Treasurers weigh AI forecasting as trust concerns persist

Almost half of corporate treasury teams are evaluating artificial intelligence (AI), but only 4% have AI processes in production, according to research from EuroFinance supported by Treasury Intelligence Solutions (TIS).

Some 46% of respondents are actively assessing AI solutions, more than any other emerging technology. Yet 47% understand the potential use of AI in cash forecasting and have no immediate plans to adopt it, reflecting persistent concerns over data quality, legacy-system integration and trust in model outputs.

Cash flow forecasting was identified as the most suitable treasury use case by 38% of respondents. Looking ahead, 16% expect AI to become mission-critical within 24 months, while 43% believe it will be important but complementary to existing processes. Only 7% are not considering the technology at all.

Data quality appears to be the dividing line between interest and implementation. More than half of treasurers identified it as the biggest drag on forecast accuracy, while the research also highlighted difficulties integrating legacy systems and understanding how AI-generated results are produced.

In the report, Robert McAnally, senior vice-president and head of treasury and corporate finance at Siemens Energy, said: “You cannot ignore the data and assumptions behind AI-driven models.”

Siemens Energy has begun using machine learning and AI in cash forecasting, but confidence in the results depends on understanding how models are built and which macroeconomic assumptions shape their output. That becomes particularly important when geopolitical events break the historical relationships on which forecasts rely.

Elsewhere, Khaloud Alhammadi, director of treasury at Abu Dhabi Ports, noted: “Traditional models relied on historical data, stable customer behaviour and predictable payment terms.” When those assumptions stopped holding, forecast accuracy deteriorated quickly, even where the underlying technology remained sound.

AI proved most useful at Abu Dhabi Ports as a decision-support tool, sharpening the company’s view of short and medium-term cash flows, working capital and liquidity buffers. It also exposed weaknesses in data, governance, and forecasting assumptions, rather than automatically resolving them.

Perspectives from treasury leaders at Microsoft, Creative Artists Agency, Ultragenyx and Cloud Software Group pointed in the same direction. AI can identify patterns, challenge assumptions and help teams react faster in volatile conditions, but human judgement remains central when forecasts influence funding, liquidity, capital allocation and risk decisions.

Charles Bennett, chief product officer at TIS, said: “The treasurers who will lead in the years ahead are those who treat AI as a catalyst for better decision-making, and not merely as a tool for reducing manual work.”

Near-term adoption is therefore likely to remain gradual. AI will sit alongside existing forecasting processes while companies improve data quality, governance and model oversight. Finance teams that can explain the inputs, limits and assumptions behind an AI forecast will be better placed to use it in material funding and liquidity decisions.

The research suggests the technology’s immediate value lies in making weaknesses visible. As data foundations strengthen, AI may move from a diagnostic and decision-support role towards a more influential place in cash forecasting, but trust will depend on whether treasury can still challenge the answer.

 

Goldman expects Fed to hold rates through 2026

Goldman Sachs Research expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged for the rest of 2026, despite bond markets assigning a 55% probability to a September increase.

At its latest meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee held rates steady after markets had shown the greatest uncertainty in three decades over whether policymakers would tighten. David Mericle, chief US economist at Goldman Sachs Research, described the outcome as “somewhat anticlimactic”, with the committee offering no guidance on the future direction of rates or interpretation of recent inflation data.

“We had expected that most FOMC voters would not want to hike because the June inflation data showed substantial improvement relative to prior months,” Mericle wrote.

Goldman interpreted comments from Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh’s post-meeting press conference as dovish. Warsh appeared to play down price pressures linked to artificial intelligence, treating them as isolated from broader inflation trends. Asked whether higher real interest rates showed that markets expected further tightening, he linked the move to recent economic strength.

Warsh also appeared to leave open the possibility that higher market rates could do some of the Fed’s work by restraining financial conditions. A stronger commitment to the inflation target, he suggested, might lower inflation expectations and reduce price pressure without another policy-rate increase.

Mericle was sceptical of that mechanism. “This contrasts with our reading of the evidence from economic research, which suggests that it is difficult for the Fed to influence inflation through the expectations channel,” he wrote, arguing that many businesses and consumers are less attentive to central bank signals.

Bond markets nevertheless took the meeting as dovish. Near-term rates fell despite higher energy prices, while longer-term yields rose during the meeting. As of 29 July, markets still priced a 55% chance of a September hike.

