Iran strikes push oil higher and raise inflation risks

Oil prices have jumped following US and Israeli strikes on Iran, raising concerns that renewed instability in the Middle East could feed through into higher inflation and slower economic growth. Brent crude, the international benchmark, surged above US$100 a barrel on Monday, 9 March, up from US$61 at the end of last year. The move reflects concerns that conflict could disrupt shipping and energy infrastructure in a region that remains critical to global oil flows.

A key focus for markets is the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow shipping corridor that carries roughly one fifth of global oil supply. While Iran produces around 5% of global oil output, its geographic position means disruption to the strait or nearby infrastructure could have a much wider impact on global energy markets.

“The most notable exception to this pattern, however, is when geopolitics disrupt energy markets,” says Jack Manley, global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. “Energy shocks are challenging because they can be both recessionary and inflationary.”

Higher energy costs can weigh on households by reducing disposable income while also feeding directly into inflation through fuel prices and indirectly through higher transport and manufacturing costs. That combination can leave central banks facing a difficult policy trade-off between slowing growth and rising prices.

Economists at Goldman Sachs say the economic impact will depend largely on whether shipping disruptions emerge in the region. “History suggests that oil price spikes driven by geopolitical shocks can be short-lived if markets gain confidence that supply disruptions will be temporary,” write Jessica Rindels and Pierfrancesco Mei in research.

Their analysis suggests each US$10 per barrel increase in oil prices would reduce US economic growth this year by about 0.1 percentage points if prices stabilise at that level.

Inflation may prove more sensitive. Goldman Sachs estimates that a sustained 10% rise in oil prices would increase US headline consumer price inflation by around 28 basis points. If oil prices rose by US$10 and remained elevated for three months, year-on-year inflation could rise from 2.4% in January to roughly 3% by May.

Despite the risks, analysts note that global energy markets appear better positioned to absorb supply shocks than in previous decades. OPEC+ retains spare production capacity, US shale output remains near record highs and global oil demand typically softens during warmer months.

Structural changes in the US economy may also cushion the impact. Energy consumption per unit of GDP has declined significantly since the 1970s, and the US has become a net energy exporter in recent years.

Manley says these factors may reduce the economic fallout compared with past oil shocks. “None of this renders the US economy immune to price spikes, but it does reduce the magnitude of the impact relative to past cycles,” he says.

For corporate finance and treasury teams, the episode highlights how geopolitical tensions can quickly feed into commodity prices and inflation expectations, even when broader economic fundamentals remain relatively resilient. CTMfile recently published an analysis of the economic fallout from the conflict, including several key actions for corporates to take as a result of the volatility, which you can find here. 

 

Swift rolls out framework to speed up cross-border retail payments

Swift and a group of global banks will begin rolling out a new framework for cross-border retail payments by the end of June, aiming to improve the speed, cost transparency and predictability of international transfers for consumers and small businesses. More than 25 banks are expected to go live with the framework in the initial phase, covering remittance corridors including Australia, Bangladesh, Canada, China, Germany, India, Pakistan, Spain, Thailand, the UK and the US. Several of these markets rank among the world’s largest recipients of remittances.

Under the framework, transfers sent through participating corridors will offer greater predictability for senders, including full-value delivery, end-to-end tracking and upfront clarity on fees. Instant settlement will also be possible where supported by domestic payment infrastructure.

Swift developed the initiative with a voluntary coalition of early-adopter banks following an announcement last year. While around 75% of payments sent through the Swift network already reach the beneficiary bank within 10 minutes, the organisation says the remaining bottlenecks often occur before the payment enters the network or during the final domestic leg.

“The financial community has made strong collective progress to improve the speed and transparency of cross-border payments, but there is room to go further,” says Nasir Ahmed, head of payments scheme at Swift. “Everyone should be able to transact internationally at pace, safe in the knowledge that the full value will arrive with the recipient and that the fees will be affordable and fixed from the start.”

