Global growth forecast for 2.8% in 2026 as inflation eases and rates fall

Global economic growth is expected to remain resilient in 2026, with output expanding by 2.8%, above the 2.5% consensus forecast, according to research published by Goldman Sachs Research. The outlook points to continued divergence between regions, with stronger momentum in the US and China offsetting more modest growth across the euro area.

The firm’s economists expect the US economy to accelerate to 2.6% growth in 2026, outperforming most peer economies. China’s GDP is forecast to expand by 4.8%, driven by export strength, while the euro area is expected to grow by 1.3%, supported by fiscal stimulus in Germany and sustained demand in parts of southern Europe.

“As has typically been the case since the pandemic, we are most optimistic (relative to consensus) in the US,” writes Jan Hatzius in the report Macro Outlook 2026: Sturdy Growth, Stagnant Jobs, Stable Prices.

US growth is expected to benefit from a combination of tax cuts, looser financial conditions and a reduced drag from tariffs. Goldman Sachs estimates that tax changes will deliver around US$100bn, or roughly 0.4% of annual disposable income, in additional tax refunds to consumers in the first half of 2026. This fiscal impulse is expected to be front-loaded, with further support coming from the rebound following the recent government shutdown.

“We expect especially strong GDP growth in the first half of next year,” Hatzius writes.

Despite solid output growth, labour market performance across developed economies remains weak. Job growth has fallen well below pre-pandemic levels, with the slowdown particularly evident in the US, where employment growth may have turned negative over the summer. Hatzius links part of this weakness to sharply lower immigration and slower labour force growth, although he notes this does not fully explain the disconnect between GDP and employment.

The contribution of artificial intelligence to productivity and employment remains limited for now. According to the report, the impact of AI has so far been largely confined to the technology sector, with broader productivity gains still several years away.

China’s outlook presents a more mixed picture. The country’s manufacturing sector continues to expand robustly, supported by its ability to produce higher-quality goods at lower prices and to limit the impact of tariffs on exports. “All this suggests that the Chinese manufacturing sector should continue to grow robustly,” Hatzius writes.

However, domestic demand remains weak. Property sales are down around 60% from their peak, while property starts have fallen by roughly 80%. Goldman Sachs estimates that the property sector will still subtract 1.5 percentage points from GDP growth in 2026. This imbalance is pushing China’s current account surplus higher, potentially reaching almost 1% of global GDP over the next three to five years, the largest surplus recorded for any country. Hatzius warns this could weigh on growth in economies that compete closely with China, particularly Germany.

Inflation across developed markets is expected to move closer to central bank targets in 2026. In the US, underlying inflation excluding tariffs is estimated at 2.3%, while slowing wage growth in both the US and UK is expected to ease further price pressures. Against this backdrop, policy rates are forecast to decline. The US Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 50 bps to 3-3.25%, while the UK is projected to lower rates to 3% by the third quarter of 2026. Norway is also expected to cut, while the European Central Bank is forecast to hold rates steady as inflation falls.

 

UK firms look to AI and skills to drive productivity in 2026

UK businesses are prioritising investment in people and technology as they position for growth in 2026, with training and artificial intelligence emerging as two of the most common focus areas, according to the latest Lloyds Business Barometer. The survey of 1,200 firms shows that 35% plan to invest in team training next year, while 33% expect to increase their use of AI tools. Both rank among a broader set of initiatives aimed at improving competitiveness in what respondents describe as an increasingly fast-paced operating environment.

Boosting productivity tops the list of strategic priorities for 2026, cited by 42% of businesses. This is followed by upskilling staff at 39% and strengthening technological capabilities at 37%. When asked where additional support will be needed to meet these goals, firms most commonly point to technology and productivity, both at 35%, alongside upskilling at 31%. A quarter of respondents also highlight plans to expand their global reach.

Earlier findings from the Lloyds Business Barometer add weight to the focus on digital investment. Research conducted earlier in 2025 shows that 82% of UK firms already using AI report productivity gains, reinforcing the view that technology adoption is translating into measurable operational benefits.