Funding plans, hedge ratios, and cash investment decisions will be shaped by whether short-term rates remain elevated or rise further. A prolonged hold would preserve current borrowing costs and returns on surplus cash, while uncertainty around each inflation release could continue to affect debt pricing, refinancing windows and interest-rate hedging.

Treasurers may also face a widening gap between policy rates and market borrowing costs.

Goldman expects softer core inflation over the coming months to keep the Fed on hold throughout 2026. Incoming data will determine whether that view holds as renewed energy costs and resilient demand threaten to revive pressure for another increase.

 

BIS warns debt and hedge funds amplify global risks

The Bank for International Settlements has warned that stretched public finances, leveraged hedge funds, renewed inflation and uncertainty over the AI investment boom could threaten growth and financial stability.

Its Annual Economic Report 2026 argues that near-record public debt and the growing role of non-bank investors have created a new nexus between sovereigns and financial stability. Heavy hedge fund involvement in government bond markets could amplify repricing, tighten financial conditions and force central banks to respond to market stress.

Frank Smets, acting head of the BIS Monetary and Economic Department, said: “The new fiscal-financial stability nexus may mean more frequent and sharper drops in sovereign bond values.” Such moves, he added, could weigh on demand, complicate monetary policy and prompt central-bank intervention with consequences for market and fiscal discipline.

Pressure has increased after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted energy and raw-material supplies. Although oil prices have since fallen and geopolitical tensions have eased, the BIS said the effects could persist through inflation, shipping costs and supply chains.

Inflation is one of four pressure points identified in the report. Repeated supply shocks could cause expectations to become unanchored, leaving price growth elevated even after energy flows normalise.

AI investment presents a second risk. Spending on data centres, chips and related infrastructure has supported activity and favourable financial conditions, but bottlenecks and competition for market leadership could encourage over-investment. Greater use of leverage across the AI supply chain would increase the financial consequences of any correction.

Fragile liquidity in sovereign bond markets forms a third concern, particularly where high valuations and investor complacency meet leveraged trading strategies. Public debt is the fourth, with higher interest costs reducing governments’ capacity to respond to recessions or financial shocks.

Several of these risks feed directly into corporate funding and liquidity. Bond-market volatility can raise borrowing costs and disrupt refinancing windows, while renewed inflation may affect pricing, working capital and hedge strategies. AI investment plans may also need tougher stress testing if supply constraints, financing costs or weaker returns challenge current assumptions.

Pablo Hernández de Cos, BIS general manager, said policy actions must reinforce each other, adding: “Policymakers must act now. Delay will only make the necessary adjustments more costly and increase the chance of difficult trade-offs in the future.”

Price stability, sustainable public finances, stronger oversight beyond banks and structural reforms should all be priorities, the BIS said, arguing that discipline in one policy area gives others more room to respond.

 

CFO risk concern falls despite widespread financial impact

Kyriba has warned of a widening gap between CFO confidence and actual risk exposure, after research found that 79% of finance leaders suffered a financial impact from inadequate risk visibility over the past year.

The CFO Risk Radar 2026 surveyed 1,354 CFOs and senior finance leaders. Although four in five respondents were affected, concern across 12 risk categories fell by an average of 13 percentage points year on year.

Only 47% of CFOs said they felt highly prepared to manage financial risk, creating a 32 percentage point gap between perceived readiness and the proportion that experienced financial impact. Just 39.3% expected a high level of impact from risks they already knew about, suggesting that even visible exposures are being underestimated.

Among those affected by weak risk visibility, 14.8% reported a significant financial impact, 43.3% a moderate impact and 21.2% a minor impact. Only one in five escaped without financial consequences.

Inflation and the cost of living remained the leading global concern at 76.4%, despite falling by five percentage points. AI disruption entered the ranking at 52%, while 55.2% expected it to cause financial disruption, leaving anticipated exposure ahead of stated concern.

Country-level findings pointed to sharper local risks. Political instability ranked first in Spain at 80% and France at 72%, while tariffs were a concern for 83.2% of CFOs in Mexico.

Confidence in the wider outlook also softened. Some 70.8% of respondents were positive about the economy, down 4.8 percentage points from 75.6% a year earlier. Business optimism fell by 5.4 points to 73.8%, from 79.2%.

Treasury teams will recognise the cost of confusing familiarity with control. Persistent risks can become embedded in planning assumptions without becoming easier to manage, particularly when cash, liquidity, and market exposures are spread across systems, entities, and geographies.

