Markets brace for data blackout as US government shutdown drags on 

The US federal government has entered its first shutdown since 2019, halting key services and furloughing hundreds of thousands of workers as Congress fails to agree on funding. Around 750,000 “non-essential” employees have been stood down and another 1.4 million are working without pay, with national parks closed, veterans’ benefits delayed, and public agencies shuttered.

At the centre of the standoff is a deadlock over fiscal 2026 spending bills. A temporary “clean” resolution proposed by House Republicans to keep funding at existing levels until mid-November was rejected by Senate Democrats, who sought to attach a renewal of expiring Affordable Care Act subsidies. Both proposals failed to reach the 60 votes needed in the Senate, extending the impasse and raising the risk of a prolonged disruption.

“The shutdown highlights ongoing partisan divisions in Congress and the executive branch,” says Harun Thilak, Head of Global Capital Markets for North America at Validus Risk Management. “With more cautious customers, organisations that are using AI to take smarter, more creative actions are reducing the pressure to pass on costs to customers.”

The economic toll is already becoming apparent. Validus estimates the shutdown could shave US$15bn from GDP for every week it continues, equivalent to about 0.2 percentage points of annualised growth. Consumer spending is likely to weaken as furloughed workers lose income, while businesses located near government offices face reduced demand. Prolonged disruption could also strain transport and aviation, as unpaid air traffic controllers and safety staff increase the risk of flight delays.

Perhaps the most immediate impact is informational. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has delayed the September jobs report, depriving the Federal Reserve of a key input ahead of its late-October policy meeting. Consumer price data, due on 15 October, could also be postponed, affecting Social Security adjustments and market pricing. Investors currently expect a further 25bp Fed rate cut this month, following a similar move in September, but Thilak warns that “the uncertainty created by this data void could potentially lead to pushback on current market expectations”.

Alec Phillips, Chief US Political Economist, Goldman Sachs Research, told the Goldman Sachs Exchanges podcast that the disruption “could actually be one of the biggest shutdowns we’ve had”. Each week of closure could reduce fourth-quarter annualised GDP by around 0.11 percentage points, he estimates, although growth should rebound once government activity resumes.

The longer the shutdown lasts, the broader the effects could become. Federal contracts, construction projects, and even IPO activity may face delays due to the limited operations of the Securities and Exchange Commission and other agencies.

Despite the potential for disruption, markets have so far remained relatively calm. “I also think it’s probably in part because we’re already in a cutting cycle and the expectation is that without any additional data the Fed is still likely to cut again,” Phillips adds.

Still, the political and economic pressure is mounting. Past shutdowns have tended to end only when the costs outweigh any perceived gains, and while both parties have signalled willingness to compromise, there is little sign yet of a breakthrough. Until then, investors must contend with an economy flying partly blind and a central bank forced to make decisions without its usual instruments.

 

G20 set to fall short of 2027 cross-border payments reform goals

The G20’s flagship roadmap to enhance cross-border payments is unlikely to meet its 2027 deadline, according to the Financial Stability Board (FSB), which says progress has been uneven despite several policy milestones over the past year. In its 2025 consolidated progress report, published jointly with the Bank for International Settlements’ Committee on Payments and Market Infrastructures (CPMI), the FSB acknowledges that while the bulk of roadmap actions have been completed, these have yet to deliver meaningful improvements for end-users globally. The new report merges the annual implementation update with key performance indicators to track outcomes more effectively.

Among the achievements highlighted are new FSB recommendations to level the playing field between bank and non-bank payment service providers, and measures to reduce data-related frictions in international transactions. The Financial Action Task Force has also updated its standards for cross-border payment data under Recommendation 16 on Payment Transparency, aiming to improve compliance and information sharing.

Despite this progress, the FSB says “satisfactory improvements at the global level” remain out of reach within the current timeframe. Wholesale payments have become faster, providing a potential foundation for future gains in retail and remittance flows, but consumer-facing benefits are limited. The report notes that while the speed of remittances has increased, global average costs remain stubbornly high, particularly in more expensive regions.

Significant regional disparities continue to hinder momentum, underscoring the need for local implementation of global reforms. The FSB warns that international policy coordination alone is insufficient to drive meaningful change without complementary steps by individual jurisdictions and private sector actors.

