Cyber and compliance costs push average business losses to $98.5m per year

Operational inefficiencies, cyberthreats and regulatory hurdles are costing businesses an average of $98.5m a year, according to new research from FIS and Oxford Economics. The study, ‘The Harmony Gap: Finding the Financial Upside in Uncertainty’, surveyed 1,000 C-suite business and technology leaders across the US, UK and Singapore and sought to quantify the cumulative cost of disruption across financial, operational and technological processes.

The most widespread source of disruption identified was cyber risk, cited by 88% of respondents. More than a third said they face cyberthreats daily, while 74% reported encountering critical or high-profile threats on a monthly basis. Despite this, almost half of those surveyed said their organisation does not provide regular employee training on fraud or cyber awareness.

Fraud was the second most common concern, with 79% of firms identifying it as a key operational issue. While 83% said fraud management is a strategic priority, over half of the respondents expressed dissatisfaction with their firm’s fraud response plans. Just 59% were satisfied with the tools in place to detect and prevent fraud, and the rest cited either inadequate technology or limited oversight.

Regulatory complexity was named by 65% of respondents as another source of operational tension, particularly in areas relating to data protection and cross-border payments. Alongside compliance and cyber risk, other sources of disruption included illiquidity, manual errors, reputational damage and skills gaps in financial technology.

The survey also pointed to payment processing as a significant friction point. Over half of all respondents said their firm experiences more operational tension when money is in motion, such as during transfers through credit and debit networks, than in other parts of the money lifecycle. Although 79% had adopted automated payment systems, 57% still experienced transaction delays at least once a month.

The findings suggest that firms with dedicated fintech teams are better equipped to mitigate these risks. Among respondents with in-house or outsourced fintech capabilities, 85% said they felt well prepared to tackle operational friction, and 83% reported a direct uplift in sales following the adoption of embedded financial solutions.

Embedded finance and digital integration were common themes across the top-performing organisations. Four in five firms surveyed said they had adopted embedded finance tools, reporting an average 8.5% growth in sales. However, the insurance sector appeared to lag behind, with only 52% of respondents in that industry reporting the presence of a fintech team, compared to 74% across the full survey sample.

Looking to the future, more than half of the respondents said their companies are investing in technologies such as generative AI and machine learning to improve agility and responsiveness. However, implementation remains a challenge. Cost was cited as the leading barrier to adoption by 73%, followed by a lack of internal expertise (64%) and difficulty integrating with legacy systems (58%).

Despite these obstacles, over half of the firms surveyed plan to use AI to help them respond more quickly to market shifts, while nearly half see it as a tool to drive customer acquisition.

 

J.P. Morgan maintains 60% US recession risk as tariffs hit sentiment and growth

J.P. Morgan Research has maintained its estimate that the probability of a US recession in 2025 stands at 60%, citing the impact of escalating trade restrictions and a deteriorating policy backdrop. The latest analysis follows sweeping tariff measures enacted by the Trump administration, including a 145% levy on Chinese imports and a 10% universal tariff on all other trading partners. These moves lift the average US tariff rate to approximately 30%, according to J.P. Morgan Research.

On a pre-substitution basis, the new tariffs are equivalent to a $1 trillion tax hike – around 3% of US GDP – making it the largest single tax increase on US households and businesses since World War II. Although actual payments may be lower due to a reduction in trade flows, the indirect effects on business confidence, global supply chains and retaliatory action are expected to amplify the economic fallout.

“What remains is still enough to push the US and China – and thus likely the global economy – into a recession this year,” said Bruce Kasman, chief global economist at J.P. Morgan. The firm notes that sentiment-driven contractions, combined with continued restrictive immigration and trade policies, may also impair longer-term growth potential.

J.P. Morgan anticipates that the looming downturn could be less severe than the last two recessions, but warns that recessions are difficult to predict, particularly in the face of persistent supply shocks. “Another important concern is that sustained restrictive trade policies and reduced immigration flow may impose lasting supply costs, which will lower US growth over the long run,” Kasman added.

Despite tariff pressures, inflation forecasts for 2025 have been revised downward slightly. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index is now expected to reach 3.9% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024. The revision is based on softer March data and expectations that tariffs will weigh more on growth than prices.

In response, J.P. Morgan Research now expects the Federal Reserve to begin easing interest rates in September, rather than June. Its base case assumes a 25-basis-point cut at each meeting through January 2026, bringing the federal funds rate to 3.0% by mid-2026.

A similar monetary response is expected internationally, with policymakers likely to prioritise growth over inflation as the trade shock ripples across sectors. J.P. Morgan also anticipates that fiscal policy will become more supportive even ahead of a full recession scenario, as governments respond to emerging risks across key industries.