For corporate treasurers and CFOs, the survey points to a likely rise in near-term investment spending, particularly on technology, data infrastructure and workforce development. While these outlays may place short-term pressure on cash flows, they also underline the growing importance of aligning funding, liquidity planning and return expectations with longer-term productivity improvements. As more firms commit capital to AI-driven transformation, treasurers may also face greater scrutiny around how investment programmes are financed and how benefits are tracked over time.

Alongside insights from the survey, Lloyds highlights its own focus on building AI capability internally, including a six-month ‘Leading with AI’ programme run with Cambridge University and an AI Academy available to all staff. In 2025, the bank also hosted its largest Data & AI Summer School, delivering more than 250 sessions aimed at developing advanced data and AI skills.

“These are investment priorities that will support businesses’ long-term growth, helping them capitalise on new opportunities that arise in the year ahead, but also build a firm foundation well beyond 2026,” says Paul Kempster, managing director for commercial banking coverage at Lloyds Business & Commercial Banking.

 

GTreasury acquires Solvexia to expand reconciliation and compliance automation

GTreasury has acquired Solvexia, extending its treasury platform to include automated reconciliation and regulatory reporting as finance teams face rising operational and compliance complexity. The transaction brings Solvexia’s no-code automation, data management and analytics capabilities into GTreasury’s treasury management and digital asset infrastructure. The combined platform is intended to reduce reliance on manual, spreadsheet-based processes across treasury, finance and compliance functions, which continue to be a source of operational risk and audit exposure for many organisations.

By adding reconciliation and regulatory reporting automation, GTreasury is broadening its scope beyond core treasury activities toward a more integrated finance control environment. The company positions the move as a response to increasing regulatory demands and the need for greater consistency and transparency across financial processes.

GTreasury chief executive Renaat Ver Eecke says the acquisition is aimed at closing long-standing gaps between treasury management, reconciliation and compliance reporting, particularly where manual processes create vulnerabilities in governance and oversight.

The expanded platform will support automated reconciliation across payment gateways, banking systems, enterprise resource planning platforms and internal records, covering both fiat and digital asset transactions. The functionality is designed to help organisations identify discrepancies, detect potential revenue leakage and verify intercompany settlements more efficiently.

Additional capabilities include embedded governance controls around approval workflows, automated regulatory reporting intended to reduce preparation timelines, and audit-readiness features such as version control and complete audit trails. These tools are aimed at supporting finance teams during close cycles and regulatory submissions, particularly in multi-entity or multi-jurisdictional environments.

For corporate treasurers and CFOs, the deal reflects a broader trend toward consolidating treasury, accounting and compliance activities within fewer platforms. As transaction volumes increase and regulatory scrutiny intensifies, automation of reconciliation and reporting processes is becoming a priority to improve control, reduce risk and maintain visibility without adding operational burden.

The acquisition also underlines continued consolidation in the treasury technology market, as providers expand beyond traditional cash and risk management into adjacent areas of financial control and compliance.

 

Euro area expands to 21 member states with Bulgaria adopting the single currency

The euro has entered circulation in Bulgaria, increasing the number of European Union member states using the single currency to 21 and marking a significant step in the country’s financial and institutional integration with the euro area.

The change follows a formal decision taken in July, which confirmed Bulgaria’s entry into the euro area and set the irrevocable conversion rate at 1.95583 Bulgarian lev per euro. With the switch now complete, Bulgaria becomes fully embedded within the euro area’s monetary, supervisory and payment infrastructures.

As part of the transition, the Bulgarian National Bank joins the Eurosystem, and its governor takes a seat on the Governing Council of the European Central Bank. The central bank also becomes a full participant in the Single Supervisory Mechanism, having previously operated under the close cooperation framework since October 2020.

The ECB is now responsible for the direct supervision of four significant credit institutions in Bulgaria and the oversight of 17 less significant institutions. It also assumes responsibility for licensing banks and assessing qualifying holdings across the Bulgarian banking sector. The Bulgarian National Bank is represented on the ECB’s Supervisory Board.