“The FSB and South African G20 Presidency remain committed to achieving the goals of the Roadmap and urge the public and private sectors to make tangible improvements to domestic payment systems, as the first and last mile of a cross-border payment depend on domestic payment rails,” said Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank and co-chair of the FSB Cross-border Payments Coordination Group.

The report calls for both public and private stakeholders to convert international standards into real-world efficiencies, reducing fragmentation across domestic systems and improving access to faster, cheaper and more transparent payments.

Over the next year, the FSB and CPMI will shift focus from policy design to practical implementation. “We are committed to facilitating implementation of agreed policy recommendations and to engage actively with the private sector, G20 and non-G20 jurisdictions to make this happen,” said Fabio Panetta, Governor of the Banca d’Italia, Chair of the CPMI and Co-chair of the coordination group.

The findings suggest that although the global payments ecosystem is more interconnected than ever, turning policy alignment into measurable end-user benefits remains the G20’s toughest test.

 

Banks lag in monetising real-time payments revolution

Most US banks are still missing out on the revenue potential of real-time payments, despite widespread enablement across the industry, according to new research from Cornerstone Advisors. The report, 'Monetizing Faster Payments', commissioned by payments technology firm Matera, finds that while nearly three-quarters of US deposit accounts can technically process instant transfers, 80% of financial institutions remain limited to “receive-only” functionality. Few have yet developed clear strategies to monetise faster payments.

Only 11% of surveyed institutions expect to earn revenue from business-to-business instant payments within three years, while just 6% anticipate monetising retail-focused use cases. That gap represents billions in untapped potential as real-time payment volumes continue to rise across the US.

The study identifies four key areas for growth. QR code–based bill payments could help utilities and service providers reduce card fees by as much as 40% while improving cash flow. Instant payroll and reimbursements offer a path to better employee retention and new fee-based services. Faster B2B supplier payments can replace costly couriers and wire transfers, while real-time sweeps and just-in-time transfers in treasury management could help corporates optimise liquidity.

“Faster payments aren’t just about speed, they’re about solving bigger pain points like cash management, payroll, and supplier payments,” said Ron Shevlin, Chief Research Officer at Cornerstone Advisors and author of the report. “The institutions that move now can turn real-time payments into profitable services instead of treating them as a cost centre.”

The report also highlights sector-specific opportunities across industries such as hospitality, healthcare, and transportation, where immediate settlement and improved cash visibility can deliver measurable business benefits.

Carlos Netto, CEO and Co-founder of Matera, said financial institutions have “a tremendous opportunity to break free from a passive, receive-only approach” by designing services that address real client needs. He added that by doing so, banks could “establish market differentiation” while building sustainable payment revenue models.

 

Investors flee record-high markets as money market funds see surge in inflows

Investors pulled record sums from equity funds in the third quarter, turning instead to safer assets such as money market and bond funds, according to the latest Fund Flow Index from Calastone. Equity funds saw outflows of £3.64bn between July and September, the largest quarterly withdrawal in Calastone’s 11-year history. In September alone, investors redeemed £1.2bn from stock funds, marking a dramatic reversal from last year’s £22.7bn of inflows over the same period. Year-to-date, equity inflows have almost flatlined at just £126m.

The sell-off was broad-based. UK-focused funds saw the heaviest redemptions at £691m, while global, North American, and Asia-Pacific funds all extended their losing streaks. Asia-Pacific funds recorded their 29th consecutive month of outflows, shedding £209m. Only European equity funds bucked the trend, attracting £203m, the fifth consecutive month of inflows, though momentum there is fading.

Edward Glyn, Head of Global Markets at Calastone, said it was “really unusual to see markets reaching record highs while investors are moving decisively for the exits.” He noted that persistent selling across regions suggests widespread anxiety about valuations and the durability of the rally, particularly in US tech stocks linked to the AI boom.

In contrast, fixed income and money market funds were the clear beneficiaries of investor caution. Bond funds attracted £610m in September, primarily into corporate and flexible strategies, while money market funds took in £285m, their safe-haven appeal bolstered by high short-term yields.

“The safe-haven status of money market funds and today’s attractive yields on bonds make them an obvious place for investor cash to flee to when nerves over equity markets abound,” added Glyn.

