HSBC predictions for how RMB use will evolve over next 12 months
by Kylene Casanova
In their RMB Internationalization 2015 Survey HSBC found that in the next 12 months most businesses are going to increase their business with China. although increase varies by country:
% of businesses who expect an increase in internationalcross-border business with China in the next 12 months
Source & Copyright©2015 - HSBC RMB interntionalisation survey 2015
Usage of RMB
The survey found that the main features of the usage of RMB in next 12 months will be that:
- those businesses intending to use RMB in the near future, import/export trading will continue to be the most common driver for RMB transactions
- businesses in Hong Kong and Taiwan are more likely to use RMB for investments, letters of credit, and liquidity management solutions
- in China, the slow down in economic growth in China in conjunction with the FX variation over time, as well as the economic headwinds in this market, will slow the growth in their use of RMB
- 25% of non-users intend to start using RMB for cross-border business in the future, particularly among Asia Pacific markets, Mainland China and Taiwan
- outside of Asia Pacific, there is a slight weakening in intent across all markets with the exception of Germany, which has slightly strengthened
Experts consider that RMB usage outside of Asia-Pacific will remain low because: bilateral trades with China are not yet settled in RMB outside of Asia; corporates are reluctant to hold RMB positions due to currency risk; and Chinese banks do not have strong links with buy-side outside of Asia.
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