European treasurers prioritise cash flow as risks mount

European treasurers are placing cash flow, technology investment and resilience at the centre of their plans for the next 12 months as geopolitical tensions, market volatility and cybersecurity threats complicate the outlook for the second half of 2026.

Polling conducted at J.P. Morgan’s EMEA Treasurers Forum in London, covering finance leaders from 26 countries and more than 60 industries, found that 53.66% viewed geopolitical tensions and conflicts as the biggest challenge to long-term business planning. Market volatility followed at 26.83%, ahead of interest rates at 17.07%, evolving cybersecurity risks at 13.41% and inflation at 10.98%.

Economic expectations remained cautious. Just 10.98% expected global conditions to improve by year-end, while 56.10% anticipated little change and 32.93% expected conditions to worsen. The findings suggest that companies are focusing on stress-testing liquidity and preserving flexibility rather than moving to an outright defensive posture.

Improving cash flow and working capital was the leading priority for the next 12 months, selected by 54.88% of respondents. Implementing new technologies followed at 41.46%, while 37.8% cited cost reduction and 34.15% process streamlining. Increased visibility and control was chosen by 21.95%, with fraud prevention at 9.76%.

Technology adoption is becoming more targeted. Employee productivity was the most widely expected area of AI impact, cited by 63.41% of respondents, followed by automated reporting at 45.12% and financial forecasting and planning at 35.37%. Expense optimisation and cost control attracted 26.83%, fraud detection 21.95% and only 6.1% expected no material impact from AI over the next year.

The research also stressed that practical deployment depends on better data quality, documented processes and clear policy controls. That shifts the emphasis from experimentation towards use cases that can be tested, governed and scaled without creating fresh operational risk.

Interest in tokenisation was more divided. Avoiding traditional cut-off windows was the most common expected benefit at 39.02%, but 32.93% saw no use for tokenisation in their business. Simultaneous movement of money and information was cited by 25.61%, programmable payments by 18.29%, improved transaction security by 13.41% and repo facilitation by 8.54%.

M&A expectations were comparatively firm, with more than 40% anticipating increased activity in the second half of 2026 and more than 30% expecting volumes to remain steady. Forum discussions also highlighted flexible leverage targets, funding diversification and the growing complexity of hybrid capital and private credit. That points to a continued emphasis on maintaining liquidity as both a defensive buffer and a source of strategic capacity if opportunities emerge.

Laurent Descout, co-founder and chief executive officer at Neo, said the next phase of treasury transformation would depend on “clean data, integrated systems and strong governance.” Applied effectively, he added, AI could strengthen forecasting, fraud detection and liquidity management, while tokenised payment infrastructure could support faster, more transparent cross-border transactions.

Overall, the research depicts a treasury agenda shaped by caution rather than retrenchment. Companies are seeking to modernise operations and improve cash conversion while preserving enough financial flexibility to respond to a wider range of economic, technological and geopolitical outcomes.

 

Corporates risk payment disruption as ISO 20022 deadline nears

Companies face rising risks of rejected payments, delays and reconciliation failures as banks tighten enforcement of ISO 20022 data requirements, according to Treasury Intelligence Solutions (TIS). The company said many businesses still treat the standard as a technical messaging change rather than an operational issue spanning treasury, finance, compliance and IT. That approach could leave critical data, systems and testing gaps unresolved before the next implementation milestone in November 2026.

Under the new phase, unstructured address data will no longer be accepted for many cross-border payments and MT101 payment initiation messages will be retired. TIS said Fedwire and CHIPS will also enforce ISO 20022 fully and stop supporting legacy formats, raising the risk that non-compliant instructions will be rejected.

Awareness remains uneven. Research cited by TIS found that in early 2025 almost a quarter of corporate respondents were unaware of ISO 20022. Among those familiar with the standard, half had yet to begin preparing.

Operational problems are already emerging, the company said. Incomplete address information, missing regulatory fields and weak counterparty data are contributing to payment failures and repair work. Uneven adoption of reporting formats across banks is also putting pressure on cash visibility and reconciliation. Manual intervention is consequently rising as operations teams repair more exceptions.

Jonathan Paquette, chief of strategy at TIS, said the immediate priority was “acting on data quality and testing to ensure payments don’t fail when the standard goes live”. He warned that the November deadline was closer than many companies realised, while summer holidays could further restrict the availability of specialist resources.