For corporate treasurers, the shift underscores a renewed appetite for liquidity and low-risk income opportunities after two years of volatile equity performance. With money market funds offering competitive yields and daily access, they continue to serve as an essential component of short-term cash management strategies, particularly in an environment where capital preservation outweighs risk-taking.

Meanwhile, property funds, which had seen stabilising flows earlier in the year, suffered renewed pressure with £85m in outflows, their worst since April, signalling that investors are retreating broadly from illiquid assets amid growing market uncertainty.

 

AI progress and regional gaps set to reshape global credit landscape 

The pace of artificial intelligence (AI) development and uneven access to key resources such as computing power and energy will drive sharp differences in corporate credit performance over the next five years, according to a new analysis from Moody’s. The ratings agency’s latest AI Heatmap outlines two main scenarios shaping its outlook through 2030: a conservative path of gradual AI integration, and an optimistic one in which rapid advances trigger faster productivity gains but also greater disruption. Under the conservative scenario, Moody’s expects incremental efficiency improvements and stronger profit margins across industries, but limited shifts in competitive hierarchies. The optimistic view, by contrast, foresees accelerated innovation that could upend established market leaders and create significant credit divergence between early adopters and laggards.

Moody’s identifies the biggest AI-driven upside in technology suppliers and data-heavy or labour-intensive sectors, including finance, healthcare, insurance, logistics, business process outsourcing, and media. These industries are expected to benefit most from AI’s ability to automate workflows, process large datasets, and scale customer-facing operations.

By contrast, sectors such as utilities, oil and gas, pharmaceuticals, heavy manufacturing, and infrastructure are unlikely to experience significant disruption or material credit gains by 2030, even under rapid AI advancement. Their long investment horizons and slow innovation cycles limit how quickly AI can transform operations or profitability.

Moody’s also highlights growing regional disparities that could define the global AI economy. Countries with cheaper energy, advanced computing infrastructure, and large pools of digital talent are positioned to capture the greatest productivity and credit benefits. Meanwhile, regions with high energy costs, restrictive regulation, or shortages of technical expertise may see slower adoption and weaker competitiveness.

For corporate treasurers, the findings underscore how AI’s credit implications will depend not only on sector exposure but also on geography. As investment accelerates in automation and data analytics, firms that operate in digitally advanced markets, or successfully integrate AI into cash, liquidity, and risk management functions, may enjoy stronger credit profiles and improved access to financing.

 

Eurogrid raises €1.1bn in Germany’s first EU-standard green bond

Eurogrid GmbH, parent company of transmission system operator 50Hertz, has raised €1.1bn through the first German green bond to comply with the European Union’s new Green Bond Standard (EUGBS). The issuance marks a milestone in sustainable finance and provides fresh capital for critical grid expansion projects supporting the country’s energy transition.

The dual-tranche bond includes a €500m four-year note at 2.886% and a €600m 15-year note at 4.165%. Investor demand was strong, with the issue more than four times oversubscribed and peak orders exceeding €7bn, indicating sustained appetite for credible green assets.

Funds raised will be directed towards onshore and offshore infrastructure projects that integrate renewable energy into the grid. These initiatives form part of Eurogrid’s Green Financing Framework, which has received an ‘Excellent’ rating from Sustainable Fitch and aligns with the EU Taxonomy and International Capital Market Association (ICMA) Green Bond Principles.

The deal underlines the sustainability strategy of 50Hertz and its parent, Elia Group, which is targeting 100% renewable electricity coverage in its grid area by 2032. Eurogrid said the transaction reinforces its role in financing Europe’s low-carbon transformation and demonstrates investor confidence in the group’s long-term ESG commitments.

Christine Janssen, Chief Financial Officer at 50Hertz, said the issuance “gives a clear signal for the sustainable financing and future viability of our grid infrastructure,” noting that the strong demand reflects market trust in Eurogrid’s transparency and climate-focused approach.

The EU Green Bond Standard introduces uniform requirements for issuers, aiming to increase transparency, comparability and credibility in the green finance market. By adhering to the new framework, Eurogrid joins a select group of European corporates applying the standard in its inaugural year, setting a precedent for future issuances in Germany’s energy and infrastructure sectors.

The transaction was arranged with ING, BNP Paribas, NatWest and Commerzbank acting as active bookrunners, supported by Deutsche Bank and Société Générale as passive bookrunners. Mizuho and Rabobank served as sustainability advisors. Eurogrid said the success of the public offering highlights growing investor demand for sustainable instruments and positions the company as a leading participant in Europe’s green capital markets.

