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Trust Index benchmarks form Thomson Reuters launched. Will this replace CDS as indication of counter

When Thomson Reuters introduced (at the beginning of May) their Trust Index benchmark their opening paragraphs on their web-site went as follows :

'Trust. Where does it come from and how is it measured? What is its value – and how is that earned or lost? Over the past five years, the financial industry has looked in the mirror of public perception for those answers. Today, we offer a wider lens. Data-driven and analytically tested. For a market based on trust, a series of benchmarks built on facts, drawn from Thomson Reuters data, news and analytics capabilities. The TRust Index.

At Thomson Reuters we believe information is powerful and enables insight, decision-making and progress. In the TRust Index metrics that follow, we offer an array of measures that align to the state of trust in the global financial community today. We will publish and expand upon them quarterly and believe they are the beginning of a dialogue among the sector's key constituents.'

The Thomson Reuters TRust Index, is a comprehensive fact-based and data-driven series of quarterly proprietary benchmarks built on Thomson Reuters data, news, and analytics capabilities in support of our vision to connect and enable the global financial community.

TRust Index key findings for Q1 2013 include:

  • Media Sentiment: Thomson Reuters news and social media sentiment analysis reveals, after several years of decline since the Fall of 2008, a Q1 2013 rebound in trust sentiment for the top 50 global financials with an overall improvement in the economy, markets and bank profitability - the first time this data has trended so positively in several years.
  • Confidence of the marketplace: The analyst community's Q1 estimates for financials led all other sectors, seemingly validated by strong Q1 reporting for many financial institutions. The confidence the analyst community has in the sector's prospects extends to the 5-year outlook, and while there might be intermediate weaker quarters or periods, the long-term view continues to outpace every other sector. Interestingly, this first TRust Index analysis reveals the market itself is lagging the improved analyst view, discounting the sector relative to its prospects. The investor view (market price) contains an implied view on future earnings growth (or market-implied growth) - and globally that implied number is forecasting negative earnings growth. Which means investors (the market price) and analysts (the forecasts) views diverge at present.
  • Counterparties: Tightening credit spreads over the past year signal greater confidence in financials as reliable counterparties. They also reflect the external environment – our TRust analysis shows spreads widest for European firms in the index likely reflecting relative evaluation of firms located in or highly exposed to the euro.
  • Controversy/Governance: Thomson Reuters ASSET4 data shows that in a period of many controversies across the sector over the past several years, the Top 50 Global Financials experienced a high incidence of 'trust events'. And that the erosion of trust, regulatory pressure and increased awareness of the costs - reputational and monetary - appear to be driving increasingly widespread adoption of policies intended to reduce controversy risk. We believe that tracking this data in the quarters ahead will enable insight into their effectiveness and metrics on progress.

Click here for the Thomson Reuters Q2 2013 TRust Index.


It will be interesting to see how much the markets trust the TRust Index.

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