From an operational perspective, Bulgaria’s entry has implications for both banks and corporate treasurers operating in or with the country. Bulgarian counterparties will be eligible to participate in ECB open market operations announced after 1 January 2026, while assets located in Bulgaria that meet the relevant criteria will be added to the euro area’s eligible collateral list. Transitional provisions for minimum reserve requirements were announced in October 2025, with further technical details to be published by the ECB.

The Bulgarian National Bank has completed its financial obligations associated with joining the euro area, including paying the remaining portion of its contribution to the ECB’s capital and transferring its share of foreign reserve assets.

The Bulgarian market has also joined the Eurosystem’s TARGET services, enabling the free flow of cash, securities and collateral across the euro area. These include T2 for payment settlement, T2S for securities settlement, TIPS for instant payments and ECMS for collateral management. Settlement in euro via T2S and TIPS had already been available to Bulgarian participants since 2023 and 2024 respectively, and the full migration of counterparties has now been completed.

For corporates, the move removes currency conversion risk between Bulgaria and the rest of the euro area, simplifies cross-border payments and cash management, and brings Bulgarian banking operations fully within the ECB’s monetary and supervisory framework.

 

BNP Paribas completes asset management merger following AXA IM acquisition

BNP Paribas has completed the main legal mergers underpinning the integration of its asset management activities, creating a single asset management entity following its acquisition of AXA Investment Managers last year. As of 31 December 2025, the group’s asset management businesses, AXA Investment Managers, BNP Paribas Real Estate Investment Management and BNP Paribas Asset Management, have merged their main legal entities under a unified structure owned by BNP Paribas Cardif. The combined business now operates under a single brand, BNP Paribas Asset Management.

The move formalises the operational integration of the three businesses following BNP Paribas’ acquisition of AXA Investment Managers on 1 July 2025. It brings together a range of investment capabilities spanning liquid assets, alternatives and real estate under one legal and governance framework.

Following the merger, BNP Paribas Asset Management oversees more than €1.6 trillion in assets under management on behalf of institutional, corporate, retail and wealth clients. Within this total, the group’s liquid assets platform accounts for over €1 trillion, while its alternatives business manages approximately €300bn, reflecting more than three decades of activity in that segment.

The consolidation places BNP Paribas Asset Management among the three largest asset managers in Europe by assets, while maintaining a global footprint across client segments and geographies. The group positions the unified structure as a way to simplify its asset management offering and strengthen coordination across investment strategies.

For institutional investors and corporate treasury teams, the completion of the merger signals greater scale and consolidation within the European asset management market, alongside a simplified counterparty structure for investment and liquidity mandates.

 

Deutsche Bank extends Wero across real-time and online payments

Deutsche Bank and Postbank have begun offering the full functionality of the Wero digital payments app to their clients, extending access to real-time peer-to-peer transfers and online merchant payments across multiple European markets. Customers of both banks can now use Wero to send and receive money in real time to personal contacts across Europe and to pay at participating e-commerce merchants. Postbank customers, who have been able to make peer-to-peer transfers via Wero since November 2024, now gain access to the app’s online payment capability.

Wero is operated by the European Payments Initiative and has been live since July 2024. The initiative is backed by 16 major European banks and payment service providers and is intended to support instant account-to-account payments without the need to enter IBAN or BIC details. The longer-term objective is to establish a unified European mobile payments solution underpinned by a domestically governed digital wallet.

For Deutsche Bank, the expanded rollout brings both its retail and merchant-facing activities into the Wero ecosystem. The bank is positioning itself as a partner for European merchants and fintechs seeking to integrate Wero as a payment option, allowing them to accept payments from customers in Germany and four other European countries where the service is already available.

The app is directly linked to customers’ current accounts at Deutsche Bank or Postbank, meaning payments are debited and credited immediately without the need to pre-fund a separate wallet. Integration of Wero into the Deutsche Bank Mobile and Postbank banking apps is planned for a later stage, giving users the option to access the service either via the standalone Wero app or through their existing mobile banking platforms.