 

Colombia launches Bre-B to transform payments and financial inclusion

Colombia has launched Bre-B, its nationwide instant payment system, marking a major step toward modernising the country’s financial infrastructure and expanding digital inclusion. Following a controlled launch on 23 September, Bre-B entered full-scale operation on 6 October, bringing real-time, 24/7 payments to users across the country.

Modelled on Brazil’s Pix system, Bre-B offers instant interoperability and settlement across participating institutions. More than 30 million Colombians, around 76% of the adult population, have already registered, according to the central bank. Yet only 18% of adults currently have access to credit cards, among the lowest rates in Latin America. Bre-B aims to bridge that gap by allowing users to transfer and pay digitally without relying on traditional banking products.

The system connects previously fragmented transfer services such as Transfiya and EntreCuentas, creating a unified payment rail that also includes new participants like Credibanco and Visionamos. Unlike Brazil’s single-infrastructure model, Colombia’s platform builds on existing systems while maintaining interoperability standards.

Bre-B’s design includes a centralised directory (DICE), which maps all registered users, and an Operational Settlement Mechanism (MOL) that enables funds to move instantly between accounts at the central bank, reducing interbank credit risk and payment delays.

Currently supporting person-to-person and consumer-to-merchant payments, the system will later expand to government transactions and bulk payments such as payroll and subsidies. By linking to Colombia’s Family Compensation Funds, Bre-B is also expected to help extend digital financial access to millions of lower-income households.

“Many of these people had to withdraw cash from ATMs to buy things because they were traditionally excluded from the financial system. Now they have a digital payment option that lets them shop online, pay for services, and tap into the digital economy in ways that were not possible before,” said Hernando Rubio, CEO of MOVii, one of Bre-B’s implementation partners.

Fintech firm Ebanx, working with MOVii, is enabling international merchants to accept Bre-B payments through a single integration. The collaboration reflects how the new system could open Colombia’s rapidly growing digital economy, projected to reach US$73bn by 2028, to both domestic and global commerce.

 

SAP integrates AI, data and applications in expanded business suite

SAP has expanded its Business Suite, integrating artificial intelligence, data and enterprise applications in an effort to help companies streamline operations and improve decision-making. At the centre of the update is Joule, SAP’s AI engine, which now includes a network of role-aware assistants designed to support employees in specific business functions. Each assistant draws on real-time data and coordinates specialised “Joule Agents” to manage complex workflows. For example, a People Manager Assistant can flag compensation anomalies, while a Financial Planning Assistant uses a Cash Management Agent to optimise liquidity and manage interest yields.

SAP says these assistants are designed not only to support departmental tasks but also to work across business functions to help resolve broader operational challenges. Supporting this, SAP Business Data Cloud (BDC) Connect introduces secure links between SAP systems and partner platforms, reducing data silos and enabling a bidirectional flow of information. The tool uses “zero-copy sharing,” allowing data to remain within SAP systems while being accessible to connected platforms such as Databricks and Google Cloud for faster analytics and AI deployment.

In supply chain management, SAP Supply Chain Orchestration adds machine-learning features that use a live knowledge graph to identify supplier risks in real time and coordinate responses. SAP Engagement Cloud and the latest SAP Ariba suite apply similar automation and analytics capabilities to customer and supplier management.

Taken together, the updates represent SAP’s latest effort to create an integrated ecosystem of enterprise tools designed to improve data accessibility and operational agility across global businesses.

 

Traydstream and CGI join forces to automate trade finance workflows

Traydstream has partnered with CGI to integrate its AI-powered trade document processing platform directly into CGI Trade360, the company’s global trade finance solution. The collaboration aims to simplify and automate trade operations for banks and financial institutions by embedding intelligent document checking and compliance tools within existing workflows.

The integration will allow CGI Trade360 users to access Traydstream’s document scrutiny and compliance modules without leaving the Trade360 environment. Trade documents will be automatically reviewed for missing data, formatting issues, and discrepancies, while real-time screening against sanctions lists and trade regulations will ensure faster, more secure processing.