Banks participating in the rollout say the framework addresses a long-standing disconnect between domestic payment expectations and the realities of cross-border transfers.

“Moving money across borders should be as easy as making payments domestically,” says Emanuela Saccarola, head of cross-border payments services at Citi, noting that improvements to existing infrastructure can help reduce friction across the payment chain.

For banks serving international clients, predictability around settlement timing and costs remains a key operational challenge.

“Greater transparency and predictability around timing, cost and payment outcomes will support financial institutions in delivering a more consistent experience to their customers,” says Ciaran Byrne, global head of product and client solutions for institutional cash management at Deutsche Bank.

Customer expectations are also evolving rapidly as instant domestic payment systems become widespread. “Clients expect instant, 24/7 cross-border payments,” says Danielle Sharpe, global head of financial institutions clearing at Standard Chartered, pointing to advances in technology and market infrastructure that are gradually making those capabilities feasible internationally.

The framework forms part of Swift’s broader effort to modernise cross-border payments in line with the G20 roadmap, which aims to improve the speed, cost and accessibility of international transfers.

For participating banks, the initiative also highlights the importance of coordinated industry action to upgrade payments infrastructure. “When the industry builds trusted, transparent infrastructure, organisations around the world benefit,” says Lori Schwartz, global head of treasury services at J.P. Morgan Payments.

 

Nearly half of banks lagging on ISO 20022 readiness

Nearly half of banks remain behind schedule in preparing for the next phase of ISO 20022 implementation, despite significant spending and expanded delivery teams ahead of the November 2026 deadline. New research from RedCompass Labs, based on a survey of 308 senior payments professionals across Europe and North America, finds that 44% of institutions are not currently on track to meet the upcoming requirement to migrate to structured postal address data in cross-border payments messaging.

The findings highlight the scale of the operational changes still required following the 2025 CBPR+ “end of co-existence” milestone, when Swift fully transitioned cross-border payments to the ISO 20022 messaging standard.

The next phase of the programme introduces stricter data requirements. From mid-November 2026, unstructured postal addresses will no longer be permitted in CBPR+ messages, requiring banks to support structured address fields across their payments infrastructure. At the same time, institutions must implement structured ISO 20022 processes for exceptions and investigations, replacing traditional free-text workflows with standardised CAMT messaging. Failure to meet the requirements could result in rejected payments and increased operational disruption.

The RedCompass Labs research suggests many institutions still face significant hurdles. Among the banks not currently on track to meet the structured address deadline, 40% describe their programmes as “recoverable”, while 4% say their projects are already at risk.

Large banks appear particularly concerned about the timeline. One in five institutions with assets of more than $250bn say the structured address deadline is unrealistic, compared with 5% of smaller institutions.

Progress on exceptions and investigations reforms also remains uneven. Just over a quarter of banks (27%) say they are only partially ready to receive structured ISO 20022 exception and investigation messages.

The delays come despite substantial investment across the sector. Most institutions report spending around $20m on ISO 20022 preparations, while the largest banks say their programmes exceed $30m. Banks are also expanding specialist teams, with institutions deploying an average of 13 additional staff to support delivery and nearly two-thirds assigning between six and 20 specialists to their ISO 20022 programmes.

Data quality remains one of the biggest obstacles. On average, 32% of customer address records remain unstructured, while nearly one in ten institutions report that more than half of their address data is still non-compliant. Meanwhile, 60% of respondents say gaps in core banking systems are limiting their ability to support structured address fields.

The research also indicates that many institutions are taking a limited compliance approach. Around 45% of banks say they are making only minimum-compliance changes to their exceptions and investigations workflows, while just 10% are pursuing broader operational transformation.

Pratiksha Pathak, partner and head of payments at RedCompass Labs, warns that banks should not assume the migration work is largely complete. “If banks thought their ISO 20022 migration was over in November 2025, they'd be mistaken,” she says. “The end of coexistence was really just the end of the beginning. A new wave of deadlines is already approaching, with major changes required for structured addresses and Exceptions & Investigations handling. There is still a lot of work to do.”

