was $8.0 billion, over double the reported negative impact from Q2 
  • the number of corporates reporting negative currency impacts increased to 9 percent over Q2
  • a significantly larger number of North American corporates reported impacts from the euro and the yen
  • European companies, more companies mentioned the Russian ruble as impactful.

Source & Copyright©2014 - FiREapps 

Another feature of the increased currency volatility was the growth in the number of analyst questions to companies about currency volatility impact on their results, see figure below:

Source & Copyright©2014 - FiREapps 

FX volatility future

FiREapps expect volatility to continue at current levels or worsen. “Indeed in the fourth quarter to date, volatility has increased substantially. Fundamental issues including the rollback of stimulus in the U.S. and eventually rising U.S. interest rates, quantitative easing in Europe, devaluation in Japan, falling oil prices, and geopolitical turmoil will continue to drive turbulence in the currency markets well into 2015.”

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* The companies included in this data set are large multinational firms with at least 15% international revenues in at least two currencies. 

For full details and report see here.

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