 

Komgo launches trade finance platform for corporates

Komgo has launched a new enterprise application designed to streamline the digital management of guarantees and trade finance instruments. The platform, called Global Trade Konnect (GTK), brings together several existing Komgo tools into a single interface, with a focus on simplifying workflows for large corporates.

GTK enables users to manage both incoming and outgoing trade instruments, including letters of credit, standby letters of credit, bank and corporate guarantees, and sureties. It also offers centralised visibility over credit facility usage across financial partners and geographies.

The platform is built on cloud infrastructure and designed to integrate with corporate systems such as treasury management solutions (TMS) and enterprise resource planning (ERP) platforms. Key features include automated communication with banks, internal reconciliation tools, alerts, and a suite of reporting capabilities.

GTK also incorporates elements of artificial intelligence. For example, users can generate draft letters of credit from purchase orders or pro forma invoices using AI-driven document recognition. A clause-checking tool scans incoming documents against internal policies and a clause library to flag potential issues. The platform also includes a natural language reporting assistant, allowing users to query large datasets without the need for technical skills.

Komgo says the platform has been built with regulatory compliance in mind. AI models are hosted within the firm’s own infrastructure, with data segregation and privacy controls aligned with the EU’s forthcoming AI Act. The system is also SOC 1 and SOC 2 Type II–compliant.

By consolidating trade finance functions into one system, GTK aims to help corporates increase visibility, reduce operational risk, and prepare for the safe adoption of AI technologies in financial operations.

 

Swift unveils cross-border payments solution to cut investigation costs

Swift has launched an enhanced case management solution designed to streamline the investigation of delayed cross-border payments, a process that currently costs the global financial sector over US$1.6bn annually. According to new research cited by the organisation, the updated platform could reduce industry-wide operational and liquidity costs by more than US$600m each year.

The solution addresses a persistent issue in cross-border transactions: payment delays caused by missing or incomplete information. These issues often require manual intervention, with investigations typically taking between five and ten working days to resolve. Some of the world’s largest banks are estimated to spend more than US$20m each year in fees and penalties related to these delays.

Swift’s new capability supports both Swift and non-Swift payments, provided they include a Unique End-to-End Transaction Reference (UETR). The UETR enables financial institutions to trace a payment’s status and location throughout its lifecycle, and its use is becoming increasingly standardised across networks.

By automating the investigation process, Swift’s case management platform reduces the need for manual exchanges between sending and receiving institutions. It incorporates ISO 20022 messaging standards and provides a centralised mechanism to handle disputes and queries. The company estimates that the time to resolve a case could be reduced by up to 80%.

The launch is part of Swift’s broader effort to eliminate friction in international payments and aligns with the G20’s roadmap for enhancing the speed, cost and transparency of cross-border transactions. Currently, around 90% of payments on the Swift network reach the end bank within one hour, but exceptions still generate high operational burdens when they occur. More than 30 financial institutions have already trialled the enhanced case management solution, and it is now available to all members of the Swift global community.

 

Moody’s warns tariffs to weigh on credit conditions and raise default risks

Moody’s has warned that recent US trade measures, including sweeping new tariffs, will likely weaken global credit conditions and raise corporate default risks. While the credit ratings agency does not anticipate immediate rating actions, it says more significant and sustained shifts in policy could lead to downgrades over the coming quarters.

The warning follows the US administration’s early April decision to introduce broad new tariffs on imports, with an eventual move to a 10% universal tariff on most trading partners and a sharp increase to 145% on goods from China. Although implementation has been delayed by 90 days, Moody’s said the changes have already unsettled markets and increased the likelihood of a global economic recession.

According to the ratings agency, continued policy uncertainty is likely to dampen business investment, complicate planning decisions, and erode consumer confidence. While Moody’s ratings are designed to remain stable through shorter-term disruptions, they may be revised if the credit impact of trade measures proves material and lasting.

Moody’s expects the tariffs to persist in some form due to their revenue-generating potential for the US government. While legal and diplomatic challenges may lead to concessions, the agency believes the overall trade landscape has shifted. As a result, sector risk profiles, particularly those most exposed to international trade, may change significantly.

The broader macroeconomic impact is also expected to be substantial. Moody’s said the tariffs could shave at least one percentage point from US GDP growth, with inflation likely to remain elevated in the short term. The Federal Reserve is forecast to hold interest rates steady for now, with cuts expected later in 2025.

China’s growth trajectory will also be challenged unless substantial fiscal stimulus is introduced. Europe’s largest economies are expected to feel secondary effects as global trade slows. Moody’s noted that the credit impact will not be uniform. Speculative-grade companies with high debt exposure are particularly vulnerable. In contrast, most banks and sovereigns are expected to face indirect risks linked to broader economic weakening.

