Energy shock tests global growth outlook

The global economy is expected to maintain modest growth over the next two years, but rising energy costs and geopolitical uncertainty are beginning to weigh on the outlook, according to the OECD’s latest Interim Economic Outlook.

Global growth is forecast at 2.9% in 2026 and 3.0% in 2027, reflecting a slowdown from the trajectory expected prior to the escalation of conflict in the Middle East. The shift is driven primarily by an energy supply shock, which is feeding through into higher inflation and dampening activity across major economies.

Heading into 2026, economic conditions had been relatively stable, supported by strong technology-related production, lower effective tariffs on US imports and momentum carried over from the previous year. That backdrop has weakened as higher energy prices begin to filter through to both businesses and consumers.

Regional projections point to a broad-based moderation. US GDP is forecast to grow by 2.0% in 2026 before easing to 1.7% in 2027. The eurozone is expected to expand by 0.8% in 2026 and 1.2% in 2027, while China’s growth is projected to slow to 4.4% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027.

Inflation is also expected to remain elevated for longer than previously anticipated. Headline inflation across G20 economies is projected at 4.0% in 2026, before easing to 2.7% in 2027. The upward revision reflects the impact of higher global energy prices, with knock-on effects likely to be felt across food and production costs.

“The energy supply shock from the evolving conflict in the Middle East is testing the resilience of the global economy. We project global growth will remain robust, but it will be slower than the pre-conflict trajectory, with significantly higher inflation,” says Mathias Cormann, Secretary-General of the OECD.

Uncertainty around the duration and severity of the conflict remains a key risk. Current projections assume that disruptions to energy supply will ease over time, with prices stabilising into 2027. However, a more prolonged disruption, including continued constraints on oil and gas production or sustained interruptions to exports through the Strait of Hormuz, would likely push inflation higher and further weaken growth.

Beyond energy markets, secondary effects are also emerging. Higher fertiliser and fuel costs risk feeding into food price inflation, particularly affecting lower-income households. In Europe, elevated energy prices may increase the cost of replenishing gas reserves, while financial markets could face additional volatility as sovereign yields rise, adding pressure to public finances.

Policymakers are therefore expected to face a delicate balancing act. The OECD says central banks should remain focused on anchoring inflation expectations, while fiscal authorities are encouraged to target support measures carefully, given constrained budgets. Over the longer term, improving energy efficiency and reducing reliance on fossil fuel imports are seen as key to strengthening resilience against future shocks.

 

AI uptake rises but friction still shapes B2B loyalty

European B2B buyers are increasingly turning to AI and digital tools in purchasing and payments, but persistent friction in invoicing and onboarding continues to shape supplier choice, according to research commissioned by TreviPay.

The study, based on 550 B2B buyers across the UK, France, Germany, Spain and Australia, finds that nearly 80% of respondents now use AI technologies in purchasing and payment processes either always or often. The shift reflects growing demand for automation and data-driven decision-making, though adoption remains uneven across markets.

AI is most commonly used to improve decision-making through data insights (20%), strengthen fraud prevention and risk management (16%) and reduce manual processes. However, regional differences are pronounced. In Germany and France, where regulatory and compliance requirements are more stringent, adoption is more cautious and closely tied to specific use cases such as invoice tracking and automated matching of invoices to purchase orders.

Despite this growing use of technology, operational friction remains a defining feature of the B2B buying experience. Buyers report ongoing challenges including incorrect invoices, inconsistent formats, limited integration with enterprise resource planning systems and delays in approval workflows.

“Across Europe and the UK, finance teams are navigating economic pressure, regulatory complexity and rising buyer expectations,” says Inez Berkhof-Hollander, vice president of EMEA at TreviPay. “Our research shows payment and invoicing experiences now play a decisive role in supplier selection.”

These issues appear to have a direct impact on customer loyalty. Almost half (47%) of businesses say the ability to pay by invoice influences where they place repeat business, underlining the continued importance of traditional payment methods alongside digital innovation.

“Pay by invoice remains the dominant B2B payment method across Europe,” Berkhof-Hollander says. “It’s woven into how businesses operate here. But preferences vary significantly.”

