Dollar gains ground as euro outlook darkens

J.P. Morgan Global Research has upgraded its US dollar outlook as resilient labour data, firmer inflation and a more hawkish Federal Reserve support the currency, while turning bearish on the euro.

“Late 2025 and early 2026 saw the dollar on the back foot, with a second round of Fed easing to support the labour market and flows turning decisively away from the US,” observed Meera Chandan, co-head of global FX strategy at J.P. Morgan. “In March, the Middle East conflict short-circuited that dollar-bearish environment through a volatility spike. And now, there is evidence that the dollar is gaining support from more organic US-specific developments.”

After the US Dollar Index recovered from a four-year low reached early in 2026, the bank upgraded its view in mid-May. “The labour market is showing more signs of demand stabilisation after months of softness that weighed heavily on the dollar, and inflation surprises are also starting to challenge expectations of limited pass-through to core,” Chandan said. “Meanwhile, US equities are in the midst of a great run, reinvigorating the notion of dollar-positive US exceptionalism via strength in the tech sector.”

Fed pricing has also shifted. “That bias is essentially neutralising, however, following the Fed’s hawkish and unexpected dissents against keeping an easing bias in its April meeting statement,” Chandan noted. J.P. Morgan expects a rate increase in the third quarter of 2027, with risks tilted towards an earlier move.

Euro expectations have weakened as growth and rate differentials move in the dollar’s favour. “Two bearish euro forces have intensified in recent weeks,” Chandan said. “First, the relative growth divergence between the EU and the US has widened. Second, the hawkish Fed repricing has moved rate differentials in favour of the dollar both in real and nominal terms.”

EUR/USD is forecast between 1.13 and 1.15 over the next three quarters, down from 1.20 previously. “Underlying assumptions for this forecast are that European sentiment stays subdued relative to the US,” Chandan added.

Sterling also faces political pressure. “Over the coming weeks, we look for politics to dominate, but the problem will be the tradability of this theme,” Chandan said. “Any political leadership contest will be a multi-month process, with results not likely to become clear until September. Importantly, scant details will be available on fiscal plans in the run-up as well, since candidates will not want to foray into areas that could roil markets ahead of the contest.” Forecasts put EUR/GBP around 0.88-0.89 and GBP/USD between 1.31 and 1.34.

Yen weakness is expected to persist. “While the yen has appreciated against most other G-10 currencies in recent weeks, its gains have been limited to 0.1% versus the dollar and 0.5% on a trade-weighted basis. Considering that a yen-buying intervention by the Ministry of Finance (MoF) on the order of JPY8-9 trillion is believed to have been conducted over the same period, these gains can be described as relatively modest,” Chandan noted. USD/JPY targets remain 158 for the second quarter, 160 for the third and 164 for the fourth.

 

Business travel holds firm as costs climb

Business travel volumes held broadly steady during the first five months of 2026 despite rising airfare, hotel and ground transport costs, according to global data from SAP Concur. Companies largely absorbed the higher prices rather than cutting trips, suggesting in-person meetings and employee travel remain priorities.

Airfares rose by more than 8% year on year between 1 January and 31 May, while hotel rates increased by nearly 6% and car rental costs climbed by roughly 5%. For finance teams, those movements point to greater pressure on travel budgets without a corresponding fall in overall activity.

Fuel expenses recorded the sharpest increase. The average transaction in Concur Expense’s fuel category rose by approximately 22% globally, climbing from US$50 in February to US$61 in April. SAP Concur said similar spikes appeared across multiple countries, underlining the extent to which transport costs are feeding into corporate travel spend.

Booking volumes for air travel and hotels remained relatively flat year on year, suggesting companies largely absorbed the higher prices rather than cutting trips. Some changes emerged within ground transport, however. Car rental bookings declined by roughly 4% globally, while rail bookings increased by approximately 4%, indicating a modest shift towards alternative transport as fuel costs rose.

Premium travel also held up. Business and first-class bookings increased by about 9% year on year, while economy bookings were flat and premium economy bookings fell by approximately 15%. The pattern suggests some employers continue to support higher-cost cabin options, particularly for longer or international journeys, despite tighter scrutiny of trip economics.