 

Bank of Canada and partners test tokenised bond issuance

The Bank of Canada, Export Development Canada (EDC), RBC and TD have completed a pilot project testing how distributed ledger technology (DLT) could be used to support bond issuance and settlement. The initiative, known as Project Samara, included the issuance of Canada’s first tokenised bond using a distributed ledger platform. The bond was issued by EDC and settled using wholesale central bank deposits, allowing the transaction to be completed entirely within a DLT-based infrastructure.

The experiment was designed to assess how tokenisation could support the full lifecycle of a bond, from issuance and investor bidding to coupon payments, redemption and secondary market trading. The Samara platform was built specifically for the project using Hyperledger Fabric and incorporated separate ledgers for cash and bond transactions.

As part of the pilot, EDC issued a C$100m bond with a maturity of less than three months to a closed group of investors. The bond was sold, traded and will continue to be managed on the platform throughout its lifecycle.

Project Samara builds on earlier work from the Bank of Canada’s Project Jasper series, which explored the use of distributed ledger technology in financial market infrastructure. Unlike previous tests, the latest experiment involved a real financial instrument settled with central bank money.

The participants reported that the system improved operational efficiency and data integrity while streamlining some workflows involved in bond issuance and settlement. The use of a shared ledger also helped reduce counterparty and settlement risk by enabling instant settlement of both cash and securities transactions.

However, the project also highlighted several challenges associated with adopting distributed ledger technology in capital markets. Participants identified increased operational complexity, additional governance requirements and higher coordination demands among institutions using the platform.

The experiment also raised regulatory and legal considerations, including how traditional roles such as marketplace operators, custodians and reporting entities would function within a DLT-based market structure.

“Project Samara shows how the public sector and industry can work together to harness innovation in the payment ecosystem,” says Ron Morrow, executive director, payments, supervision and oversight, Bank of Canada. “The Project allowed us to understand the real-world benefits and challenges of tokenisation in capital markets. The Bank welcomes further collaboration in this fast-developing area and will continue to play a role as enabler of innovation in payments that serve Canadians.”

 

UK investors extend equity fund sell-off to nine months

UK investors continued to pull money from equity funds in February, extending a record run of redemptions to nine consecutive months as market volatility unsettled sentiment. Data from Calastone’s Fund Flow Index, which tracks fund transactions across its network and scales them to represent the wider UK market, shows investors withdrew £927m from equity funds during the month. The February outflow was the largest since November 2025 and brings total redemptions since June last year to £12.2bn.

The latest selling appears to reflect active investor reactions to market swings rather than a collapse in demand for equities. Buying activity remained relatively steady during the month, while an increase in sell orders drove the net outflow.

Selling was concentrated during periods of market weakness, with noticeable spikes around 5 February, 16 February and 23 February, suggesting investors were closely monitoring market movements and adjusting positions as volatility increased.

Technology-focused funds were among the most heavily affected areas. Specialist sector funds recorded net outflows of £284m during February, with technology funds alone accounting for £162m, more than one sixth of total equity fund redemptions.

The broader trend also reflects a continuing divide between active and passive investment strategies. Actively managed equity funds have now recorded 14 consecutive months of outflows, while passive funds continue to attract inflows.

In February, investors withdrew £1.50bn from active equity funds but allocated £571m to passive equity products. Passive funds have not experienced net redemptions since August 2023.

Regionally, UK-focused equity funds saw the largest withdrawals, with net outflows of £555m. Global equity funds followed with £518m in redemptions. At the same time, investors shifted capital into other asset classes. Fixed income funds recorded inflows of £453m, while money market funds (MMFs) attracted £105m. Multi-asset funds saw particularly strong demand, drawing £1.47bn during the month.

