Goldman Sachs revises down year-end S&P 500 forecast

Amid signs of slowing US GDP growth and a spike in trade-policy uncertainty, Goldman Sachs Research revised its year-end forecast for the S&P 500 Index from 6500 to 6200. This suggests an increase of about 7% in the price of the index throughout the rest of the year (as of 25 March). Equities have also been buffeted by investors, particularly hedge funds, unwinding portfolio positions.

“The headwinds to equity valuations from a spike in uncertainty are typically relatively short lived,” said David Kostin, Chief US Equity Strategist at Goldman Sachs Research. “However, an outlook for slower growth suggests lower valuations on a more sustained basis.”  

Over the last 40 years, the S&P 500 index has experienced a drawdown, or peak-to-trough decline, of 10% in the average year. That’s in line with this year’s earlier 10% decline.

“Outside of a recession, history shows that S&P 500 drawdowns are usually good buying opportunities if the economy and earnings continue to grow,” added Kostin. Goldman Sachs Research economists forecast US GDP growth of 1.7% in 2025. 

During the last 40 years, an investor buying the S&P 500 after it declined 10% from its high would have enjoyed a positive return in the subsequent six months, some 76% of the time.  

To protect their portfolios against volatility, Kostin’s team suggests that investors screen for the stocks with low sensitivity to major themes driving market fluctuations such as US economic growth, trade risk, and AI.

 

China, Singapore and Middle East interoperable digital trade pilot completed

The first end-to-end interoperable trade digitalisation pilot between China, Singapore, and the Middle East, jointly promoted by the Office of the Leading Group for the Work of the China (Beijing) Pilot Free Trade Zone and the Integrated National Demonstration Zone for Opening up the Services Sector (referred to as the "Beijing Two-Zone Office") and Singapore’s Infocomm Media Development Authority (IMDA), was successfully completed in March.

The pilot, implemented by Minimax (Beijing) Fire Fighting System Co., Ltd., entrusted Singapore shipping company Pacific International Lines (PIL) to transport a firefighting equipment container by sea from Shanghai Port to Dammam/Jeddah Port in Saudi Arabia and then by land to Minimax’s project location in Jazan. The pilot was supported by AEOTrade, which initiated blockchain technology through a trusted trade cooperation network (AEOTradeChain) and IMDA’s TradeTrust framework to enable the issuance of electronic bills of lading (eBLs) by PIL.

The pilot focused on two core innovations in the “electronic transferable document” process: First, the development of a “blockchain-based certification + dual-platform verification” mechanism, which recorded the data hash values of 11 key points in the process of issuing, transferring, and clearing eBLs on the blockchain; second, the introduction of the “China-Singapore Cooperation + Middle East Application Scenario” integration model, which enabled the cross-border connectivity and secure sharing of 28 trade data items.

According to the participating companies, the pilot demonstrated that the use of transferable documents like eBLs supported by a distributed system improved the efficiency of cargo rights transfer by 80% (from 5-7 days to real-time delivery) and increased logistics traceability by 65%. The cross-border digital collaboration system also reduced compliance costs by 40% (saving approximately $120 per order), shortened the eBL circulation time from the traditional 7 days to 8 hours, and achieved 100% visibility in goods-in-transit management while improving customs clearance efficiency by 60%. 

 

CRM technologies are most valued in the finance function

Customer relationship management (CRM) technologies are the most valued in the finance function, according to a survey by Gartner, Inc. The survey of 383 finance leaders taken in October 2024 showed that CRM technology, cloud ERP and analytics and business intelligence (ABI) tools were the top three most valued technologies in the finance function, with all three expected to see high levels of future investment.

“CFOs are increasingly relying on CRM applications to analyse sales forecasts more accurately, using historical performance data to evaluate the likelihood of sales materialising,” said Nick Duffy, Senior Director Analyst in the Gartner Finance practice. “The fact that this is the highest valued technology in this survey shows CFOs are looking for deeper insight on customer trends that drive financial outcomes.”