That resilience may test travel policies if prices continue to rise. Companies could face a sharper trade-off between preserving access to in-person meetings and controlling travel and expense budgets, particularly where airline capacity remains constrained.

Early signs of softer demand are beginning to appear in some markets, where higher average airfares and reduced airline capacity could influence travel decisions during the second half of the year. SAP Concur said the coming months will show whether these pressures cause a temporary adjustment or a broader change in corporate travel behaviour.

A separate US survey conducted on behalf of SAP Concur found 90% of frequent business travellers believe work-related travel has positively affected their careers. That finding supports the view that companies continue to weigh employee development and relationship-building benefits against rising costs.

“As organisations navigate higher travel costs in 2026, the data suggests many still view business travel as a worthwhile investment in relationships, employee development and long-term growth,” said Charlie Sultan, president of Concur Travel at SAP.

 

UK businesses stay confident as global risks mount

UK businesses remain confident in their ability to withstand global economic shocks, even as rising costs and supply chain disruption weigh on operations, according to the Lloyds Business Barometer. More than eight in 10 companies, or 84%, said they were confident they could absorb economic shocks. Despite 57% reporting an impact from recent global uncertainty, the same proportion still expects to grow this year, while 30% anticipates trading at unchanged levels.

Cost pressures remain the most common consequence, cited by 45% of respondents, followed by supply chain disruption at 37%. The survey, conducted by Ipsos between 30 April and 18 May, covered 1,200 UK companies across all regions and sectors.

Strategic responses are already under way. Some 59% of businesses said they were actively adjusting their approach to global economic conditions and uncertainty. Among those taking action, 51% have introduced cost-saving measures. Another 35% have increased inventory, while the same share has locked in commodity, raw material or other input prices to reduce exposure to market volatility.

Financial tools are also playing a central role. Three-quarters of companies said they had the appropriate support and instruments to mitigate economic shocks linked to global volatility.

Cash flow forecasting is the most widely used approach among that group, cited by 46%. Working capital facilities or overdrafts are used by 30%, while 19% have deployed interest rate hedging. Those figures suggest companies are combining operational changes with closer liquidity planning and funding protection.

“What we’re seeing from businesses is not just resilience, but decisive action in the face of ongoing uncertainty,” commented Amanda Murphy, CEO for Lloyds Business and Commercial Banking. “Across sectors like manufacturing, logistics and food production, firms are taking practical steps to protect their operations, increasing inventory and locking in costs where they can. Many also recognise that global supply chain challenges and energy market volatility are structural issues, not temporary blips. In response, businesses are managing costs, securing supply and building greater resilience into their operating models.”

The findings point to a corporate sector preserving growth plans while tightening control over cash, funding and input costs. Confidence remains high, but companies are placing greater emphasis on protection against volatility.

 

Danish payment providers move kroner clearing to STEP2

Danish payment providers will move bulk account-to-account transactions in kroner onto EBA Clearing’s STEP2 infrastructure, with the service scheduled to go live in November 2026. STEP2 DKK will process domestic retail bulk payments and mirror the existing STEP2 SEPA Credit Transfer service. Clearing Services, a subsidiary of Finans Danmark, will operate the system under an agreed model with EBA Clearing.

All Danish payment service providers are already connected and taking part in testing, according to the companies. Migration from the country’s existing clearing platform is expected to be completed by April 2027.

Using STEP2 for both euro and kroner payments is intended to reduce duplicated infrastructure and simplify operations for Danish providers that already rely on the platform for SEPA transactions. The arrangement could also lower investment requirements by reusing existing connectivity and processing capabilities. Line Munkholm Haukrogh, chief executive of Clearing Services, said the model would combine “standardised pan-European payment rails” with continued local customer support.

Putting domestic currency processing onto infrastructure already used for high-volume euro clearing could reduce operational complexity for banks and payment providers. STEP2 currently provides reach for SEPA credit transfers and direct debits to more than 4,800 payment service providers across participating countries and processes over 70m transactions a day on average.

Denmark’s approach may also be watched by other national payment communities assessing whether domestic bulk clearing can be moved onto shared European infrastructure without giving up local operating support. Its success will depend on preserving service continuity while delivering the expected operational savings.