Edward Glyn, head of global markets at Calastone, says market volatility and sector uncertainty appear to be shaping investor behaviour. “Investors seem to have got a taste for selling and are looking for reasons to pull money out of funds,” he says. “Certainly, February was a very volatile month for global share prices as successive waves of panic about which sectors will see their business models disrupted by AI swept through stock markets.”

Despite the selling pressure, equity markets themselves did not experience a sustained decline during the period, suggesting the withdrawals may reflect tactical repositioning rather than a broad loss of confidence in equities.

 

Citi issues digitally native structured note on Euroclear platform

Citi has issued its first digitally native structured note on Euroclear’s Digital Financial Market Infrastructure (D-FMI) platform, marking a step forward in the use of distributed ledger technology (DLT) within traditional capital markets issuance. The transaction represents the first digitally native structured note issued on Euroclear’s D-FMI platform and the first such instrument offered within the wealth management sector, according to the companies.

The note was issued under English law by Citigroup Global Markets Funding Luxembourg, reflecting the growing role of Luxembourg as a jurisdiction supporting digital financial market innovation. Structured notes are commonly used in wealth management to provide customised investment exposure linked to underlying assets such as equities, indices or interest rates. By issuing the instrument natively on a DLT-based platform, the transaction aims to demonstrate how digital infrastructure can be integrated into established capital markets frameworks while maintaining traditional investment structures.

“Issuing this digitally native structured note on Euroclear’s D-FMI platform demonstrates how we can deliver traditional structured products more efficiently by leveraging distributed ledger technology while preserving the full investment profile clients expect,” says Russell Budnick, head of capital markets, investment solutions for Citi Wealth.

Euroclear’s D-FMI platform is designed to enable the issuance, settlement and servicing of digital securities using distributed ledger technology while remaining compatible with existing market infrastructure and regulatory frameworks.

The development reflects broader efforts across capital markets to move digital issuance beyond experimental pilot programmes into production environments. Financial institutions and market infrastructure providers have increasingly explored the use of DLT to streamline post-trade processes, improve transparency and reduce operational complexity in securities issuance and settlement.

“This note illustrates how trusted market infrastructure can evolve to support innovation at scale,” says Isabelle Delorme, head of product strategy and innovation at Euroclear, adding that the goal is to embed digital issuance into existing market frameworks while maintaining legal certainty and investor protections.

The issuance forms part of Citi’s broader work on digital asset solutions across its markets business, as banks and infrastructure providers continue to explore how distributed ledger technology can support more efficient capital markets processes.

 

Ripple expands stablecoin payments platform

Ripple has expanded its Ripple Payments platform with new functionality designed to support stablecoin-based cross-border transactions alongside traditional fiat payments. The company says the updated platform allows financial institutions and fintech firms to collect, hold, exchange and distribute funds using both fiat currencies and stablecoins within a single infrastructure environment. The expansion follows Ripple’s recent acquisitions of Palisade, a custody and treasury automation provider, and Rail, a company focused on virtual accounts and payment collections.

The additional capabilities aim to streamline how organisations manage global payment flows by combining multiple processes that are often handled by separate providers. The platform now incorporates virtual account infrastructure, custody services and liquidity management tools designed to support transactions across both digital and traditional payment rails.

Ripple Payments is used by financial institutions and fintech firms to move funds internationally using blockchain-based infrastructure. The company says the platform is now operating in more than 60 markets.

The development reflects growing interest among financial institutions in using stablecoins for cross-border payments and liquidity management. Stablecoin transaction volumes have expanded rapidly in recent years as companies explore their potential to reduce settlement delays and pre-funding requirements associated with traditional international payments.

Ripple says the platform is designed to support a range of operational processes, including managing collections through virtual accounts, converting between fiat and digital assets, and settling payments to operational accounts.

Monica Long, president of Ripple, says financial institutions are increasingly seeking infrastructure capable of supporting both traditional and digital financial assets. “For the global financial system to evolve, fintechs and financial institutions need infrastructure that treats digital assets with the same rigour as traditional finance,” she says.