 

UK inflation slows in March as core pressures ease

UK inflation continued to ease in March, with both headline and core measures showing signs of gradual disinflation amid falling prices in key categories such as recreation, motor fuels and household services. The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 2.6% in the 12 months to March 2025, down from 2.8% in February. On a monthly basis, CPI increased by 0.3%, compared with 0.6% in March last year. The slowdown brings headline inflation closer to the Bank of England’s 2% target, though services inflation remains relatively elevated.

Core CPI, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, also edged lower. It rose by 3.4% in the year to March, down from 3.5% in February. The moderation in core inflation was supported by a continued deceleration in both goods and services prices. Goods inflation eased from 0.8% to 0.6%, while services inflation slowed from 5.0% to 4.7%.

The main downward contributions to the fall in CPI came from the recreation and culture category, where prices increased by less than they did a year ago, and from motor fuels, where prices fell slightly on the month. Clothing prices also contributed to monthly inflation but were offset by declines in other categories.

The latest figures suggest a gradual unwinding of inflationary pressures across the UK economy. However, with core services inflation still above 4%, policymakers are likely to remain cautious. The Bank of England has previously flagged the importance of services and wage-related inflation in its assessment of underlying price dynamics.

Meanwhile, the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) rose by 3.4% in the year to March, down from 3.7% in February. The monthly rate for CPIH was also 0.3%, half the rate recorded a year earlier. The owner occupiers’ housing (OOH) component, which accounts for around 17% of CPIH, continued to rise but at a slower pace, contributing to the overall decline in the annual rate. The ONS notes that while CPIH and CPI are driven by many of the same factors, the inclusion of OOH costs makes CPIH its most comprehensive measure of inflation.

Compared to neighbouring major economies, UK inflation remains relatively high. UK CPI of 2.6% in March compares unfavourably with 2.3% in Germany and just 0.9% in France.

 

Tariffs expected to weaken the US dollar

Changes in US trade policy are having a significant impact on the country's currency, according to Goldman Sachs Research.

The increase in trade tensions and other uncertainty-raising policies are eroding consumer and business confidence, Michael Cahill, Goldman Sachs Research's senior currency strategist, writes in his team's report. The team finds that changing perceptions of US governance and institutions are also affecting the appeal of US assets for foreign investors, and the rapid back-and-forth on policy decisions makes it difficult for investors to price outcomes other than high uncertainty.

Goldman Sachs Research anticipates the US dollar's weakness against its major peers during the first quarter of 2025 will persist.

“We have previously argued that the US's exceptional return prospects are responsible for the dollar's strong valuation,” Cahill writes. “But if tariffs weigh on US firms' profit margins and US consumers' real incomes, they can erode that exceptionalism and, in turn, crack the central pillar of the strong dollar.”

 

Corpay adds virtual card feature to accounts payable platform

Corpay has expanded its Corpay Complete platform with a new virtual card feature for accounts payable, offering businesses another option to manage spend, streamline payments and improve visibility across their finance functions.

The new feature, Virtual Card for Accounts Payable (VCAP), enables businesses to integrate virtual card payments into their existing systems without changing current workflows. Corpay says the service is designed to work alongside traditional ACH and cheque payments, offering a flexible model that can be adopted with or without additional outsourcing.

The VCAP function is supported by Corpay’s vendor engagement services, which include supplier file analysis, card opportunity identification and ongoing outreach. The company also facilitates card payments for suppliers who only accept web or phone transactions and acts as a point of contact for vendor queries, including unprocessed transactions.

VCAP is aimed at helping customers unlock additional rebate revenue and optimise cash flow through virtual card usage. According to Corpay, the feature supports a wide range of accounts payable use cases, from routine supplier payments to fast, one-time disbursements.

 

GTCR to sell Worldpay to Global Payments for $24.25bn in three-way deal

Private equity firm GTCR has agreed to sell Worldpay to Global Payments for $24.25bn in a transaction that also sees FIS acquire Global Payments’ Issuer Solutions business. The two linked deals represent a significant reshaping of the global payments landscape and are expected to be completed in the first half of 2026, subject to regulatory approvals.

GTCR originally acquired a 55% stake in Worldpay from FIS in July 2023, with FIS retaining the remaining 45%. Under the new agreement, Global Payments will purchase the full company from both GTCR and FIS using a combination of cash and stock. Simultaneously, FIS will acquire Global Payments’ Issuer Solutions business for $13.5bn.

As part of the deal, GTCR will receive 59% of its consideration in cash and 41% in stock, resulting in an ownership stake of approximately 15% in the combined Global Payments business upon closing. GTCR will continue to support the integration and future growth of the combined company.