The readiness gap also raises questions about forecasting and contingency planning. If known risks are expected to have only a limited impact, liquidity buffers, hedge positions and funding plans may prove inadequate when conditions deteriorate, or several shocks arrive together.

Kyriba said the research points to visibility as the variable finance teams can influence most directly. More reliable data, clearer exposure mapping and stronger scenario analysis could help CFOs judge whether declining concern reflects genuine resilience or simple adaptation to a riskier environment.

 

Citi links invoice processing with supply chain finance

Citi has launched a digital invoice-processing service that links purchase orders, invoices, transport documents and financing across the buyer-supplier chain.

Built with Infor Nexus, the service is intended to replace fragmented manual workflows that can delay invoice approval and leave suppliers waiting for access to finance. It is initially available to Citi clients in the US and Canada, with expansion to other markets planned during 2026.

Buyers can use a shared repository for purchase orders, invoices and transport documentation, supported by automated matching, approval and discrepancy-resolution processes. Faster approval should give finance teams a clearer view of committed payments and reduce the time between invoice submission and financing eligibility.

Suppliers gain visibility into invoice and payment status, along with access to financing options, including purchase order finance, deep-tier finance, and dynamic discounting. Citi has also begun acting as a financing service provider to Infor Nexus clients in the US, allowing eligible users to access financing without having to switch between platforms.

Invoice delays remain a working capital problem on both sides of a transaction. Buyers may lack reliable data on approved liabilities, while suppliers can be forced to fund production, inventory and transport for longer than expected. Linking operational documents with financial processes could shorten that gap, provided the underlying data is accurate, and exceptions can be resolved efficiently.

Cash visibility is another practical consideration. Earlier confirmation of approved invoices can improve payment forecasting, while suppliers may be able to bring forward liquidity against verified obligations. Buyers could also gain a clearer view of supplier stress where access to finance depends on approval timing.

Broader industry efforts are increasingly connecting supply chain data more directly with financing decisions and payment execution.

Implementation still carries demands. Companies will need consistent purchase order and invoice data, clear approval ownership and integration with ERP, accounts payable and treasury systems. Automation will have limited value if discrepancies still require lengthy manual investigation.

Wider adoption will depend on how quickly Citi expands the service beyond North America and whether corporates can connect it to existing supply chain and finance processes without adding another layer of operational complexity.

 

Lloyds tests tokenised deposits in live cross-border payments

Lloyds Banking Group has completed three live tokenised deposit transactions through Project Agorá, testing how commercial bank money could support wholesale payments across sterling, euros and Swiss francs.

One transaction linked foreign exchange conversion, payment and settlement in a single flow. Lloyds’ Corporate Markets business converted Swiss francs into sterling, with Lloyds Bank providing settlement, enabling each stage to occur simultaneously rather than across separate systems.

Two further transactions involved Lloyds acting as a customer bank in Swiss franc and euro payments using tokenised deposits. The tests explored how digital representations of commercial bank deposits could be exchanged across currencies within the regulated banking system.

Cross-border wholesale payments often pass through several institutions, with currency conversion, payment messaging and settlement handled separately. Joining those steps could reduce timing gaps, improve transparency and lower settlement risk, although adoption will depend on interoperability, liquidity arrangements and integration with existing systems.

Peter Left, head of digital and markets innovation at Lloyds Banking Group, said moving “from prototypes to live transactions” had provided practical insight into how tokenised deposits could “help reduce friction and settlement risk in wholesale payments”.

Project Agorá is convened by the Bank for International Settlements and the Institute of International Finance. Eight central banks and more than 40 private-sector financial institutions are examining how tokenised central bank reserves and commercial bank deposits could operate on a shared programmable platform.

Corporate treasurers will watch whether such models can support faster cross-border liquidity movement, tighter coordination between FX and settlement and clearer transaction status. Wider value will depend on currency coverage, bank participation, legal certainty and whether tokenised flows can be reconciled through treasury management and ERP processes.

 

Same Day ACH volume jumps nearly 30% in Q2

Same Day ACH volume jumped 29.5% in the second quarter of 2026, helping drive broader growth across the US ACH Network as businesses increased their use of faster bank payments.

During the quarter, the network processed 435.7 million Same Day ACH payments worth $1.3 trillion. Payment value rose 28.1% year on year, while overall ACH Network volume reached 9.3 billion transactions valued at $25.9 trillion, increases of 6.2% and 11.1% respectively.