Cloud enterprise resource planning (ERP) is establishing a new standard of value, with finance functions keen to tap into the advanced features that tend to be available via subscription model cloud ERP systems.

“It’s telling that on-premises ERP was the most discontinued technology in this survey, with almost 20% of respondents planning to discontinue or already having discontinued its use,” added Duffy. “On premises ERP is now considered a low-value technology as we see a growing preference for cloud ERP systems.”

Analytics and business intelligence (ABI) tools in finance are used for data visualisation, as well as for data prep, modelling, logic writing, and analytical tools.

“With a volatile business environment, there’s a need to provide faster, decision-ready financial insights to leaders in the business,” said Duffy. “Integration with AI capabilities is making this more accessible than ever for finance teams, so these tools rank highly for adoption and future investment currently.”

 

Mastercard launches programme to streamline virtual card adoption

Mastercard is rolling out a new programme designed to accelerate the adoption of virtual card numbers (VCNs) among banks, platforms and corporate users. The initiative aims to simplify integration and support the wider use of embedded payments in commercial finance.

From 1 April, banks using Mastercard’s VCN technology will be able to onboard platform partners through the scheme without forming direct relationships or handling bilateral integration processes. The company says this removes a long-standing barrier to scaling virtual card solutions and enables quicker access to embedded payment capabilities.

The programme builds on Mastercard’s existing partnerships with enterprise resource planning providers and commercial platforms. Virtual card functionality is already being integrated into expense management systems, hotel booking platforms and event technology tools, with partners including HRS and Cvent.

The updated model is designed to deliver a more streamlined experience for corporate end-users, allowing them to complete tasks such as invoice payments or expense reconciliation with fewer clicks, directly within their ERP systems. For banks, the approach offers new opportunities to scale embedded payment solutions; for platforms, it reduces technical and contractual complexity.

The broader goal is to replicate the ease and immediacy of consumer payments in a business context, something increasingly expected by employees managing financial workflows. Mastercard’s updated onboarding framework removes the need for traditional contracting, technical vetting and form-filling, processes which have often slowed implementation in the past.

By making it easier for participants to join its VCN ecosystem, Mastercard is positioning itself to support a faster and more efficient model for commercial payments at scale.

 

Taulia and Lloyds partner to embed Visa virtual cards in SAP systems

Taulia and Lloyds Bank have formed a partnership to integrate Visa-enabled virtual cards into business-to-business payment flows, embedding the technology within SAP’s enterprise systems used by corporate clients.

The collaboration allows Lloyds to issue virtual cards through Taulia’s platform, enabling corporates to make supplier payments directly from within the SAP Business Suite. The solution is built using Visa’s APIs and is designed to operate seamlessly within enterprise resource planning systems, reducing manual intervention and increasing efficiency.

Taulia, part of the SAP group, offers working capital management tools that integrate with payment infrastructure. By joining forces with Lloyds, part of Lloyds Banking Group, the companies aim to offer a fully embedded experience for UK businesses, improving control over spend while supporting automation and liquidity management.

The solution removes friction from B2B payment processes by embedding functionality within existing tools rather than relying on separate portals or manual steps. This integration is designed to make payment workflows faster, more secure, and easier to manage.

Visa’s involvement provides the infrastructure to enable supplier acceptance and global reach, supporting clients as they expand their payments footprint. The virtual card model also brings benefits such as improved transparency, reduced fraud risk and enhanced cash flow oversight.

Taulia’s chief product officer, Danielle Weinblatt, said the partnership “redefines how businesses manage spend” by bringing virtual card functionality directly into ERP systems. Linda Weston, head of commercial cards at Lloyds Bank, said the solution would help clients adopt virtual payments more easily and realise their strategic objectives. Visa’s head of commercial solutions in Europe, Lucy Demery, described embedded finance as a “strategic opportunity” for driving transformation in commercial payments.