A number of financial institutions and payment providers are already using Ripple’s infrastructure to support cross-border payment flows. These include banks, fintech firms and payment orchestration providers operating across regions including Latin America, Asia-Pacific and Europe.

The platform expansion forms part of a broader push across the financial sector to develop infrastructure capable of supporting both digital and traditional forms of value transfer as blockchain-based payment technologies continue to mature.

 

CIMB and Ant International explore cross-border payments partnership

CIMB Group Holdings and Ant International have signed a memorandum of understanding to explore collaboration on cross-border payments and treasury and liquidity management solutions for businesses in Malaysia. The partnership will focus on developing digital infrastructure aimed at improving how companies manage international payments and liquidity flows. Under the agreement, the two organisations will examine the use of blockchain-based technology to support treasury operations, subject to relevant regulatory approvals.

CIMB will work with several of Ant International’s platforms, including Alipay+, Antom and Bettr Treasury. The collaboration will bring together CIMB’s capabilities in cash management, treasury and markets services, credit and financing, and capital markets with Ant International’s technology platforms.

A key element of the initiative involves exploring a digital framework designed to improve capital efficiency, transparency and cross-border liquidity management. The framework is expected to draw on Ant International’s blockchain-based treasury management infrastructure, which is designed to support the movement and management of funds across multiple jurisdictions.

If implemented, the framework could help businesses operating across Southeast Asia manage cross-border liquidity more efficiently by providing greater visibility over treasury positions and improving the coordination of payments and funding flows.

The agreement reflects broader efforts across the region’s financial sector to modernise cross-border payment infrastructure and explore the use of distributed ledger technology in corporate treasury operations. Financial institutions and technology providers are increasingly testing blockchain-based systems to address longstanding challenges in international payments, including settlement delays, liquidity fragmentation and limited transparency across payment chains.

For CIMB, the partnership forms part of its broader Forward30 strategy, which aims to expand the group’s digital financial services capabilities and strengthen its role in the region’s financial infrastructure. The bank has also recently joined Bank Negara Malaysia’s Digital Assets Innovation Hub, which supports the development and testing of digital asset use cases within the country’s financial system.

The collaboration also aligns with Ant International’s ongoing work with financial institutions to develop infrastructure for cross-border payments and tokenised financial services. Through the partnership, both organisations will explore how emerging technologies can support institutional treasury requirements and cross-border business activity in Malaysia and the wider region.

 

AccessPay integrates payee verification through PayPoint partnership

AccessPay has partnered with PayPoint to integrate confirmation of payee (CoP) capabilities into its payments automation platform, aiming to strengthen fraud and error prevention for corporate payment processes. The partnership will allow organisations using AccessPay’s bank integration platform to verify payee account details directly within their payment workflows before funds are sent. The functionality is designed to reduce the risk of authorised push payment (APP) fraud and minimise errors in high-volume payment environments.

Also known as account name verification, CoP checks that the name of a payee matches the bank account details provided. The process helps identify potential discrepancies before a payment is executed, reducing the likelihood of funds being sent to incorrect or fraudulent accounts.

The integration means AccessPay clients will be able to incorporate PayPoint’s verification service into automated payment processes such as payroll runs, supplier payments and other bulk transactions. The capability supports multiple access methods, including application programming interfaces, user interfaces and bulk processing, allowing organisations to embed verification checks into different stages of their payment operations.

The development comes amid continuing concerns about payment fraud. According to UK Finance’s Half-Year Fraud Report 2025, £258m was lost to authorised push payment fraud in the first half of the year alone.

By embedding verification checks into payment workflows, the partnership aims to help finance teams reduce operational risk while maintaining the efficiency gains associated with automated payment processes. Automated systems can process large volumes of transactions quickly, but they also require safeguards to prevent errors or fraudulent activity from being replicated at scale.