According to Sameer Sehgal, CEO at Traydstream, embedding the platform natively into Trade360 will “enable banks and financial institutions to unlock new levels of efficiency, accuracy, and compliance,” helping automation become “accessible where it matters most - within the core systems our clients already use.”

By reducing manual data re-entry and accelerating document examination, the integration is designed to enhance operational efficiency, minimise errors, and improve transparency. All actions are recorded to support governance and audit requirements.

The partnership highlights both companies’ broader goal of advancing digital transformation across trade finance, where automation and compliance pressures continue to reshape operational models. Through this collaboration, banks will gain a more seamless way to manage trade transactions from document verification to regulatory checks within a single digital ecosystem.

 

LSEG launches cloud-based compliance tool for real-time payments

LSEG Risk Intelligence has introduced World-Check Verify, a cloud-native screening API powered by Amazon Web Services (AWS) that embeds compliance directly into payment and onboarding processes. The platform is designed to deliver instant, secure checks without slowing transaction speeds, helping financial institutions adapt to the demands of instant payments and embedded finance.

Built for large-scale, low-latency screening, World-Check Verify provides a lightweight and resilient solution capable of operating across high-volume digital payment environments. The system safeguards data sovereignty through a secure, scalable cloud architecture while maintaining continuous availability for enterprise and cross-border needs.

The launch follows findings from LSEG’s 2025 Global Risk Intelligence Survey, which shows that 77% of financial institutions identify manual review workloads as a key barrier to compliance and 75% report excessive false positives from legacy systems. Nearly all respondents (98%) say real-time data is now critical to their compliance workflows.

World-Check Verify addresses these challenges by offering embedded, low-latency screening within existing payment and onboarding workflows. It provides flexible integration options and advanced configuration tools to align with internal policies, reducing operational burden and improving precision.

By combining LSEG’s World-Check data with AWS’s cloud infrastructure, the new platform delivers the speed, accuracy, and resilience required for today’s real-time financial ecosystem. Financial institutions can screen transactions, verify new customers, and monitor ongoing activity instantly, ensuring compliance remains seamless and secure within day-to-day operations.

 

Worldpay partners with East West Bank to expand payment access

Worldpay and East West Bank have announced a partnership to broaden access to advanced payment solutions for the bank’s commercial and business clients. The agreement extends Worldpay’s US distribution network and gives East West Bank customers access to a suite of modern payment tools spanning point-of-sale, eCommerce, omnichannel, and loyalty solutions.

The collaboration is designed to help businesses operate more efficiently and compete more effectively in the digital economy by offering seamless payment options both in-store and online. Through the partnership, East West Bank will refer its business and commercial clients to Worldpay for integrated payment services and value-added tools that can support growth and improve cash flow management.

Worldpay’s platform enables merchants to handle payments across multiple channels, providing flexibility for companies of all sizes. The partnership also aims to introduce emerging payment technologies that enhance customer experience, streamline operations, and strengthen financial control.

East West Bank’s clients, which range from small businesses to large corporates with international operations, will benefit from access to Worldpay’s global scale and technical capabilities in payment processing. The collaboration reflects both institutions’ commitment to helping businesses adapt to fast-changing commerce trends by integrating secure, data-driven payment solutions that support sustainable growth.

The long-term partnership positions East West Bank to offer a more comprehensive treasury and payments proposition, while expanding Worldpay’s footprint among commercial clients in the US market.

 

Solidgate Treasury connects directly to Swift for faster global payments

Solidgate Treasury has joined the Swift network, enabling businesses to transfer funds internationally with greater speed, security, and efficiency. Through direct integration with the world’s leading financial messaging system, customers can now send and receive payments in multiple currencies without relying on intermediary banks, reducing both costs and delays.

The integration allows businesses to open and manage accounts in USD, GBP, and EUR directly through the Solidgate Treasury platform. Users can make international transfers to and from thousands of financial institutions across 195 countries, all within a single interface. The direct Swift connection also supports faster processing, with same-day settlement available for eligible transactions.

By connecting to Swift, Solidgate Treasury simplifies international expansion for online and cross-border businesses. The system’s global reach and reduced touchpoints help firms operate more efficiently, while maintaining the same visibility and control as domestic transfers.

All payments processed via Swift are fully encrypted, authenticated, and traceable from end to end, offering the same enterprise-grade security relied upon by more than 11,000 financial institutions worldwide.