US businesses are facing rising costs, late supplier payments and a growing risk of fraud as they scramble to manage the fallout from trade tariffs, according to new research. Creditsafe’s report Tariff Risks in the Supply Chain finds firms are stockpiling inventory, pausing imports and shifting supply chains in anticipation of further disruption, yet many still lack tariff-specific financial planning.

The findings are based on a survey of more than 200 finance, procurement and supply chain professionals. The report from Creditsafe highlights how new tariffs on imports from China, Mexico, Canada, the UK and several European countries are reshaping supply chain behaviour and financial risk management.

Businesses largely oppose tariff policy

The headline finding from Creditsafe’s research is that 58% of US businesses oppose the administration’s tariff strategy, underscoring its unpopularity among import-dependent firms. The top concern, cited by 44% of respondents, is the higher cost of materials and equipment. Another 15% worry tariffs will lead to reduced demand for their goods and services, while 17% point to supply chain disruption as their biggest issue. Within that group, 9% highlight the risk of delays, 5% fear lower shipment volumes and 3% expect higher freight rates.

These findings suggest that businesses see tariffs as not only a pricing issue but also a trigger for wider operational disruption. The reluctance of many firms to pass tariff costs on to customers, or to cut back on imports, suggests managers are being forced to make difficult choices about margins, supply chain resilience and customer relationships.

Imports already under pressure

The survey indicates that tariffs are reshaping US trade patterns. Thirty-seven percent of firms plan to cut imports from China, compared with 25% intending to increase them. Similarly, 28% expect to import fewer goods from Canada, with 23% expecting to increase imports, and 28% plan to reduce imports from Mexico, with another 23% expecting an increase.

More broadly, 72% of businesses say they have imports currently on hold due to tariff uncertainty. This represents a significant operational pause that could affect inventory levels, supplier contracts and customer delivery schedules. 

Such delays carry obvious financial consequences, including lost sales if customer demand cannot be met, pressure on working capital as orders are rescheduled and increased administrative burden as businesses renegotiate with suppliers.

Rising fears of global recession

A striking 84% of businesses believe tariffs increase the risk of a global recession in 2025. This fear reflects not only concern about direct costs but also the wider economic impact of disrupted trade flows and higher input prices.

Companies responding to the Creditsafe survey appear to be factoring this risk into their operational decisions. Some are accelerating orders ahead of tariffs, others are pausing imports entirely, and many are looking for alternative suppliers. The common theme is uncertainty, with most businesses choosing to act cautiously while the policy landscape remains fluid.

Fraud risk and tariff dodging

The survey highlights a second-order effect of tariffs: the potential for increased trade fraud. Seventy-three percent of respondents expect higher import duties to drive a rise in forged documents, mislabelled goods or duplicate payments.

Examples of “tariff dodging” highlighted in the research include undervaluing products to reduce tariff exposure, misclassifying materials to take advantage of lower tariff rates, falsifying the country of origin by routing goods through countries with lower tariffs, and intentionally using incorrect tariff codes to minimise import duties. 

In response, 47% of businesses plan to tighten supplier verification processes over the next 12 months, including greater use of business credit reports and closer scrutiny of shipping documentation. For corporate treasurers and CFOs, this highlights an urgent need to review risk controls, both to avoid regulatory penalties and to maintain integrity in the supply chain.

Supplier relationships under strain

Tariffs are also testing supplier-customer relationships. The survey finds that 53% of businesses plan to look for alternative suppliers in other countries, often as a direct result of tariff exposure.

Cash flow pressures are already apparent. Fifty-one percent of respondents say tariffs have resulted in delayed payments to suppliers, with 27% paying slightly later than usual and 24% paying significantly later. More than half, 55%, say they are paying suppliers up to 30 days late. Confidence among suppliers is also low, with only 19% of businesses very confident their customers will pay on time in the current tariff environment, while 31% are only “somewhat confident” and 12% have “no confidence at all.”

For suppliers, these late payments create a domino effect, making it harder to pay employees, meet their own supplier obligations and fulfil customer orders on time.

Inventory hoarding and working capital

One immediate behavioural shift is inventory management. Forty-eight percent of businesses have increased inventory purchases to shield themselves from tariff-driven price rises. Within this group, 34% have increased inventory by up to 25% and another 11% have increased it by 26-50%.

While this “just in case” stockpiling strategy can help buffer near-term disruption, it also ties up capital and increases carrying costs such as storage, insurance and tax. If tariffs are delayed or withdrawn, firms could be left holding excess stock, effectively turning tariff risk into inventory risk.

Passing on costs or absorbing them?

How are companies managing tariff-driven cost increases? According to the survey, 49% are absorbing at least some tariff costs themselves, including 27% absorbing up to half of the increased costs and 22% absorbing most of them. Fourteen percent are passing all tariff costs on to customers, while 16% are fully absorbing costs on their own balance sheets.

These choices have immediate implications for margins and customer relationships. Passing on costs risks losing business; absorbing them risks eroding profitability. Interestingly, 40% of businesses say no customers have cancelled orders or paused contracts since tariffs took effect, suggesting that many customers are prioritising continuity of supply despite higher prices.

Even as firms manage higher costs, many are attempting to maintain supplier relationships. Seventy percent say they have no plans to delay payments to international suppliers for shipment delays or customs clearance issues. At the same time, 48% are offering extended payment terms to their own customers to retain business during tariff uncertainty.

However, 30% of firms will intentionally delay payments to suppliers in the event of logistics issues, adding another layer of strain to global supply chains.

Financial planning gap

Despite the widespread anxiety, 55% of businesses admit they have not integrated tariff considerations into their annual financial planning, and only 8% treat tariff planning as a high priority. This planning gap leaves businesses exposed to shocks, as sudden tariff hikes can hit cash flow, inventory strategy and procurement costs.

For treasurers and CFOs, this is a clear warning sign. Proactive scenario modelling, even when policy is uncertain, is increasingly vital to prepare for multiple tariff scenarios and avoid being caught off guard.

The Creditsafe survey paints a picture of firms navigating tariff risk with mixed strategies. Many are pausing imports, shifting suppliers, building inventory, adjusting payment terms and absorbing costs where they can. But significant blind spots remain, particularly in financial planning and fraud prevention.

The findings highlight the importance of reviewing supplier exposure and payment policies, tightening fraud controls, balancing inventory strategy with working capital and incorporating tariff sensitivity into financial models. The research shows tariffs are not just a trade policy issue; they are reshaping how businesses manage cash, suppliers and risk. Even with tariff plans paused temporarily, uncertainty is already driving structural changes to supply chains and financial operations.