Business-to-business payments were another major source of growth. B2B volume increased 9.9% to 2.2 billion payments in the second quarter, bringing the first-half total to 4.3 billion, up 10.3% from the same period last year.

In the first six months of 2026, the ACH Network processed 18.2 billion payments totalling almost $50 trillion. Volume grew 5.5% and value increased 10.2%. Same Day ACH accounted for 838.7 million payments valued at nearly $2.4 trillion, representing rises of 26.6% and 27%.

Jane Larimer, president and chief executive officer of Nacha, said: “In 2027, the dollar limit will increase to $10 million, further strengthening Same Day ACH’s position in the market as a compelling faster payment method.”

Raising the limit could widen the range of corporate payments suitable for same-day processing, particularly larger supplier payments, urgent funding movements and time-sensitive settlement obligations. Treasury teams may also gain more flexibility when managing intraday liquidity or responding to late payment approvals.

Adoption will still depend on bank availability, cut-off times, controls and payment policy, but the latest figures show Same Day ACH becoming a more important part of US B2B payment infrastructure.

 

Mastercard completes BVNK acquisition for stablecoin expansion

Mastercard has completed its acquisition of BVNK, adding stablecoin and on-chain payment infrastructure to its wider network of fiat and digital currency services.

BVNK provides technology that enables businesses, financial institutions, and fintechs to hold, move, manage, and convert value across fiat currencies and digital assets. Mastercard said the deal will support use cases including cross-border B2B payments, remittances, payouts, settlement and treasury flows.

The acquisition reflects growing interest in infrastructure that connects conventional payment rails with stablecoins, tokenised deposits, and other digital forms of money. For corporate users, the potential value lies in faster settlement, broader payment options, and more flexible cross-border liquidity movement.

Practical adoption will depend on how easily stablecoin transactions can be integrated with existing treasury, accounting, reconciliation and compliance processes. Companies will also need clear controls over counterparty risk, wallet access, sanctions screening, accounting treatment and the conversion between digital assets and bank money.

Mastercard’s strategy is focused on interoperability between different forms of value rather than replacing established payment methods. Combining BVNK’s on-chain technology with Mastercard’s network could give banks and enterprises another route to use stablecoins within regulated payment and treasury workflows.

 

Change and Finix embed payouts for corporate giving

Change and Finix have developed an embedded payout process for corporate giving programmes, allowing businesses to route donations to almost 10,000 US nonprofits through a branded payments experience.

Change provides the compliance and operational infrastructure behind charitable campaigns, including nonprofit verification, state registrations, donation processing and reporting. Finix supplies the white-labelled payout technology used to onboard recipient bank accounts and distribute funds.

Around 10,000 nonprofits have been onboarded and paid through the platform. Bank accounts are typically verified within 24 hours, while Change reported no Finix-related support enquiries from nonprofit users over the past year.

Corporate giving schemes can create more operational complexity than the customer-facing experience suggests. Businesses must verify recipients, meet state-level requirements, maintain reporting records and ensure donations reach the intended organisation. Payment recognition also matters because many nonprofits may receive funds without having dealt directly with the platform beforehand.

To reduce confusion, statement descriptors show “Our Change Foundation”, helping recipients identify incoming payments. The infrastructure operates behind Change’s brand rather than requiring charities to move into a separate provider environment.

For finance teams, embedded payouts can reduce the administrative burden attached to donation programmes and give businesses clearer control over disbursement, reconciliation and audit records. Faster onboarding may also help campaigns move funds more quickly during periods of high transaction volume.

The arrangement shows embedded payments moving into corporate social responsibility workflows. Its value will depend on whether businesses can combine a smooth customer experience with reliable compliance, transparent records and consistent payment delivery to nonprofit recipients.

 

Air Selangor prices world’s first blue sukuk

Air Selangor has priced a RM200m, 15-year blue sukuk that it describes as the world’s first and Malaysia’s first blue bond or sukuk issuance.

The transaction will be issued under the Malaysian water utility’s RM20bn Islamic Medium Term Notes Programme. Proceeds are intended to support projects linked to sustainable water and wastewater management, resource protection, long-term water security and climate resilience.

Blue finance directs capital towards the protection, restoration and efficient use of water resources and related ecosystems. Air Selangor said the issuance supports its work towards the UN Sustainable Development Goal on clean water and sanitation.