Variation across markets is a consistent theme in the findings. Trade credit is widely used in the UK and Germany, where 46% of buyers rely on it, while Spanish businesses are less dependent on credit but show the strongest demand for invoice customisation, with 93% citing it as important compared with an overall average of 82%.

Levels of friction also differ significantly by geography. In Germany, 76% of buyers report issues with payment options, more than double the 37% recorded in Spain, suggesting that complexity and compliance requirements may be contributing to a more challenging payment environment.

Company size further shapes priorities. Larger enterprises tend to focus on integration with internal systems and tighter purchase controls, while mid-sized firms place greater emphasis on speed and flexibility. In the UK, onboarding speed emerges as a key competitive differentiator among suppliers.

“While there will always be regional differences, it all comes down to reducing friction at every stage of the buying journey,” Berkhof-Hollander says. “Flexibility is key to helping suppliers cement repeat business and deliver sustainable growth.”

 

CFOs urged to rethink AI ROI approach

CFOs risk misjudging the value of AI investments if they treat them as a single return-on-investment calculation rather than a portfolio of distinct initiatives, according to new insights from Gartner. The research highlights a growing disconnect between how finance teams evaluate AI and how value is actually created. Instead of delivering uniform returns, AI initiatives span a wide range of use cases, each with different cost structures, timelines and risk profiles.

“AI does not follow one cost curve, and it does not produce one uniform type of value,” says Twisha Sharma, senior principal, research in the Gartner Finance practice. “CFOs need to stop looking for a single ROI formula and instead build a balanced portfolio that includes productivity use cases, targeted process improvements, and selective transformational bets.”

Gartner’s analysis groups AI initiatives into three broad categories. At the lower end are routine applications, such as automating invoice processing, expense management or basic reporting, typically involving relatively modest investment. 

More advanced use cases include predictive analytics and forecasting tools, such as cash flow modelling or spend analysis, which require greater investment and deliver more complex insights. At the highest end are transformational projects, including dynamic scenario planning or autonomous procurement, which carry significantly higher costs and risk but offer the potential for strategic impact.

The variation between these categories can be substantial. Routine automation initiatives may cost in the region of US$10,000, while more advanced analytics projects can reach around US$120,000. Transformational AI investments, by contrast, can approach US$1m, reflecting their scale and complexity.

This divergence creates challenges for finance teams attempting to apply a single evaluation framework. According to Gartner, different AI use cases require tailored assessment models that account for their specific economic characteristics, including longer implementation timelines and varying degrees of uncertainty.

“The economics of AI differ sharply from one use case to another, making it difficult for a standard value approach to capture the full picture, especially as the cost difference between various types can be significant,” Sharma says. “Each use case will have different timelines, different ambitions, different risk profiles and different ongoing costs.”

A further risk lies in focusing too narrowly on immediate financial returns. While some AI initiatives may deliver measurable gains in revenue, cost efficiency or cash flow, others generate value in less tangible ways, particularly in the early stages of adoption. These benefits can include improved decision-making, greater organisational agility, enhanced analytical capability and a broader strategic role for finance within the business. In many cases, such outcomes precede direct financial impact, making them harder to capture through traditional performance metrics.

The findings suggest that organisations achieving the strongest results from AI are those adopting a portfolio-based approach, balancing lower-risk productivity gains with more ambitious initiatives. This also requires a willingness to scale successful projects while discontinuing those that fail to deliver expected value. Taken together, the analysis points to a shift in how finance leaders assess emerging technologies. Rather than applying a single ROI lens, CFOs are increasingly being encouraged to adopt more nuanced evaluation frameworks that reflect the varied and evolving nature of AI investments.

 

SAP Taulia targets supplier barriers in virtual card adoption

SAP Taulia has introduced a suite of features aimed at addressing longstanding barriers to virtual card adoption among suppliers, as providers seek to expand the role of card-based payments in B2B transactions.

Virtual cards have been widely promoted as a tool to improve working capital efficiency for buyers, but uptake has been more limited on the supplier side. Challenges such as high transaction fees, manual reconciliation processes and technical constraints have reduced their appeal, particularly for higher-value payments.

The latest release focuses on removing these friction points by automating payment processes and improving access to funds. One of the central features is hands-free payment processing, which enables funds to be transferred directly into supplier accounts without the need for manual card entry. The functionality is supported through partnerships with payment providers including Adflex, Paymate, ipaymy, Boost Payment Solutions, Mastercard and Visa.