 

TransferMate joins RTGS.global network to enhance real-time cross-border payments

RTGS.global has added TransferMate to its real-time settlement network as part of a strategic partnership designed to simplify cross-border payments and liquidity management for global businesses. The integration allows TransferMate to process instant, peer-to-peer transactions using RTGS.global’s atomic settlement platform, bypassing traditional correspondent banking networks and eliminating the need for pre-funded accounts. The aim is to enable international payments to settle with the speed and simplicity of domestic transfers while reducing both cost and risk.

By operating on a Payment versus Payment (PvP) model, the network ensures that both sides of a transaction are executed simultaneously and securely, avoiding the delays and fees commonly associated with legacy payment systems. The removal of intermediaries is also intended to improve transparency and operational efficiency for finance teams managing global flows.

TransferMate’s addition extends the reach of RTGS.global’s network to more than 200 countries and territories, supporting a wider range of currencies and geographies. This expanded access is expected to benefit corporates by improving payment speed and accuracy and by enhancing control over liquidity.

With businesses facing mounting pressure to modernise financial infrastructure, particularly in light of evolving global settlement standards, the partnership positions RTGS.global and TransferMate to deliver faster, round-the-clock payments that can function across time zones and outside traditional banking hours.

The collaboration reflects a broader trend in financial services: moving away from siloed, intermediary-heavy systems toward integrated, real-time settlement networks that offer more flexibility for treasurers and finance professionals managing complex global operations.

 

Standard Chartered rolls out SC GPT

Standard Chartered has launched SC GPT, a Generative AI (GenAI) tool, across 41 markets worldwide, reinforcing its commitment to innovation. Designed to enhance operational efficiency and client engagement, the bank says that SC GPT marks a significant step in its strategy to integrate AI into its business.

Set to be available to over 70,000 employees worldwide, the bank’s aim is that SC GPT will improve both operations and productivity; tailor sales and marketing efforts to increase revenue; advance software engineering with more automation; and scale how risks are measured, managed, recorded and reported. 

A more customised version that allows the bank to use Group data to better solve problems particular to Standard Chartered is also underway. Local teams can also leverage SC GPT to develop tailored solutions that address market-specific needs. Use cases include content generation for digital marketing, translation and customer enablement services, specifically in product and service advisory. Standard Chartered says it plans to expand SC GPT to 10 more markets over the coming months.

 

Visa and Extend partner to support virtual card adoption in the middle market

Visa has entered into a referral agreement with virtual card provider Extend in a move aimed at broadening the use of embedded payment solutions among emerging middle-market businesses. The agreement allows Visa to connect its network of issuing banks with Extend’s virtual card and spend management platform, offering finance teams greater control over business-to-business payments. The partnership is designed to support companies that are looking for ways to streamline financial operations without switching their existing cards or banking relationships.

Extend’s technology enables businesses to issue virtual cards for a range of use cases, including paying vendors, managing subscriptions, tracking tail spend and automating expense reconciliation. The platform works with credit lines already in place and is compatible with more than half of business credit cards currently used by small and midsize firms in the US.

By integrating with existing banking infrastructure, Extend offers Visa-issuing banks an additional channel to reach mid-sized clients seeking more flexible, data-rich payment tools. For end users, the aim is to provide functionality that mirrors the convenience of consumer payments while offering the controls and reporting capabilities needed in a corporate environment.

 

ORX launches industry-wide library to support operational risk resilience

ORX has launched what it describes as the first industry-wide reference library of processes and services designed to support operational risk management across the financial sector. Developed in collaboration with McKinsey & Company and based on input from 50 global banks and insurers, the library provides firms with a standardised framework for managing end-to-end business processes and critical services.

The launch comes as financial institutions face increasing pressure from both regulators and operational demands, particularly as digital transformation and third-party reliance accelerate. Regulatory initiatives such as the Basel Committee’s Principles for Operational Resilience, the EU’s Digital Operational Resilience Act (DORA), the UK’s FCA PS21/3, and Australia’s CPS 230 are all pushing firms to strengthen their approach to resilience planning.