The integration forms part of a broader trend across corporate payments infrastructure toward embedding fraud detection and verification tools directly into payment systems. Financial technology providers and banks are increasingly incorporating identity checks and payment validation services to address the growing sophistication of payment fraud.

AccessPay provides bank connectivity and payment automation services for finance teams, linking corporate enterprise resource planning systems with banking infrastructure to streamline payment processing and reporting.

PayPoint’s confirmation of payee service is designed to support large-scale payment verification, allowing organisations to check payee details before payments are initiated while maintaining operational capacity during peak processing periods.

 

NTAM launches tokenised share class for MMF

Northern Trust Asset Management has launched a tokenised share class for its NIF Treasury Instruments Portfolio, marking the firm’s entry into the digital assets market. The new share class represents a digital mirror of the fund’s institutional share class recorded on blockchain infrastructure. The underlying investment strategy remains unchanged, providing exposure to a diversified portfolio of short-term US Treasury instruments.

The tokenised share class will initially be available to institutional investors through BNY’s LiquidityDirect platform, which uses the Goldman Sachs Digital Asset Platform to support blockchain-based financial instruments.

Tokenisation involves representing traditional financial assets on distributed ledger technology, allowing ownership records to be tracked and transferred digitally. Asset managers and market infrastructure providers have increasingly explored tokenisation as a way to improve operational processes such as settlement, reporting and record-keeping. MMFs have emerged as an early use case for tokenisation within asset management. Their relatively straightforward structures and focus on short-term, highly liquid securities make them well suited to experimentation with new digital issuance and record-keeping models.

Paula Kar, chief product officer at Northern Trust Asset Management, says the technology may offer operational improvements for investors. “Tokenisation delivers meaningful advantages, including improved settlement efficiency and enhanced visibility.”

The NIF Treasury Instruments Portfolio provides institutional investors with exposure to a diversified pool of short-term US Treasury securities. The new share class introduces a blockchain-based access layer while maintaining the existing governance and investment framework of the fund.

The launch is in line with a broader trend among asset managers, banks and financial market infrastructure providers exploring how distributed ledger technology could be integrated into traditional investment products. A number of firms have recently introduced tokenised versions of funds, bonds and other securities as the financial industry tests the potential role of digital infrastructure in mainstream capital markets.

 

SoFi and Mastercard explore stablecoin settlement for card payments

SoFi Technologies and Mastercard have announced an expanded partnership to explore the use of SoFiUSD as a settlement option across Mastercard’s global payments network. The initiative will examine how card issuers and acquirers could settle transactions using the US dollar-denominated stablecoin, potentially enabling faster settlement for card payments and supporting use cases such as cross-border remittances and business-to-business transfers.

SoFiUSD is issued by SoFi Bank, an insured deposit institution regulated by the US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. The stablecoin is fully backed 1:1 by US dollar reserves and operates on a public blockchain network.

Under the partnership, the companies will explore how stablecoin settlement could be integrated into Mastercard’s existing infrastructure. The project will also test interoperability between traditional payment rails and digital asset networks.

SoFiUSD is expected to be supported on Mastercard’s Multi-Token Network, a platform designed to connect digital assets with existing financial infrastructure and support transactions involving fiat currencies, stablecoins and tokenised deposits. SoFi Bank is also expected to test settling some of its Mastercard credit and debit transactions using SoFiUSD. Galileo, SoFi’s financial technology platform, is expected to offer its card issuing clients the option to settle payments using the stablecoin.

The move reflects growing interest among banks and payment networks in the potential role of stablecoins in payment settlement, particularly for cross-border payments and real-time transfers. Industry data cited by the companies suggests stablecoin usage continues to expand rapidly, with around $30bn of transactions processed daily and issuance volumes doubling in 2025 compared with the previous year.

The two companies say they will also explore additional stablecoin use cases, including programmable treasury applications and cross-border payouts, subject to regulatory requirements and Mastercard network rules.