Faster access to cash is another key component. Suppliers can opt to receive payment immediately upon invoice approval, bypassing traditional payment terms that often extend to 30 or 60 days. This approach is intended to strengthen liquidity while reducing the administrative burden on buyers.

The suite also introduces multi-use virtual cards, designed to overcome transaction limits that can restrict high-value B2B payments. By allowing multiple transactions against a single authorised card, the feature is expected to reduce payment failures linked to terminal constraints.

Additional functionality includes credit note netting and bundled payments, which enable suppliers to consolidate multiple invoices and credits into a single transaction. This is intended to simplify reconciliation and provide greater control over cash flow, particularly for suppliers managing large volumes of invoices.

Data analytics also play a role in the new offering. By leveraging network and enterprise resource planning data, the platform identifies suppliers that are already capable of accepting card payments but are not currently doing so. SAP Taulia estimates this approach can increase the pool of eligible suppliers by around 2%.

 

Worldpay joins EPI to expand Wero rollout

Global Payments has announced that its Worldpay business has joined the European Payments Initiative (EPI), enabling its Worldpay business to offer Wero, a pan-European instant payment solution, to merchants across the region. The move allows Global Payments’ clients to begin accepting Wero at checkout, as the account-to-account payment scheme expands beyond peer-to-peer transactions into online retail. The rollout is expected to take place over the coming months, reflecting broader efforts to diversify payment options available to European consumers and merchants.

Wero is a mobile-first payment solution built on SEPA Instant Credit Transfer rails, enabling real-time payments using phone numbers, QR codes or in-app processes. Since its launch in 2024 across Germany, France and Belgium, the platform has reached more than 52 million users, signalling growing demand for regionally developed payment alternatives.

Initially focused on person-to-person payments, Wero is now extending into e-commerce, positioning itself as a competitor to established international card networks and digital wallets. Its expansion comes amid rising interest in account-to-account payment models, which are forecast to reach nearly $3.8 trillion in global transaction volume by 2030.

For merchants, the integration is designed to be relatively straightforward, allowing Wero to be added as a checkout option without additional hardware requirements. The model also enables real-time settlement, which can improve cash flow visibility and reduce reliance on traditional card-based processing.

The development reflects a broader shift in European payments, where regulatory initiatives and market demand are driving the adoption of instant payment infrastructure and domestic alternatives to global schemes. By incorporating Wero, payment providers are seeking to offer greater flexibility at checkout while supporting faster and more direct transaction flows.

Consumer behaviour is also evolving. Mobile payments are expected to account for close to 65% of e-commerce transactions by 2030, increasing the importance of mobile-first solutions that integrate seamlessly into digital purchasing journeys.

Global Payments’ participation in EPI follows its acquisition of Worldpay in January 2026, bringing together its merchant acquiring and payment processing capabilities under a single platform. The addition of Wero forms part of a wider strategy to expand acceptance options and align with emerging payment preferences across Europe.

As Wero continues its expansion into retail payments, its adoption by major payment providers highlights growing momentum behind account-to-account models and the development of a more integrated European payments ecosystem.

 

Bank of Ireland prices €750m green bond at five-year low spread

Bank of Ireland has raised €750m through an eight-year green bond, achieving its tightest pricing for senior debt in five years amid volatile market conditions. The bond was priced at mid-swaps plus 100 basis points, marking the lowest spread for an Irish senior issuance since 2021. It also represents the first euro-denominated senior debt deal by a European bank since the escalation of conflict in the Middle East.

Demand for the transaction was strong, with orders exceeding €2.2bn and participation from around 135 investors. The bond carries a fixed coupon of 3.875%, reflecting favourable funding conditions despite heightened geopolitical uncertainty.

The issuance forms part of the bank’s broader funding strategy and follows its earlier green bond transaction this year. Proceeds are intended to support environmentally focused lending, aligned with the bank’s sustainable finance objectives.

“Today’s issuance reflects the continued confidence investors have in Bank of Ireland and in our long-term strategy,” says Tony Morley, group treasurer at Bank of Ireland. “The strong demand and tight pricing underline the quality of the Bank’s credit and our ability to access markets even in challenging conditions. This green bond further strengthens our funding position while supporting customers in their transition to a lower carbon economy.”

