US-China tariff cuts ease pressure on global growth outlook, says Moody’s

The temporary reduction of tariffs between the US and China has eased some of the immediate risks to global trade and may provide short-term relief for economic growth, according to Moody’s. Effective 14 May, both countries agreed to lower several additional tariffs for 90 days as part of ongoing trade negotiations.

Under the agreement, US tariffs on Chinese goods were reduced to 30% from 145%, while China cut its own tariffs on US goods to 10% from 125%. These adjustments come alongside reductions in de minimis tariff rates for low-value imports, with US rates dropping to 54% from 120%, and commercial carrier packages falling to 30% from 145%. A planned increase in postal fees was also halted.

On the Chinese side, additional tariffs on specific US exports including coal, LNG, and agricultural products were lowered to 10%, and the government pledged to suspend certain non-tariff measures introduced since 2018.

Moody’s notes that the tariff reprieve should help contain cost pressures for US consumers and businesses, particularly for low-value consumer goods. Financial markets responded positively, with global equities rising and the US dollar strengthening. However, the agency cautions that even with temporary relief, low-value Chinese imports will still face significant duties compared to pre-2025 levels, potentially raising living costs, especially for lower-income households.

While the tariff rollback offers near-term stability, Moody’s expects uncertainty to persist. Sectoral tariffs on items such as electric vehicles, solar panels, semiconductors and batteries remain in place, as do broader US trade measures against other partners including the EU, Japan and Korea. These continuing restrictions, along with pending negotiations, are likely to weigh on business investment and consumer confidence.

The agency also highlights that the US-UK Economic Prosperity Deal, signed days before the US-China agreement, reflects broader efforts to redefine trade partnerships. However, contentious issues such as US security requirements for British steel and pharmaceuticals may complicate talks and affect China’s role in global supply chains.

For China, the easing of tariffs will reduce immediate economic pressure, but Moody’s warns that uncertainties around trade will continue to limit export growth and investment. The Chinese government is expected to introduce more domestic stimulus to offset weak internal demand and rising production costs. Many exporters may seek to cut costs, relocate production, or absorb some of the tariff burden to remain competitive.

Moody’s concludes that while the de-escalation helps mitigate disruption, trade tensions will likely remain a structural feature of the global economy. The underlying friction between US trade policy goals and China’s export-driven growth model is expected to persist, contributing to ongoing volatility in global trade dynamics.

 

CFOs eye growth and acquisitions as top priorities for 2025

Most CFOs plan to prioritise organic growth and acquisitions in 2025, according to a Gartner survey, with 87% indicating they are likely or very likely to invest in internal expansion, and 61% eyeing deal-making opportunities. The poll of 110 CFOs across industries and regions, conducted in November 2024, also found that just over half (52%) expect to retain excess cash next year. This suggests a split between those preparing to deploy capital and those holding back amid lingering macroeconomic uncertainty.

Gartner analysts say the trend reflects growing awareness that economic fragmentation and shifting regulatory norms are eroding traditional economies of scale. CFOs that act decisively, the firm argues, may be able to unlock long-term value through timely acquisitions and targeted investment.

“CFOs must seize current economic shifts to unlock transformative value for their organisations through strategic, well-timed deals to employ capital agility, as well as bold investments to set them apart from competitors,” said Janel Everly, senior director analyst in the Gartner Finance practice.

According to Gartner, organisations that succeed in achieving efficient growth across different economic cycles tend to invest in expansion during periods of uncertainty, while tightening operating costs during strong growth phases.

Beyond funding growth, the firm recommends that CFOs dedicate additional time and resources to addressing legal and regulatory risks. Specifically, Gartner highlights corporate tax, labour and employment issues, supplier contracts and trade compliance as areas requiring greater oversight, given the increasing influence of deglobalisation and shifting national standards.

To navigate this complexity, Gartner advises CFOs to collaborate closely with general counsel to ensure legal documentation is up to date, assess the readiness of competitors, and coordinate with HR leaders on workforce strategy. Finance chiefs are also encouraged to work with heads of enterprise risk and supply chain to develop scenario plans and evaluate exposure to emerging risks.

While the overall outlook remains cautious, Gartner’s findings suggest a growing appetite among finance leaders to deploy cash strategically, both to drive organic expansion and to position their organisations for long-term advantage.

 

Goldman shifts Fed rate cut forecast to December

Goldman Sachs now expects the US Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates in December, moving its forecast later into the year as inflation risks ease and economic conditions remain firmer than previously anticipated.

The research team predicts three 25-basis-point cuts, beginning in December and continuing at every other Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. This would mark a slower and more measured approach to monetary easing, rather than a rapid policy shift.

Goldman Sachs Research chief economist Jan Hatzius said the rationale for rate cuts has changed. Where the Fed was previously expected to act pre-emptively to provide insurance against potential economic softness, the updated forecast reflects a less urgent environment for policy support.