Built on a dataset of 60,000 processes and services contributed by ORX members, the new tool offers a way for firms to benchmark their internal models against an industry-wide standard. It also supports efforts to develop consistent views of how services are delivered and how risks are managed throughout the full process chain.

According to ORX, while a large majority of firms already use process libraries and a growing number have developed service libraries, relatively few have integrated the two. The new resource is intended to help create a unified model that connects key services to their underlying processes, with a clear link to associated risks and controls.

The library is designed to have a wide range of applications. It can support more accurate risk identification and control assessment, assist in third-party oversight, and enable greater process efficiency. By offering a shared taxonomy and a consistent level of detail, the tool also lays the groundwork for control automation and process standardisation.

ORX says the reference model will support firms in their shift toward an end-to-end view of operational risk. The library includes two distinct but related components: one focused on business processes and the other on services. Together, they aim to help financial institutions build resilience more efficiently and with greater clarity.

 

Affirm and J.P. Morgan Payments to offer instalment options at checkout

Affirm is expanding its relationship with J.P. Morgan Payments in a move that is designed to provide more flexible payment options to merchants using the J.P. Morgan Commerce Platform in the United States. Under the deepened agreement, Affirm’s pay-over-time plans will become available to J.P. Morgan’s network of merchant clients. The partnership is intended to support businesses seeking to diversify the payment methods they offer at checkout, particularly as consumer expectations around instalment options and transparency continue to evolve.

Through the integration, consumers making purchases via participating merchants on the Commerce Platform will be able to select Affirm as a payment option during checkout. If eligible, they will be presented with a set of tailored instalment plans, including biweekly and monthly options. Affirm’s system is designed to support transactions ranging from US$35 to US$30,000, with repayment terms between 30 days and 60 months.

According to Affirm, its technology uses real-time underwriting and proprietary risk assessment to enable broader access across a range of consumer profiles. The company states that its offerings are structured to exclude hidden or late fees, and aims to provide payment transparency to users.

The extended partnership comes amid continued growth in consumer uptake of instalment services. Affirm recently reported a year-on-year increase of 23% in active users, bringing its total to 21 million, and a 35% rise in gross merchandise volume, which reached over US$10bn in the final quarter of 2024.

Affirm will also join the J.P. Morgan Payments Partner Network, a group that includes third-party providers alongside the bank’s own suite of payment solutions. The network is designed to help clients shape and implement payment strategies suited to their specific operational and customer requirements.

 

RMB solid as fourth most active global payments currency in February

Swift’s RMB Tracker has shown that in February, the RMB remained the fourth most active currency for global payments by value, with a share of 4.33%. Overall, RMB payment value increased by 4.92% compared to January, while all payment currencies decreased by 8.07%. Regarding international payments, excluding payments within the Eurozone, the RMB ranked fifth with a share of 3.04% in February.

The tracker uses data from live and delivered MT 103 and MT 202 - customer-initiated and institutional payments - and ISO equivalent messages exchanged on Swift. RMB’s fourth place out of all international currencies in February saw it behind the US dollar (48.95% of all global payments value), the euro (22.25%), and the British pound (6.89%).

As a global currency in the trade finance market, based on live and delivered inter-group only MT 400 and MT 700 messages exchanged on SWIFT, RMB took second place based on value, accounting for 6.34% of February’s trade finance transactions. This field remains dominated by the US dollar (81.88%), with the euro taking the third-highest share (6.19%).

Regarding FX spot transactions, RMB was February’s fifth most used currency for FX confirmations. The US dollar again claimed the top spot here, followed by the euro, pound and yen. In terms of the top economies carrying out FX spot transactions in RMB, the UK came out on top in February (42.25%), followed by the US (14.51%), Hong Kong (10.66%), France (9.12%), and China (5.74%).