 

European payment sovereignty wins support but security drives choice

European consumers and payments executives are increasingly concerned that geopolitical tensions could disrupt access to foreign-controlled payment networks, but security and acceptance remain more important than sovereignty when choosing how to pay, according to a report from Enfuce.

The report, ‘Payment Sovereignty: Consumers Are Paying Attention’, is based on 3,000 consumers and 500 senior executives at European payment providers. It found 62% of consumers fear political tensions could restrict or stop payments in their market, with concern rising to around three-quarters among providers.

Support for greater local control is stronger still. Some 73% of consumers and 97% of providers say it is important for the UK and EU to exercise greater control over payment systems, while 60% of consumers want to reduce dependence on US-owned technologies more broadly.

Dependence on the largest global networks is widely understood. Around 67% of consumers believe they would struggle to pay, or would be unable to do so, without Visa or Mastercard. Meanwhile, 60% of consumers and 67% of providers see the concentration of payments among a small number of global companies as a problem.

Political intervention is a particular concern. Some 59% of consumers fear the US government could instruct American-owned networks to restrict or halt payments in their market, while 61% worry that political pressure alone could produce restrictions. Roughly 77% of providers share both concerns.

Commercial adoption will still depend on practical performance. Only one in five consumers would choose a payment method primarily because it was locally owned. Security is the leading switching factor at 43%, followed by acceptance at 40% and privacy at 29%. Even so, 43% would sacrifice some convenience for greater payment sovereignty.

Wero has attracted strong provider interest, with 85% having implemented or planning to implement the European payment method. Another 74% believe local alternatives will be commercially viable within a decade and 66% expect an alternative to offer better value than existing global networks.

Europe’s push for payment sovereignty may therefore rely on coexistence rather than replacement. Some 67% of providers believe greater control can be achieved without displacing established global networks, leaving local schemes to prove they can match their reach, security and everyday usability.

 

CBI brings Request to Pay into corporate collections

CBI has extended its Request to Pay service to corporate collections, allowing businesses to send structured digital payment requests through participating payment service providers in Italy and across the SEPA area. Built with EBA Clearing’s Request to Pay infrastructure and Nexi technology, the service integrates payment requests into corporate systems and delivers them through internet and mobile banking channels. Customers can then approve payments without manually entering account or reference data.

CBI already uses the same infrastructure for payments to the Italian public administration. Its expansion into business collections is intended to support faster receipt of funds, clearer payment tracking and more predictable due-date management.

Pre-filled information and timely notifications are also designed to reduce errors and fraud exposure. Payment requests remain separate from final authorisation, giving the payer visibility over the transaction and the identity of the requesting party before funds are released.

Automated reconciliation can feed payment information back into accounting systems, potentially reducing manual processing and improving cash application. More granular reporting may also support liquidity planning and cash flow forecasting, particularly for companies managing large volumes of customer payments.

Alignment with European standards and electronic invoicing processes could open further cross-border use cases. The companies also expect the service to work alongside other digital payment tools, including CBILL.

For corporate finance teams, the value will depend on whether banks and payment providers can turn the messaging layer into quicker collections, lower administrative costs and cleaner reconciliation without adding complexity to existing systems.

 

AFP and Kyriba launch stablecoin training for treasurers

The Association for Financial Professionals (AFP) and Kyriba have launched a certificate programme on stablecoins and on-chain liquidity, aimed at giving treasury professionals a practical grounding in digital assets, governance and operational readiness.

Developed jointly by the AFP and Kyriba, the course provides around eight hours of on-demand content. Participants can earn 7.8 Certified Treasury Professional credits and receive a digital badge and printable certificate within 72 hours of completion.

Four modules cover the regulatory landscape, instrument design, governance, security, payments, reconciliation, liquidity management and counterparty relationships. Later sections focus on organisational readiness, pilot design and how treasury teams can assess whether stablecoins or other on-chain instruments suit their operating model.

The launch comes as companies are under pressure to form clearer positions on digital assets while regulation and institutional use continue to develop. Research from EY cited in the announcement found that more than half of financial institutions expect to adopt stablecoins within 12 months, compared with 13% currently using them.

For treasury teams, the subject carries practical questions around accounting treatment, settlement risk, counterparty exposure, liquidity access and policy approval. A formal training programme could help organisations build a common internal language before deciding whether to test or adopt the technology.