“As growth remains somewhat firmer, the unemployment rate rises by somewhat less, and the urgency for policy support is reduced,” Hatzius wrote, “we expect the Fed will instead start cutting with a view to slowly returning interest rates to a more conventional level.”

The team’s projection for the terminal rate remains unchanged at 3.5–3.75%, indicating that while some policy easing is likely, the central bank is expected to maintain a higher baseline rate than in the pre-pandemic period.

The revised outlook follows signs of easing trade tensions between the US and China, which may reduce inflationary pressure and contribute to a more stable economic backdrop heading into 2026.

 

Lloyds and Mercore trial digital bills in secondary trade finance deals

Lloyds Bank and Mercore have completed a series of digital transactions in the secondary market involving accepted digital bills of exchange, believed to be the first of their kind. The deals mark a milestone in the ongoing shift from paper-based to digital trade finance infrastructure.

The transactions involved sugar shipments from Central America to the UK, financed through a digital bill of exchange (DBE) drawn by the exporter and accepted by the importer. Once Lloyds confirmed acceptance, Mercore funded the transaction using the DBE. Lloyds then entered into a secondary participation under a Master Participation Agreement, purchasing a portion of the transaction from Mercore. The use of digital instruments cut the secondary purchase completion time from days to hours, accelerating liquidity for both parties.

Traditionally, secondary market transactions in trade finance rely on the manual handling of paper instruments, limiting speed and flexibility. By contrast, these digital trades were executed using Enigio’s trace:original technology, which allows documents to be securely issued, possessed, and transferred digitally, without requiring both parties to be Enigio users. Secondary participants can either take direct possession of the asset or nominate the executing party to hold it on their behalf.

These latest trades follow previous digital “Four-Corner” transactions completed by Lloyds and Mercore in 2024 under the International Trade and Forfaiting Association’s (ITFA) Digital Negotiable Instrument (DNI) initiative. In those earlier deals, digital documents were exchanged node-to-node between financial institutions acting on behalf of importers and exporters.

The current set of secondary transactions extends that progress by demonstrating how DNIs can function openly in the secondary market. Notably, the model allows firms that do not yet use electronic trade documentation to participate in digital trade finance by purchasing participations in transactions initiated by others.

For corporates, this could signal broader access to working capital and faster trade execution, even without adopting full-scale digital trade processes themselves. If widely adopted, secondary trading of DNIs could significantly boost the efficiency of cross-border commerce by unlocking liquidity earlier in the transaction cycle.

 

Kyriba unveils embedded AI tool to boost finance trust and productivity

Kyriba has launched a finance-specific generative AI solution called TAI, aimed at improving productivity and decision-making without compromising on security, data ownership or regulatory compliance. The tool, which operates on Kyriba’s proprietary large language model (LLM), is designed to enhance workflows across treasury, payments, risk and working capital management. It forms part of the firm’s broader Trusted AI portfolio, which includes offerings such as Cash AI, Invoice AI and Fraud Detection AI.

Kyriba says that what sets TAI apart is its agentic approach: the AI is embedded directly into firm’s platform, eliminating the need for third-party integrations and giving organisations tighter control over data and oversight. The system draws on more than two decades of Kyriba’s global liquidity data to generate predictive insights, flag risks and automate routine processes.

The launch comes amid mounting concerns about AI risks in finance. A recent Kyriba-commissioned survey of 1,000 CFOs and treasury leaders found that while 53% see AI as the most transformative force in their roles over the next five years, 76% are worried about privacy or security issues undermining financial stability.

Finance leaders remain enthusiastic about automation’s potential, but are cautious around governance, ethical risks and workforce impact. Kyriba’s embedded model is positioned as a direct response to these concerns, with an emphasis on complementing rather than replacing human judgement.

Kyriba Chair and CEO Melissa Di Donato underscored this point, saying: “TAI was designed to optimise liquidity performance with nimble, data-driven insights - plus the assurance of integrity, visibility and ownership.”

TAI was showcased at KyribaLive in Orlando last week, where pilot users from the company’s Co-Innovation Lab, including Sodexo, Koch and Mews, are sharing early experiences.

“As a scale up, we are really nimble and agile and we want to be ahead of the trend,” said Hemant Godhwani, head of corporate finance and treasury at Mews. “This was a great opportunity to see how we can integrate AI into the treasury workflows by automating the repetitive tasks and focusing our time on being more productive.”

 

Raiffeisen partners with Wise to streamline cross-border payments in CEE

Raiffeisen Bank International has partnered with Wise Platform to offer faster, lower-cost international payments across Central and Eastern Europe, in a move aimed at improving convenience and transparency for both personal and business customers. The Vienna-based bank, which operates as a universal lender in 11 regional markets, will integrate Wise’s cross-border payments infrastructure directly into its existing customer accounts. The rollout is expected to significantly enhance the speed and affordability of international money transfers throughout the CEE region.