The transaction was led by a syndicate of banks including Davy, Barclays, BofA Securities, ING, Société Générale and UBS, highlighting continued investor appetite for green-labelled bank debt.

Beyond capital markets activity, Bank of Ireland has continued to expand its sustainable finance portfolio. Lending in this area increased by 20% last year to €17.7bn, exceeding its 2025 target of approximately €15bn. The bank remains on track to meet its longer-term goal of €30bn in sustainable finance by 2030.

The deal underscores ongoing demand for green assets, even as market conditions remain sensitive to geopolitical developments and shifting interest rate expectations.

 

Finix integrates Plaid to simplify bank verification

Finix has partnered with Plaid to embed bank account verification directly into its payments platform, aiming to reduce friction in onboarding and improve the efficiency of money movement. The integration brings Plaid’s authentication and identity capabilities into Finix’s infrastructure, allowing businesses to verify bank accounts in real time during onboarding, payouts and ongoing payment management. The move targets a longstanding challenge in payments, where bank verification often involves multiple providers and manual processes.

In many cases, businesses rely on separate tools for identity checks, account verification and payment processing, creating fragmented workflows that can slow onboarding and increase drop-off rates. By consolidating these functions within a single platform, the integration is designed to streamline processes and reduce operational complexity.

Merchants and payment recipients can connect bank accounts through embedded flows, with verified account data tokenised and transmitted securely. This enables businesses to confirm account ownership before initiating payouts, reducing the risk of failed transactions and improving control over funds.

“Speed and trust are foundational to modern payments,” says Richie Serna, co-founder and chief executive of Finix. “Our partnership with Plaid strengthens both. By embedding real-time bank verification directly into Finix, we’re helping businesses onboard merchants and payment recipients faster while reducing fraud and operational risk.”

The development also reflects broader efforts to shift payment flows away from card networks towards bank-based alternatives. By enabling faster and more seamless verification, the integration is intended to support wider adoption of account-to-account payments, which can offer lower processing costs.

From a security perspective, the use of tokenisation reduces the need for businesses to handle sensitive bank credentials directly, helping to limit compliance burdens and exposure to data risks.

The partnership expands Finix’s no-code and API-based capabilities, allowing platforms, marketplaces and merchants to implement bank verification and payment workflows without significant development effort.

 

Nexi expands SEPA access for Danish banks

Nexi has extended its agreement with local and nationwide banks in Denmark to deliver SEPA Direct Debit services, in a move aimed at strengthening their connectivity to the European payments ecosystem. Under the arrangement, Nexi will provide the infrastructure and operational support required to process SEPA Direct Debit collections. This enables participating Danish banks to manage their involvement in the SEPA scheme through Nexi’s existing payment infrastructure, rather than building or maintaining their own systems.

The development is intended to improve access to cross-border euro-denominated payment services, while supporting greater integration between Danish financial institutions and European clearing systems. By leveraging shared infrastructure, banks are expected to benefit from more scalable processing capabilities and reduced operational complexity.

SEPA Direct Debit is a core component of the Single Euro Payments Area framework, allowing businesses and consumers to make recurring euro payments across participating countries under a standardised scheme. Expanding access to these services is seen as a way to support cross-border transactions and align domestic payment capabilities with broader European standards.

For Danish banks, the agreement builds on existing cooperation with Nexi across card and payment services, including support for international card schemes and the domestic Dankort network. Extending the relationship into direct debit services reflects ongoing efforts to broaden service coverage and adapt to evolving payment requirements.

The partnership also reflects wider trends in European payments, where banks are increasingly relying on external infrastructure providers to access pan-European schemes and maintain compliance with technical and regulatory standards. As payment systems become more interconnected, the ability to integrate with regional frameworks such as SEPA is becoming a key requirement for financial institutions operating across borders.

By centralising processing through Nexi’s platform, participating banks are expected to streamline their operations while maintaining access to established European payment rails. The agreement also supports the continued convergence of domestic and regional payment systems, as institutions seek to offer consistent services across markets.