Access is available through AFP Learn and Kyriba Elevate. The first 500 Kyriba customers to enrol will receive complimentary access. Its introduction reflects a wider shift in the stablecoin debate, with attention extending towards treasury governance, controls and implementation.

 

State Street launches stablecoin reserve MMF

State Street Investment Management has launched a government money market fund (MMF) designed for stablecoin issuers seeking to hold reserve assets within the framework created by the GENIUS Act.

Registered under Rule 2a-7, the State Street Stablecoin Reserves Money Market Fund is intended to invest stablecoin reserves in eligible government money market assets. The GENIUS Act, passed by the US Congress in July 2025, established rules allowing funds registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940 to support stablecoin issuance.

Initial investors are State Street Bank and Trust Company and Anchorage Digital. Their participation links the fund to both traditional custody infrastructure and a federally chartered US crypto bank.

For issuers, reserve management is becoming a more visible operational and regulatory issue as stablecoin use expands. A dedicated money market vehicle could provide a structure for holding liquid, high-quality assets while meeting redemption needs and maintaining oversight of reserve portfolios.

Citi Institute research cited by State Street projects global stablecoin issuance of between US$1.9 trillion and US$4 trillion by 2030. Any growth on that scale could increase demand for government securities and MMFs used to back tokens in circulation. The launch follows State Street’s introduction of an on-chain liquidity sweep fund designed to support 24/7 cash management through stablecoins, subject to portfolio availability.

Its significance will depend on how issuers, regulators and institutional investors interpret the GENIUS Act in practice. Reserve quality, liquidity access and transparency are likely to remain central as stablecoins move further into regulated financial markets.

 

Elavon expands integrated payments platform across North America

Elavon has expanded its All-In-One payments platform across North America, bringing payment acceptance, point-of-sale software and operational tools together for merchants in hospitality, healthcare and retail. The platform combines Elavon’s payments infrastructure with technology from partner providers, allowing businesses to manage in-store, mobile and online transactions through a more unified setup. Elavon says the approach is intended to reduce operational complexity while giving merchants greater flexibility over software, devices and processing arrangements.

At the centre of the expansion is a collaboration with Castles Technology, whose Android-based devices combine point-of-sale software and payment acceptance in a single mobile unit. The model is designed for environments where staff need to take orders and payments away from a fixed checkout, including restaurants, hotels and other service-led businesses.

Partner integrations include Agilysys, Oracle, Shiji and xnPOS. Their applications connect with Elavon-powered Castles devices to support mobile ordering, payment acceptance and service management in hospitality and other field-based settings.

Unlike bundled point-of-sale packages that link software and processing under one pricing structure, Elavon’s model is designed to allow merchants to combine its payment infrastructure with selected partner technology. The company says this could help businesses lower costs over time and adapt systems as operational needs change.

The practical test for merchants will be whether the platform improves transaction speed, staff mobility and cross-channel consistency without creating additional integration work. Its expansion reflects wider demand for payment systems that connect more closely with operational software rather than sitting as a separate layer.

 

Swift appoints Manos to steer quantum security push

Swift has appointed Michael Manos as chief information officer, putting him in charge of technology platform strategy as the messaging network prepares for post-quantum cryptography, wider AI use and greater adoption of blockchain and tokenisation.

Manos will oversee network, security and cloud capabilities across infrastructure used by 11,500 banks, financial institutions and corporates. Swift says users send the equivalent of global GDP across its systems every three days, making service continuity and cyber resilience central to the role.

A major priority will be the organisation’s multi-year move towards cryptographic standards designed to withstand quantum threats. He will also lead Swift’s response to frontier AI and its work to introduce digital technologies without disrupting interoperability across the financial system.

Manos joins from Dun & Bradstreet, where he was chief technology officer. His career spans more than 30 years and includes senior roles at Fiserv, AOL and Microsoft, covering technology operations, infrastructure, platform automation and the development of banking, payments and e-commerce platforms. He replaces Cheri McGuire, who has served as chief technology officer since 2021 and is retiring.

Javier Pérez-Tasso, chief executive officer of Swift, said: “As the financial industry and technological landscape continues to evolve, Michael will lead our efforts to continue to invest in the resilience and security of our platforms as the company embraces digital technologies and enables responsible innovation.”