Wero’s functionality is expected to broaden over time. Since November 2025, the app has supported payments at participating online retailers. Future developments include recurring payments such as subscriptions, point-of-sale payments in physical retail locations, and additional services including instalment payments, merchant loyalty features and tools for managing shared expenses.

The expansion of Wero highlights the continued push toward pan-European instant payments infrastructure. As adoption grows, the scheme could reduce reliance on international card networks for certain transactions and support faster settlement, simpler reconciliation and improved cash visibility for businesses operating across multiple European markets.

 

Basware buys Redmap to expand AP automation footprint in Australia

Basware has acquired Australian accounts payable automation provider Redmap, extending its presence in the local market and strengthening its position across the Asia-Pacific region. The deal brings Redmap’s AP automation software into Basware’s broader invoice lifecycle management offering, targeting mid-sized and enterprise organisations seeking to digitise invoice processing and compliance workflows. Redmap operates across sectors including retail, mining and aged care, and integrates with a range of enterprise resource planning platforms used by Australian businesses.

The acquisition comes amid growing regulatory and operational pressure on finance teams across the region. Governments are accelerating the adoption of e-invoicing standards, while regulatory change, including Australia’s revised Aged Care Act, is adding complexity to invoice processing and record-keeping requirements. As a result, demand for automated AP solutions is increasing among organisations dealing with higher invoice volumes and tighter compliance expectations.

Market data cited by the company values the AP automation market in the Asia-Pacific region at US$770m in 2025, with projections suggesting it could reach US$1.4bn by 2030. Basware positions the acquisition as a way to address this growth opportunity by combining its global platform with Redmap’s local customer base and ERP integrations.

Redmap’s customer portfolio includes organisations across multiple industries, as well as partnerships with ERP providers such as Pronto Software. Following the acquisition, its technology will be incorporated into Basware’s wider platform, which supports invoice processing, compliance controls and analytics across large transaction volumes.

Basware states that Redmap will continue to develop its platform using the group’s technology resources, with a focus on scaling its existing capabilities within Australia and beyond.

 

FAB and Mastercard introduce mobile virtual cards for UAE corporates

First Abu Dhabi Bank and Mastercard have launched a mobile-first virtual corporate card solution for businesses in the UAE, marking the first deployment of Mastercard’s proprietary mobile virtual card number (VCN) platform in the EEMEA region. The service allows enterprises and government entities to issue and manage virtual corporate cards that can be added directly to mobile wallets and used for both online and in-store transactions. The cards are generated digitally and linked to centralised controls, enabling organisations to manage spending without relying on physical cards.

The launch comes as corporate payment processes across the UAE continue to shift toward digital and contactless models. Mobile-first virtual cards are positioned as a way to support faster payment execution, reduce manual expense handling and improve oversight of accounts payable activity. By integrating with mobile wallets, the solution is designed to fit into existing payment habits while removing the need for separate card distribution or reconciliation workflows.

For finance teams, the platform introduces real-time card issuance and transaction visibility, with controls intended to support tighter expense governance. Centralised dashboards provide an overview of spending across users and use cases, potentially simplifying reporting and audit processes while supporting data-led decision-making around cash and liquidity.

The launch also reflects broader investment trends in business-to-business payments across the UAE. Research cited by the partners indicates that 45% of companies in the country are investing in mobile technology for B2B payments, highlighting growing demand for tools that combine speed, security and operational efficiency.

From a corporate treasury perspective, wider adoption of mobile virtual cards could support improved working capital management by accelerating payment cycles and reducing processing friction. The ability to deploy cards instantly for specific transactions or suppliers may also offer greater flexibility in managing short-term spend, particularly for procurement, travel or ad hoc expenses.

The rollout adds to ongoing efforts by banks and payment networks in the region to modernise corporate payment infrastructure, as businesses seek scalable digital alternatives to traditional card and bank transfer models.