According to Wise, 65% of transfers on its platform are settled in 20 seconds or less, and 95% are completed within 24 hours. While actual transaction speeds may vary, the company’s infrastructure is designed to support real-time execution and competitive exchange rates.

The agreement adds Raiffeisen to a growing roster of banks partnering with Wise to modernise their international payments offering. The collaboration is also intended to drive customer retention by improving the end-to-end experience of sending money abroad.

“This partnership highlights major banks’ commitment to providing outstanding customer experiences and modernising their international payments offering with Wise Platform,” said Steve Naudé, global managing director at Wise Platform. “By integrating our payments infrastructure, Raiffeisen is taking a significant step towards offering customers and businesses exactly this: cross-border payments that are instant, transparent, and ultimately more affordable.”

Wise Platform supports payments in over 40 currencies and to more than 160 countries, underpinned by over 70 regulatory licences and six direct connections to global payment systems.

 

Atlar integrates TreasurySpring to streamline corporate cash investments

Atlar and TreasurySpring have announced a new integration that enables corporate treasury teams to manage surplus cash more efficiently by embedding fixed-term investment products directly into day-to-day treasury workflows. Through the integration, Atlar users can now access TreasurySpring’s marketplace of wholesale cash investment options including collateralised repo, government securities and corporate paper without leaving the Atlar platform. The connection is powered by TreasurySpring’s newly launched public API.

The integration allows Atlar customers to monitor their TreasurySpring portfolios in real time and take action on idle cash, offering a practical route to preserve capital, reduce risk and improve returns without requiring new infrastructure or operational complexity.

The move reflects growing demand among corporates for streamlined tools that allow for more proactive liquidity management. It also expands TreasurySpring’s embedded presence in the treasury technology ecosystem, following its earlier integration with Kyriba.

By linking investment options directly with treasury controls, the collaboration is designed to help finance teams incorporate cash investing into their core cash and risk workflows more effectively.

 

Finastra to sell Treasury and Capital Markets unit to Apax

Finastra has agreed to sell its Treasury and Capital Markets (TCM) division to funds advised by Apax Partners, with the business set to operate as a standalone company under a new brand once the deal completes. TCM provides software for over 340 financial institutions globally, offering front-to-back trade lifecycle solutions through products such as Kondor, Summit and Opics. The unit supports clients in risk management, compliance and capital markets operations and is considered deeply embedded in the banking ecosystem.

The sale will allow Finastra to streamline its portfolio and reinvest capital into its broader financial software business. TCM, meanwhile, will benefit from operational independence and new investment under Apax, with a focus on accelerating product development and enhancing its technology infrastructure, including cloud capabilities. Apax has an track record of investing in financial software and supporting corporate carveouts.

Financial terms of the transaction have not been disclosed. The deal is expected to close in the first half of 2026, subject to customary conditions and consultation with employee representative bodies where required. Advisors on the deal include Evercore, Perella Weinberg Partners, Deutsche Bank, Kirkland & Ellis, and Simpson Thacher & Bartlett.

 

CrediLinq raises US$8.5m to expand embedded finance platform

CrediLinq has secured US$8.5m in Series A funding to expand its AI-powered embedded finance platform across the US, UK and Australia, and to invest further in its proprietary credit technology. The round was led by OM/VC and MS&AD Ventures, with new backing from Citi North America and the Rustem Family Office. Existing investors 500 Global, Epic Angels, 1982 VC and Big Sky Capital also participated.

The company plans to scale its operations geographically and build out its leadership team across sales, marketing, product and engineering. A portion of the funds will go towards enhancing its AI-based credit algorithms, which underpin its platform’s ability to offer real-time credit decisions embedded into third-party digital ecosystems.

CrediLinq’s Credit-as-a-Service model enables B2B platforms to offer financing directly to users by integrating lending functionality at the point of need. Its product suite is already used across sectors such as procurement, e-commerce, supply chain, and payments, with integrations into platforms including Amazon, TikTok Shop and Lazada.

The funding reflects growing investor interest in embedded credit solutions that leverage API-based connectivity and alternative data to offer financing to underserved small and mid-sized enterprises.

 

Albertsons partners with TreviPay to launch invoice payments for business buyers

Albertsons Companies has partnered with TreviPay to offer a new Pay by Invoice option for corporate and institutional buyers, allowing them to make online grocery purchases on 30-day net terms. The programme, now available across Albertsons’ store banners including Safeway, Vons, Jewel-Osco and others, gives business customers access to a dedicated line of credit and a self-serve portal to manage spending limits, track invoices and monitor payments in real time.

The new payment option targets organisations such as schools, government agencies and community programmes that regularly place high-volume or repeat grocery orders. By offering trade credit at checkout, Albertsons aims to support working capital flexibility for these buyers while automating receivables on the back end.

TreviPay handles credit decisioning, invoice generation and collections, enabling Albertsons to settle funds immediately and shift risk off balance sheet. The arrangement is designed to reduce billing errors and free up internal resources for other operational priorities.