Readiness will require more than converting message formats. Businesses need clear ownership across treasury, compliance and IT, stronger master data controls and a detailed review of how ERP, treasury management and bank connectivity systems handle payment and reporting messages. Testing also needs to reflect live operating conditions across multiple banks and regions rather than relying on isolated technical checks.

Further changes will follow. Legacy exception and investigation messages are due to be retired in 2027, while MT9xx statement and reporting messages are scheduled to give way to ISO 20022 CAMT formats during 2027 and 2028.

Its white paper, ISO 20022 After the Deadlines, outlines the issues, while a readiness health check covers formats, data, governance, reconciliation and execution. The broader warning is that short-term patches may keep individual payments moving but leave companies exposed as enforcement expands.

 

Digital euro clears key hurdle towards EU negotiations

A European Parliament committee has backed a detailed negotiating position on the digital euro, moving the project closer to formal talks with EU governments while stopping well short of guaranteeing a launch. MEPs on the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee approved the main file by 43 votes to 14, with one abstention. The mandate is expected to be announced at the start of Parliament’s July plenary session, after which negotiations with the Council can begin.

Crucially, the vote converts broad political support into a more defined operating model. Under the proposal, the European Central Bank would issue the digital euro for online and offline use, while banks, e-money firms, post offices and regulated crypto-asset providers could distribute it. Most businesses would have to accept it, although self-employed workers and small companies that do not take other digital payments would be exempt.

Privacy and financial stability safeguards sit at the centre of the compromise. The ECB would not receive personal identification data, while technologies including zero-knowledge proofs could verify transactions without exposing unnecessary information. Offline payments would work through value stored locally on a device and would be free of charge.

Holding limits would aim to prevent large deposit outflows from banks. The European Commission would set an EU-wide ceiling based on ECB recommendations, subject to review at least every two years and parliamentary involvement. Businesses could retain incoming digital euros for up to 24 hours, but could not hold them permanently. The currency would pay no interest.

Cash protections form another part of the package. A separate file would require euro-area countries to maintain access to banknotes and coins, prepare for digital payment outages and prevent businesses from imposing blanket “no cash” policies.

Rapporteur Fernando Navarrete Rojas said the digital euro would “complement cash, never replace it”, adding that privacy should be built into the system from the outset.

Approval improves the project’s legislative prospects, but important hurdles remain. Parliament and the Council must agree the final rules, while the ECB would still need to complete a rulebook, build infrastructure, run live pilots and resolve liability issues before any launch. Even after authorisation, MEPs want a preparation period of at least 24 months.

Overall, the committee’s position makes a digital euro more plausible by narrowing political disputes around privacy, bank funding and cash access. It does not make issuance inevitable, but it gives the project a clearer route into final EU negotiations.

 

Goldman cuts US recession risk after ceasefire extension

Goldman Sachs Research has lowered its estimate of a US recession over the next 12 months after an extended ceasefire between the US and Iran reduced risks to energy supplies and economic growth. The bank now puts the probability of recession at 15%, down from 25% and in line with its long-term norm. That is also below the 20% estimate recorded immediately before the conflict, with chief economist Jan Hatzius pointing to subsequent improvement in the labour market as evidence of greater underlying resilience.

Growth is still expected to remain moderate. Goldman Sachs has nevertheless raised its forecast for sequential GDP growth in the second half of 2026 to 2%, reflecting the expected support to household purchasing power from lower fuel prices.

Oil remains central to that outlook. The bank’s commodities strategists expect Brent crude to trade at about US$80 per barrel by year-end, well below its April peak of roughly US$118 during the war involving the US, Israel and Iran.

Risks around that forecast remain two-sided. Iran’s renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz has underlined that energy flows may recover only gradually. A rapid release of oil into a market that was already oversupplied before the conflict could, however, create a near-term glut and push prices lower.

Beyond energy, the economy is receiving support from the artificial intelligence boom. Goldman Sachs highlighted higher equity wealth and continued capital expenditure as channels through which AI investment is feeding into activity.

Overall, the revised forecast suggests that the ceasefire has removed some of the most severe downside scenarios without eliminating uncertainty. Much will depend on whether shipping through the Strait of Hormuz normalises and whether lower energy costs translate into stronger real incomes without renewed inflationary pressure during the closing months of the year.