 

Visa joins Canton Network to support onchain payments

Visa is set to join the Canton Network as a Super Validator, marking its entry into a blockchain infrastructure designed for regulated financial institutions. The company will be one of around 40 validators responsible for supporting and securing the network, which is built to enable privacy-preserving transactions across shared infrastructure. The move reflects ongoing efforts to address one of the key barriers to blockchain adoption in finance: the tension between transparency and confidentiality.

Unlike public blockchains, where transaction data is broadly visible, the Canton Network is designed to allow institutions to operate on a shared ledger while maintaining control over sensitive information. This approach is intended to support use cases such as payments, settlement and treasury management without requiring changes to existing compliance or risk frameworks.

Visa’s role as a validator is expected to focus on maintaining network integrity and supporting clients that choose to deploy services on the platform. The development also signals a closer link between blockchain-based capital markets activity and payment flows, as the network expands beyond asset issuance and trading into transaction processing.

The Canton Network has already seen adoption in capital markets, particularly in the issuance and trading of tokenised assets. Integrating payment capabilities is positioned as a next step in extending its functionality across financial services.

Visa’s participation builds on its broader activity in digital assets and stablecoins. The company reports that its stablecoin settlement activity has reached an annualised run rate of $4.6bn, while more than 130 stablecoin-linked card programmes have been launched across over 50 countries.

The move highlights a wider trend among payment providers and financial institutions exploring blockchain-based infrastructure that can support regulated use cases. By focusing on privacy and interoperability, platforms such as Canton are seeking to address longstanding concerns around data exposure and compliance, which have limited adoption of public blockchain networks in institutional finance.

 

CargoX and TradeSun target trade errors with validation layer

CargoX and TradeSun have launched a document validation tool aimed at reducing errors in trade documentation and improving efficiency across global supply chains. The solution introduces an automated verification layer that checks documents before submission, with the aim of reducing inconsistencies, rework and delays in cargo clearance. The development addresses a longstanding issue in international trade, where complex documentation requirements create significant operational risk.

According to the World Trade Organization, a typical customs transaction can involve 20 to 30 parties, around 40 documents and up to 200 data elements, many of which are repeated multiple times. This complexity often leads to errors, with studies suggesting that customs declarations contain inaccuracies in around 34% of cases.

The validation tool combines TradeSun’s AI-driven verification capabilities with CargoX’s blockchain-based document platform. It is designed to automatically review documentation prior to departure, helping ensure that submissions meet required standards before being shared with importers, banks, customs authorities and other stakeholders.

By identifying discrepancies earlier in the process, the system is intended to reduce the need for manual corrections and minimise disruption to shipment timelines. Errors in documentation can lead to delays, additional costs and operational bottlenecks, particularly in time-sensitive supply chains.

The initial rollout supports advance cargo information filings in Egypt, with plans to expand coverage to additional use cases, including bank document presentations and other customs-related submissions. The platform is already used by more than 160,000 companies across over 190 countries, providing a base for broader adoption of automated validation tools.

 

BEC partners Tieto to expand corporate banking platform

BEC Financial Technologies has partnered with Tieto Banktech to deliver a cash management solution aimed at strengthening services for large corporate clients across its member banks. The agreement marks a step in BEC’s expansion into business banking, an area of growing focus as banks seek to enhance offerings for corporate customers with more complex liquidity needs. The solution is designed to provide real-time visibility of cash positions across accounts, legal entities and currencies, supporting more efficient treasury management.

Functionality includes cash pooling and multi-currency credit facilities, enabling companies to optimise liquidity and reduce reliance on manual transfers. By improving oversight and control, the platform is intended to help corporates make more efficient use of available funds while reducing operational delays.

Built on technology developed for Nordic banking markets, the solution will be delivered through a cloud-based model. This approach is expected to allow closer integration with BEC’s existing banking infrastructure, including channels, processes and data systems, while supporting a more streamlined user experience.

Nykredit will act as the initial implementation partner, with the rollout taking place in phases before being extended to other BEC-affiliated banks serving large corporates. The first phase will focus on core cash management capabilities, with additional functionality expected to be added over time.

The partnership also reflects BEC’s broader strategy of integrating third-party technology into its banking platform, rather than relying solely on in-house development. This model is intended to accelerate access to new capabilities while maintaining operational stability, security and regulatory compliance.