Since its carve-out from FIS, Worldpay has undergone a period of strategic transformation under the leadership of CEO Charles Drucker, who rejoined the company as part of GTCR’s investment. The firm has expanded its global processing capabilities, enhanced fraud prevention tools, and focused on e-commerce growth.

The transaction marks another milestone in GTCR’s long-standing focus on the payments sector. Advisors on the deal included Wells Fargo for Worldpay, Morgan Stanley for GTCR, and legal counsel from Kirkland & Ellis and Paul Hastings.

The completion of both transactions is cross-conditioned, meaning they are contingent on one another and will close simultaneously once approvals are secured.

 

DBS and Henderson Land agree HK$5bn sustainability and social loan

DBS Bank Hong Kong and Henderson Land Development have closed a HK$5bn bilateral multi-tranche facility that includes both sustainability-linked and social loan components. The deal supports Henderson Land’s general funding requirements while aligning with its broader environmental and social objectives.

The structure includes a four-year sustainability-linked loan (SLL) of HK$2bn, a five-year SLL of HK$2.9bn, and a HK$100m social loan. The facility is designed to support the property developer’s 2030 sustainability roadmap and broader ESG agenda.

DBS and Henderson Land jointly developed tailored sustainability performance targets to reflect the company’s current ESG position and future goals. For the social loan portion, proceeds will be allocated to projects identified as eligible under the firm’s framework, including initiatives such as Transitional Housing and Community Living Room.

“This significant financing agreement with DBS Hong Kong reinforces our commitment to sustainability and social responsibility, including reducing construction site accidents, while advancing our goals of sustained growth,” said Andrew Fung, Executive Director and CFO of Henderson Land. “We remain dedicated to strategies that prioritise environmental stewardship, innovation for future, community care and social value. We look forward to seeing the positive impact this facility will have on the local community.”

 

JPMorgan expands blockchain payments network to support British pound

It has been widely reported that JPMorgan has added support for the British pound to its blockchain-based payments network, enabling corporate clients to process sterling-denominated transactions using the bank’s Kinexys platform. The expansion allows clients to hold and transfer funds in pounds via JPM Coin, the bank’s digital token system designed for wholesale payments. The move follows the introduction of euro capabilities last year and reflects growing demand for blockchain-based settlement in multiple currencies.

According to Bloomberg, the addition of sterling aims to enhance cross-border payment efficiency and liquidity management for multinational corporations operating in the UK and Europe. The Kinexys platform facilitates real-time, programmable payments, offering an alternative to traditional settlement systems that can be slower and more costly.

JPM Coin was first launched in 2019 to support US dollar transactions and has since processed billions of dollars in payments for institutional clients. The system operates on a permissioned blockchain and is intended to streamline interbank transfers by reducing settlement times and operational friction.

The inclusion of the British pound is part of JPMorgan’s broader strategy to expand its blockchain capabilities and meet the evolving needs of its global client base. Bloomberg reports that the bank continues to invest in digital asset infrastructure to support a range of services, including tokenised deposits and programmable payments.

 

Wells Fargo expands tech banking team amid positive sector outlook

Wells Fargo has expanded its Technology Banking division by 20% over the past year, marking the group’s largest investment in talent since its inception 25 years ago. The move comes as the bank signals a confident outlook for the US tech sector, citing growth in IT spending, artificial intelligence and innovation. The Technology Banking group now comprises more than 60 bankers, with further hires planned for 2025. The team operates in tech hubs across the country, including San Francisco, New York, Boston, Austin and Chicago, and supports clients across software, fintech, semiconductors, e-commerce, business services and sustainable tech.

The expansion includes new relationship managers across all major regions. Dzung Nguyen leads the East Coast practice from New York City, having joined from Bank of America in 2024. In Denver, Matt Servatius heads up the Central region, while Jim Bryski runs the West Coast practice from the Bay Area. All three report to Tom Harper, executive for Wells Fargo Technology Banking.

The bank says the hires reflect its commitment to building long-term partnerships with tech clients at all stages of growth. The group serves early, growth and mature-stage companies and is backed by Wells Fargo’s national commercial banking network. Technology Banking is part of the bank’s Specialized Industries group, which includes sector-specific teams across healthcare, government, financial sponsors, food and agribusiness, higher education and other verticals. The division is led by Mary Katherine DuBose, who described technology as a priority sector for the bank.

Wells Fargo also plans to publish a Tech Sentiment study later this spring, exploring the views of tech founders and investors in New York and Boston. The research is intended to capture key concerns and opportunities shaping the venture ecosystem for the remainder of 2025.