CIMB Investment Bank acted as the sole sustainability structuring adviser and the sole lead manager. The sukuk was structured under version 2.0 of Air Selangor’s Sustainable Development Sukuk Kelestarian Framework.

Revisions to the framework introduce blue sukuk as an eligible financing instrument and expand the number of eligible project categories from four to eight. Additional areas include climate adaptation, energy efficiency, clean transportation and social initiatives.

The framework aligns with the International Capital Market Association’s 2025 Green Bond Principles, 2025 Social Bond Principles, and 2021 Sustainability Bond Guidelines. It also incorporates the International Finance Corporation’s Guidelines for Blue Finance version 2.0.

RAM Sustainability issued a preliminary assessment stating that the framework’s eligible blue projects meet the IFC guidelines.

For investors, the deal adds a long-dated instrument focused specifically on water infrastructure to Malaysia’s sustainable debt market. Its significance will depend on the allocation of proceeds and the reporting of measurable environmental outcomes over the sukuk’s 15-year life.

 

Aviva Investors tokenises liquidity fund share class

Aviva Investors has launched its first tokenised fund share class, making a US dollar liquidity strategy available to eligible investors through the XRP Ledger.

The share class forms part of the Aviva Investors US Dollar Liquidity Fund, which invests in high-grade short-term US dollar debt and targets low-risk returns with daily liquidity. Investors using the tokenised format will retain the same investment objective, risk profile, liquidity characteristics and regulatory protections as holders of the conventional fund.

Access will be available to eligible investors with digital wallets. The fund’s underlying assets will continue to be held by custodian BNY, while Komainu provides institutional digital asset custody and Licuido supplies the tokenisation infrastructure.

The Central Bank of Ireland has approved the share class, which Aviva Investors described as a regulatory first for tokenised fund structures.

For treasury and institutional investors, tokenisation could eventually improve fund distribution, transaction processing and integration with digital settlement infrastructure. Practical use will depend on wallet governance, custody arrangements, accounting treatment and how easily tokenised holdings connect with existing cash and investment systems.

 

Corpay adds virtual card controls for AI agents

Corpay has introduced a virtual card capability designed to let AI agents initiate business payments within predefined controls.

Supporting both user-directed agent activity and machine-to-machine transactions, the service combines authentication, authorisation of spending intent and open connectivity standards. AI platforms can therefore create payments on a company’s behalf without bypassing existing governance or requiring a separate payment environment.

Potential applications include supplier payments, digital advertising, travel bookings and procurement. Virtual cards can be issued for a specific purpose, amount or transaction window, giving finance teams a way to automate spending while retaining limits, visibility and security controls.

Growing interest in agentic commerce is pushing software agents beyond simple recommendations into direct action within business workflows. Treasury and finance functions will focus on whether those payments remain auditable and can be reconciled with procurement, expense and accounting systems.

Corpay said the capability is intended to work with leading AI agent platforms, allowing companies to choose tools that fit their processes while maintaining payment controls. It follows the addition of an AI virtual assistant to the Corpay Complete platform in April.

Adoption will depend on how clearly companies define agent permissions, approval thresholds and exception handling. Strong controls will also be needed for supplier validation, fraud monitoring, and the circumstances under which an agent is allowed to create or release a payment.

 

Embat adds banking services to treasury platform

Embat has launched a banking product that brings cash management, international payments, collections, FX hedging and account reconciliation into its treasury platform.

The service is aimed at mid-market companies operating across multiple countries, where opening accounts, connecting banks to ERP systems and managing foreign exchange can create delays and additional cost.

Users can open local IBANs in 22 countries through a digital know-your-customer process. Transactions are automatically integrated with leading ERP systems, while customers can hedge exposures in more than 60 currencies.

Embat said the product is supported by its own AI tools and TellMe, its agentic AI assistant. Combining banking and treasury functions into a single workflow could give finance teams a more consistent view of cash, payments, and currency risk, while reducing manual reconciliation across separate systems.

Practical value will depend on bank coverage, account functionality, pricing and how reliably the platform connects with existing finance infrastructure. Companies will also need clear controls over payment permissions, user access and the use of AI within operational processes.

Álvaro Dexeus has been appointed director of global banking to lead the division. He joins from Pleo and has previously held roles at Deliveroo, L'Oréal, Zipcar, Société Générale, Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank.