Global central banks adopt wait-and-see approach amid swirling policy uncertainty

In a week that underscored just how wary monetary policymakers remain, central banks across the globe largely held their positions, citing uncertainty, sticky inflation, and fragile growth. On 19 March, the US Federal Reserve left the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25%–4.50%, joining a growing list of central banks, including those in the UK, Indonesia, Japan and South Africa, opting to hold fire in the face of persistent inflation and a murky policy outlook. The Central Bank of Brazil stood apart, pushing through another rate hike in line with its guidance.

The Fed’s latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) suggested a slightly weaker growth outlook and a modest upward revision to inflation, but policymakers stuck to their December forecasts for year-end rates in 2025 and 2026. What changed was the tone: eight of the 19 members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) now see no cuts or just a 25 bps reduction by year-end, double the number from three months earlier.

A recent report from Moody’s describes the Fed’s March dot plot as broadly consistent with its own expectations. The ratings agency continues to project that the federal funds rate will fall to 3.75%–4.00% by the end of this year and to 3.25%–3.50% by the end of 2026. It also notes the Fed’s decision to slow the pace of balance sheet reduction from April, cutting the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from US$25bn to US$5bn, a move likely aimed at smoothing liquidity conditions.

At the post-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that uncertainty was “unusually elevated” and that the Fed did not need to hurry to change the policy rate. Powell explained that a good part of the higher inflation projection is due to tariffs, and the labour market is not a significant source of inflationary pressures. He also downplayed the risk of inflation by describing the tariff effect on inflation as transitory and noting that long-term inflation expectations are anchored. All in all, the report from Moody’s states that the Fed appears to be comfortable holding rates where they are for now but anticipates cuts later this year.

Outside the US, central banks appeared equally cautious. On 19 March, Bank Indonesia kept its seven-day reverse repo rate at 5.75%, citing a weak rupiah. While inflation is now within the central bank’s 1.5%–3.5% target range, the Fed’s slower pace of cuts may delay Indonesia’s next move.

The Bank of Japan left its policy rate at around 0.5% following a 25 bps hike in January, its first move away from negative rates in years. With wage growth accelerating and trade tensions adding complexity, officials are in no rush to go further. Early data from the Japanese Trade Union Confederation suggests major firms will lift wages by 5.46% this year, the strongest increase in three decades. Moody’s expects the BoJ to continue on a gradual path towards normalisation and sees rates reaching 1.0% before any pause.

The Bank of England also opted to stay put, voting 8–1 to hold the policy rate at 4.5% on 20 March. The decision followed a 25 bps cut in February and came against a backdrop of sluggish UK growth and what the BoE described as intensifying global trade policy uncertainty. Despite weak activity, stubborn inflation looks set to keep the pace of rate cuts slow and measured.

In South Africa, the Reserve Bank held its benchmark rate at 7.5%, pausing after three successive cuts since last September. Moody’s expects the SARB to remain closely aligned with the Fed’s trajectory in order to preserve currency stability, even as inflation settles comfortably within its 3%–6% target band.

The outlier this time was Brazil. The central bank raised its Selic rate by 100 bps to 14.25%, extending a tightening cycle that began last September. Inflation remains above target, and officials signalled another hike could follow, albeit smaller, at the next meeting. According to Moody’s, further increases will depend on how quickly inflation cools, but high real rates and weakening activity may soon limit how far the central bank can go.

 

Dissecting AI’s role in combating escalating fraud

Online fraud is on the rise across the US, with businesses facing mounting challenges in detecting and preventing increasingly sophisticated attacks. Veriff’s US Fraud Industry Pulse Survey 2025 reveals that 72% of fraud professionals and decision-makers across sectors such as financial services, technology, and e-commerce have experienced a surge in online fraud incidents over the past year. Looking ahead, a striking 90% expect this trend to continue, anticipating further increases in fraudulent activity throughout 2025.

The financial toll of fraud is also becoming more evident. According to the survey, 75.5% of businesses report revenue losses linked to fraudulent activity, with nearly one-third suffering a reduction of between 3% and 5%. Compounding the challenge is the rise of artificial intelligence as a tool for malicious actors. Some 60.5% of respondents have seen an increase in AI-driven attacks.

However, AI is not only a threat. Many organisations are also using it as a line of defence, with 64% employing AI-based solutions to strengthen their fraud prevention strategies. This growing technological arms race reflects heightened pressure from customers, 71.5% of whom are demanding stronger protection against fraud.

To meet these expectations, companies are turning to advanced verification tools. The survey shows that 83% have already implemented identity verification (IDV) and biometric technologies within their authentication processes. Furthermore, 81% plan to increase their reliance on these tools, indicating a continued shift toward more secure, tech-driven approaches to fraud prevention.

While many businesses are confident in their fraud prevention capabilities, the report also reveals that a significant portion remains underprepared, highlighting the necessity for continuous improvement and adaptation.

“The shifting nature of the fraud threat has to be top of mind for businesses,” commented Iryna Bondar, Senior Fraud Group Manager at Veriff. “The only way to stay ahead of this threat is to have a flexible and adaptive approach to fraud prevention and to have the full range of tools available. We talk often about the need to create a fraud-prevention ecosystem, and this is exactly the reason why.”

 

Digital Dollar Project flags gaps in US financial infrastructure

The Digital Dollar Project has released a whitepaper exploring how outdated financial infrastructure is limiting the efficiency and reach of the US dollar in a rapidly digitising global economy. Drawing on years of research, the report outlines the growing mismatch between the dollar’s dominant international role and the technological systems that underpin it. While recent years have seen a surge in digital asset innovation, the paper argues that the existing infrastructure for US dollar transactions is increasingly strained by the demands of a modern, global financial system.

The paper stops short of advocating for any specific central bank digital currency (CBDC) model, particularly in light of the 23 January 2025 executive order that prohibits US federal agencies from developing or promoting CBDCs. Instead, it takes a broader view, analysing a wide range of innovations, including tokenised deposits, stablecoins, foreign CBDCs and decentralised digital assets.

At the core of the whitepaper is a business case for digital modernisation. It points to the potential for cost savings, reduced risk, faster transactions and improved collateral efficiency. Private sector case studies are used to demonstrate how innovation is already delivering results, particularly where competitive forces have driven development at speed. However, the report cautions that the absence of industry-wide coordination risks fragmenting network development and undermining interoperability.

To address this, the paper outlines a set of recommendations. Financial institutions and non-bank players are urged to develop enterprise-level business cases and engage in collaborative infrastructure development. Financial market utilities and consortiums are encouraged to align on settlement models, risk frameworks and technical standards. Meanwhile, policymakers are called upon to reduce regulatory uncertainty and support legislation that balances innovation with safeguards.

 

GenAI and machine learning set for continued investment from CFOs

Finance leaders are focused on AI-enabled technology solutions and intelligent process automation to align their finance technology investments with broader business goals to enhance speed, agility, and competitive advantage, according to Gartner, Inc.

“CFOs are increasingly playing a strategic role in shaping technology roadmaps that support enterprise-wide innovation,” said Mike Helsel, Senior Director Analyst in the Gartner Finance practice. “Over 70% of CFOs have expanded responsibilities beyond finance to include enterprise data and analytics, AI, and corporate strategy, driving a focus towards finance technologies that support such enterprise initiatives.”

A Gartner survey of 383 finance leaders was taken in October 2024 and showed that generative AI (GenAI), machine learning (ML) and cloud enterprise resource planning (ERP) are the top technologies expected to receive future investment in the finance function.

“Finance AI technologies, including GenAI and ML, are leading future finance investments. In fact, 50% of finance leaders are planning significant increases in GenAI spending,” said Helsel. “However, many finance leaders face challenges with fragmented automation technologies, which limit end-to-end process value creation. Addressing these challenges is crucial for realising the full potential of technology investments.”

Metrics, analytics, and reporting, along with planning, budgeting, and forecasting are among the top priorities for finance functions in 2025. This is driving the push toward AI and advanced analytics tools that transform finance operations by providing real-time insights and enhancing enterprise decision-making processes. 

Future investments are set to rise over 3% overall in core finance technologies led by cloud ERP (38%) and financial planning software (FPS) (24%) which are essential to core finance operations, with new AI augmentations enhancing their capabilities. 

A sizeable majority (87%) of respondents from organisations that have already implemented ERP solutions say they have plans to replace or upgrade them in the next three years.

“The substantial adoption levels and value of cloud ERP make it the top overall technology for finance functions,” said Helsel. “New self-service AI and data analytics capabilities being rolled out by cloud ERP vendors are providing an incentive for finance functions to upgrade, so they can better provide insights to the business in real-time and at scale.”

 

Eurozone’s GDP projections get a mild upward revision

Goldman Sachs Research (GSR) has raised its forecast for the euro zone's real GDP growth this year to 0.8%, up from 0.7%, driven by a new fiscal plan in Germany and higher defence spending on the continent. 

GSR economists increased their 2026 forecast for the currency area by 0.2 percentage points to 1.3% and boosted the 2027 numbers by 0.3 percentage points to 1.6%.

The fiscal plan from Europe's largest economy includes a €500bn ($542bn) off-budget infrastructure and climate protection fund and increased defence spending, which could boost economic activity across the region. 

Sven Jari Stehn, GSR’s chief European economist and his team increased their forecast for real GDP growth in Germany this year to 0.2% from flat. They also raised their 2026 forecast by 0.5 percentage points to 1.5%, and the estimate for 2027 increased by 0.6 percentage points to 2%.

 

Standard Chartered urges ISO 20022 action

Standard Chartered has launched a whitepaper aiming to bolster support for the transformational properties the ISO 20022 payment message format can bring to financial services. Developed in partnership with Zanders, ‘Frictionless reconciliation and allocation of cash: Can the adoption of ISO 20022 XML turn this dream into reality?’ seeks to rally the industry while supporting corporates and financial institutions in navigating the adoption of ISO 20022.

The whitepaper focuses particularly on the potential of ISO 20022 XML, a messaging format that is specific to reducing friction in account receivable reconciliation and cash allocation processes. It also explores how ISO 20022 XML can address inefficiencies and complexities that corporates and financial institutions face when making cross-border transactions.

ISO 20022 has the potential to address many of the longstanding challenges in these processes and deliver benefits across the entire ecosystem. The standard supports the inclusion of richer and more structured data, which translates to greater visibility of the payment details and enhances the potential for further automation and speed of payment settlements. This reduces the need for banks to manually intervene in the process, making near real-time, cross-border wholesale payments a reality.

Structured data is the backbone for predictive and prescriptive analytics, providing treasurers insights into cash flow trends, liquidity management, and risk mitigation, thus offering corporates a competitive advantage. The whitepaper further looks at how high-quality organised datasets allow technologies such as artificial intelligence and machine learning to thrive, identify patterns, predict future outcomes, and recommend actionable strategies – all of which will help corporates be more resilient, agile and prepared in adapting to future trends and challenges.

In addition to highlighting the benefits and opportunities that ISO 20022 XML brings, the whitepaper also features insights from senior decision makers, and highlights the critical areas that need to be considered as they develop treasury and banking technology strategies.

 

HSBC liquidity solution for Middle East corporates wanting real-time treasury

HSBC has announced the launch of a cash concentration solution to support corporate clients in navigating the Middle East’s digital revolution. The HSBC Seven-Day Cash Concentration Solution allows the bank’s corporate clients to automate in-country liquidity management every day of the week, including weekends and country holidays.

The bank claims that the solution is the first of its kind in the Middle East financial services industry. The UAE and Egypt will become HSBC’s first markets to introduce the solution, before expansion to further markets in the Group’s global network later this year, including in the Middle East.

Digital transformation is a key pillar of the economic diversification strategies in many parts of the Middle East and has led to the region becoming one of the fastest adopters of real time payments and digital business models. According to the World Economic Forum, the region has become the fastest-growing real-time payments market globally and the market is expected to reach US$2.6 billion by 2027.