 

UK SMEs pivot towards Europe as trade risks rise

UK SMEs are shifting trade towards Europe as conflict, tariffs and currency volatility squeeze cash flow, according to Bibby Financial Services’ ‘Trading Places 2026’ report. Concern about global conflicts among importers rose to 48% from 39% in 2025, making geopolitical risk the leading macroeconomic concern for importers and exporters. Nearly seven in 10 SMEs reported worsening cash flow, with 61% citing shipping and logistics costs and 42% delayed invoice payments.

Foreign exchange movements affected 44% of respondents, producing an estimated average loss of £71,600 among those hit. More than half had adjusted their FX strategies, while 20% reported attempted FX-related fraud. Payment pressure is also spreading through supply chains, with 36% of overseas partners requesting upfront settlement and 26% of SMEs seeing increased customer insolvency.

Europe has gained ground as a trading hub. France was named as an export market by 36% of SMEs, up from 13% last year, while Germany rose to 34% from 13%. The US slipped to 29% from 30%, with 36% reporting lower US export turnover after new tariffs and 27% actively reducing their exposure.

Import patterns showed a similar move towards nearer markets. China remained the leading source at 34%, but Germany climbed to 31% from 12% and France to 23% from 9%. Companies also broadened supplier networks, with the average number used rising from 13 to 15.

Confidence nevertheless weakened. Some 38% of exporters expected volumes to fall, up from 27%, while the equivalent share among importers rose to 36% from 19%. The proportion of exporters reporting higher sales dropped to 35% from 45%.

The findings suggest SMEs are responding to persistent volatility by diversifying suppliers, tightening credit control and favouring markets with shorter supply chains and lower currency risk. Yet rising operating costs, weaker payment terms and geopolitical disruption are making growth harder to finance.

 

Tracker maps global path towards paperless cargo trade

Global trade bodies have launched a tracker showing how countries are progressing towards adoption of a UN convention designed to replace paper cargo documents with electronic equivalents. The Negotiable Cargo Documents Convention Tracker maps each economy across six stages, from initial awareness through to entry into force. It has been developed by the ICC Digital Standards Initiative, the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law and the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific.

Early data shows that 28 economies are already engaging with the convention, including eight in Asia and seven in Africa. Ten countries must become parties before the treaty can enter into force, making visibility over national progress important to businesses, governments and international bodies.

Adopted by the UN General Assembly in December 2025, the convention creates a harmonised legal basis for negotiable cargo documents to be issued, transferred and enforced electronically across borders. Paper documents still need to move physically between banks, traders and logistics providers, adding cost, delay and exposure to error or fraud.

By showing where reform is advancing, the tracker is intended to make legal uncertainty easier to assess and encourage governments to act. Businesses will be able to see which markets are moving towards electronic documentation, while policymakers can compare progress with trading partners.

Its design follows the earlier MLETR Tracker, which monitors adoption of the UNCITRAL Model Law on Electronic Transferable Records. The organisations behind the project argue that greater transparency can build commercial pressure for legislative change and accelerate the move towards digital trade.

The tracker should give governments and businesses a clearer view of where legal reform is gathering pace, helping them identify emerging digital trade corridors and coordinate adoption. If early engagement translates into ratifications, it could provide the visibility and momentum needed to move electronic cargo documents into wider cross-border use.

 

XMLdation launches RT1 simulator for automated payments testing

XMLdation has launched a self-service simulator for testing payments over EBA Clearing’s RT1 instant payments system, aiming to reduce the cost and operational risk of repeated end-to-end testing. Virtual Buddy Bank acts as a partner institution, allowing banks and payment service providers to send and receive test payments through a standard interface connected directly to RT1. Users can configure scenarios, view transactions and run pre-set test cases required for certification.

Testing demands are increasing as banks connect to more real-time payment rails, each with its own update cycles and regulatory requirements. XMLdation estimates that an institution supporting 20 rails could face 120 test cycles a year, making manual execution difficult to sustain.

“The need for effective testing on an ongoing basis is undoubtedly growing,” noted Tricia Balfe, chief executive officer at XMLdation. “We have calculated, for example, that a bank supporting 20 different rails would need to undertake 120 test cycles every year. It is simply not practical to perform testing to that degree without automation. Being able to perform comprehensive end-to-end testing automatically, with far greater control, is an optimised means of driving efficiency and reducing risk and costs.”

EU instant payments rules now require banks and payment service providers in the SEPA area to send and receive instant payments through SCT Inst. Institutions must therefore connect to RT1, TIPS or both, increasing the need to test connectivity, message handling and exception scenarios regularly.