“The advancement of real-time payments and e-commerce means corporate treasurers are now looking at liquidity management as a 24/7 concept,” said Kyle Boag, Head of Global Payments Solutions, HSBC Middle East, North Africa and Turkiye. “HSBC’s solution overcomes the traditional limitations businesses have faced by extending automated liquidity management from the working week to every single day.”

 

Deutsche Bank rolls out Bizum for businesses in Spain

Deutsche Bank has become the first international bank to offer Bizum, the mobile payment service widely used in Spain, to its corporate clients. The move extends the platform’s reach beyond its traditional user base.

The integration means companies with Deutsche Bank’s virtual point-of-sale systems, including multinationals operating in Spain, can now accept payments via Bizum for their online sales. The service has until now been largely limited to local banks serving consumers and small businesses in Spain and Andorra.

Bizum allows users to make payments using only a mobile number, with transactions typically completed in under half a minute. While initially popular for peer-to-peer payments, the platform has gained traction in e-commerce, particularly for subscriptions, donations, and repeat purchases.

Deutsche Bank’s move highlights the growing role of mobile payments in European retail and corporate banking, as financial institutions respond to shifting consumer preferences and look to standardise local payment tools within broader digital strategies.

“This project is a testament to the close collaboration and synergies that arise between the bank’s areas, consolidated in our Global Hausbank model,” said Michel Ahnine, Head of Corporate Cash Management for Southern Europe and France at Corporate Bank. “We thank everyone involved in its implementation because in this way we can continue to support our clients in the evolution of their business model by introducing new payment methods that they did not have until now.”

 

OOCL and oil major complete first interoperable eBL transaction

The shipping and trade finance sectors have taken a step closer to widespread electronic Bill of Lading (eBL) adoption, as OOCL, ICE Digital Trade, IQAX and Global Shipping Business Network (GSBN) announced the successful execution of an interoperable eBL transaction.

The pilot involved OOCL issuing an original eBL via the IQAX platform to a major oil and gas company, which then transferred the document through ICE CargoDocs to its customer, Deqing Sunny Plastics. The eBL was ultimately surrendered back to OOCL, completing a full end-to-end digital transaction across multiple platforms.

The solution delivers on four key elements required for interoperability. On the technical side, the system ensures that only a single original eBL exists at any time and that it remains under the control of the lawful holder. The transfer between ICE CargoDocs and IQAX was facilitated by GSBN, which serves as a tracking registry. Using blockchain infrastructure, GSBN maintains an immutable audit trail of each platform handover.

From a legal standpoint, the OOCL negotiable eBL was issued under UK law, which recognises electronic documents as legally equivalent to paper bills of lading under the UK's Electronic Trade Documents Act 2023.

To address liability, ICE Digital Trade and IQAX signed a platform liability agreement outlining the responsibilities of each provider, including which party is accountable in the event of a loss. GSBN, operating as a neutral registry, committed to securely recording all platform transfers.

The transaction also received approval from the International Group of P&I Clubs, ensuring OOCL remained in compliance with its protection and indemnity insurance cover.

The ability to securely exchange eBLs across platforms represents a significant milestone for the container shipping industry. Industry groups and major carriers have pledged to achieve 100% eBL adoption by 2030, and this development marks a tangible step in that direction. The collaboration between technology providers and the legal clarity provided by recent legislative changes are seen as key enablers in breaking down barriers to digital trade documentation.

 

Metro Bank partners with Covecta to boost corporate and commercial technology

Metro Bank has announced a partnership with Covecta, an AI platform for financial services that will be deployed across its corporate and commercial credit businesses. Covecta is a third-party Agentic AI solution that will deliver and complete tasks across the end-to-end loan lifecycle from lead acquisition to servicing. This helps compress work that might take hours of manual effort into minutes.

Metro Bank and Covecta found that each completed task evidenced a 60-80% reduction in time, creating significant improvements in team efficiency, decision making and risk analysis.

“Metro Bank is rapidly growing lending to corporate and commercial businesses: last year, new loan originations increased by 71% and we want to do even more this year,” commented Andy Veares, MD of Corporate & Commercial, Metro Bank. “This AI solution frees up more time for our corporate and commercial banking experts to spend servicing our customers, which goes to the heart of our relationship banking ethos.”