EBA Clearing has approved the simulator for direct RT1 connectivity. XMLdation said it can support direct and indirect participants and is extending the tool to Swift CBPR+, STEP2, OCT Inst and Request to Pay.

Automated simulation could make continuous testing more practical as instant-payment obligations expand. It may help institutions identify failures before production, shorten certification work and reduce dependence on bilateral testing with other banks.

 

HSBC launches mobile virtual cards for UAE businesses

HSBC has launched a mobile virtual card service in the UAE with Mastercard, allowing corporate customers to add tokenised commercial cards to digital wallets for contactless, online and in-app payments. The service extends virtual card use beyond online procurement and supplier payments into business travel and point-of-sale spending. Cards are issued digitally through a portal and can be added to compatible wallets through Mastercard’s mobile application, removing the need to wait for a physical card.

The mobile virtual cards use Mastercard In Control for Mobile Payments. The underlying platform generates virtual card numbers that can be tokenised for wallet use, while shielding the original card details from merchants. Businesses can set controls governing where, when and how much employees may spend. Users can view card limits, available balances and near-real-time transaction records through the app, giving finance teams greater oversight of decentralised expenses.

The launch reflects growing demand for commercial payment tools that combine the control of virtual cards with the convenience of mobile wallets. It may be particularly useful for travel, field operations and other situations where employees need immediate access to approved funds without receiving a physical card.

By linking virtual issuance, tokenisation and wallet acceptance, the service could also reduce exposure to card misuse and simplify distribution to staff. Its wider significance lies in extending digital card controls into everyday business spending, where companies often face weaker visibility and slower reconciliation than in centrally managed procurement.

 

Modern Treasury adds Sardine fraud monitoring to payments platform

Modern Treasury has partnered with Sardine to add real-time transaction monitoring and fraud detection to its payments infrastructure for businesses moving money in the US and internationally. The integration is intended to help companies identify suspicious activity earlier as faster payment methods and embedded finance increase the speed at which fraud can spread. Sardine’s risk tools will sit alongside Modern Treasury’s existing payment connectivity, compliance controls, account infrastructure and ledgering capabilities.

Customers will be able to monitor activity across stablecoins, ACH, wire transfers, RTP, FedNow and push-to-card payments through a single workflow. Wallet screening and automated checks can also be incorporated into stablecoin orchestration, while transaction records remain linked to an auditable ledger.

By bringing monitoring into the same platform used to initiate and reconcile payments, the partnership aims to reduce the need for separate integrations and manual reviews. Businesses can apply risk controls across different payment rails while maintaining a consistent view of transactions and balances.

Fraud prevention is becoming more difficult as payment volumes rise and settlement speeds shorten. Systems that rely on delayed reviews or disconnected data may struggle to stop suspicious transactions before funds move, particularly across real-time rails.

Modern Treasury said the combined service is designed to support growing businesses as transaction complexity increases. Its practical value will depend on whether automated monitoring can reduce false positives and review workloads without weakening compliance controls or slowing legitimate payments.

 

Rippling links business banking with same-day payroll

Rippling has launched a business banking service in the US that links operating accounts with its payroll software, allowing companies to process domestic payroll on the day employees are paid. The service includes a checking account paying 2.25% annual percentage yield, according to Rippling, alongside same-day payroll through its existing platform. Businesses can continue using another bank account in parallel rather than moving all funds immediately.

Same-day processing is intended to reduce the need to finalise payroll two to four days before payday. Employers can make changes until 1pm Eastern Time, including adjustments for new hires, bonuses, terminations or contribution changes. Errors can also be corrected on the same day rather than through a later off-cycle run.

Rippling says its checking account offers up to US$200m in Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation coverage through a deposit network. Customers can also move surplus cash into an investment account offering access to a JPMorgan US Treasury money market fund with a yield of up to 3.50%.

Controls include automated sweeps, approval workflows, user permissions and integrations with accounting systems including QuickBooks and NetSuite. The accounts sit alongside Rippling’s corporate cards, payroll, benefits and other workforce software.

The launch extends Rippling further into financial services and tightens the link between payroll timing and cash management. For employers, the model could shorten funding windows, simplify last-minute payroll changes and provide a more integrated view of operating cash while reducing reliance on separate banking, payroll and accounting workflows.