CFOs dig in as geopolitical strains drag on

Finance leaders are becoming more defensive as geopolitical risks intensify, but they are not yet retreating from investment, according to McKinsey’s latest CFO Pulse Survey, which points to a corporate sector trying to protect near-term resilience without giving up on growth.

Conducted in late 2025, the survey suggests CFOs are no longer treating geopolitical disruption as a background risk. McKinsey found that 37% of respondents identified geopolitical instability or conflict as one of the biggest threats to company growth over the next 12 months, while 32% pointed to changes in trade policy or trading relationships. Inflation, cited by 31%, and weak demand, at 29%, also remained prominent concerns, with more than a quarter of respondents flagging technology disruption or cyber risk.

Notably, this more anxious risk backdrop has not produced a broad retreat in corporate ambition. Nearly nine in ten respondents said they expected industry growth in the coming year to be similar to or better than the previous 12 months, and almost two-thirds anticipated higher company investment across capital expenditure, research and development, and marketing.

Rather, CFOs appear to be preparing for a world in which growth is still possible, but harder won and more vulnerable to policy shocks, supply disruption and commodity volatility. The combination of stronger investment intentions and rising concern over external disruption suggests many companies are trying to stay positioned for expansion while insulating themselves against sharper swings in trading conditions.

Regionally, that pattern was visible in different ways. CFOs in Asia-Pacific were the most upbeat on industry growth, followed by North America, while respondents in Europe were more neutral. Yet investment intent remained strong across regions, indicating that caution is shaping how companies pursue growth rather than whether they pursue it at all.

Inside finance teams, the clearest sign of that shift is in how time and attention are being allocated. Strategic planning and managing operational value drivers and key performance indicators emerged as the top functional priorities for the next 12 months. By contrast, long-term planning and resource allocation, selected by half of respondents in McKinsey’s earlier 2025 survey, was chosen by only 28% in the latest poll.

Increasingly, that points to a shorter planning horizon inside the finance function. Instead of focusing primarily on transformation or longer-range capital deployment, CFOs appear to be concentrating on performance, execution and protecting value in the near term. McKinsey also found respondents were spending less time on organisational transformation and cost and productivity management than in the previous survey, and more on strategic leadership and performance management.

Liquidity is central to that response. Nearly two-thirds of respondents said they were increasing cash and liquidity buffers to cope with geopolitical uncertainty. More than 60% also said tariffs and other trade barriers would be among the macro issues they would watch most closely over the next year.

Regional priorities have also diverged. In North America, three-quarters of respondents cited tariffs and trade barriers as a key area of focus. Across Europe and Asia-Pacific, domestic industrial policy ranked highest. Technology, intellectual property and cybersecurity controls were among the top three concerns for CFOs in North America and Europe, but fewer than one in ten Asia-Pacific respondents treated those as a leading issue.

Another weak point exposed by the survey is the quality of information available to decision-makers. McKinsey found that 24% of respondents wanted clearer regulatory guidance and government support, while 22% cited real-time intelligence and risk monitoring as the capabilities that would help them navigate uncertainty more confidently.

The findings do not point to panic, but rather a more hedged corporate stance. Companies are still prepared to invest, but they are doing so with more cash on hand, closer performance scrutiny and a growing recognition that geopolitics now shapes capital allocation as much as economics.

 

Eurosystem maps out payments strategy for digital era

Europe’s central banking system has set out a broader payments strategy covering wholesale, business-to-business, retail and cross-border transactions, as it seeks to keep central bank money at the core of a market being reshaped by tokenisation, distributed ledger technology and changing competitive dynamics.

The Eurosystem’s strategy is designed to complement its existing work on cash and retail payments by bringing together a wider set of payment channels in a single framework. It also places recent initiatives, including the digital euro and work on projects such as Pontes and Appia, within a more unified policy direction.

Piero Cipollone, member of the European Central Bank’s Executive Board, said the aim is to ensure payments remain “reliable, fast, competitive and open for innovation” across domestic and cross-border use cases.

Central to the strategy is a four-part agenda. First, the Eurosystem said it wants to preserve the role of central bank money in both retail and wholesale markets, linking that objective to monetary policy transmission, financial stability and the smooth functioning of payment systems. Second, it wants to make Europe’s payments infrastructure more robust and autonomous. Third, it aims to encourage more integrated, innovative and competitive payment solutions for consumers and businesses. Fourth, it said the framework should support the international role of the euro.

Tokenisation features prominently in the document, with the Eurosystem arguing that its potential should be harnessed rather than resisted. For wholesale transactions, however, it said central bank money should remain the foundation for settlement. Private-sector instruments, including tokenised deposits and stablecoins, could play a complementary role, but only if they are euro-denominated, governed within the European Union and properly designed and regulated. For corporate treasurers, that points to a future market structure in which innovation is permitted, but within tighter monetary and regulatory boundaries than some digital asset advocates have pushed for.

Beyond wholesale markets, the strategy also points to operational shortcomings in corporate payments. Standardisation, automation and process integration in business-to-business transactions are singled out as priorities, with the Eurosystem arguing that companies should be able to benefit from more efficient and innovative payment arrangements. For finance teams operating across Europe, that signals continued pressure to modernise payment processes while staying aligned with emerging market standards.

Retail payments are another major pillar. Here, the strategy presents the digital euro as a tool that could help support the emergence of pan-European private payment solutions, rather than replace them. That framing reinforces the ECB’s long-running argument that public and private forms of money should coexist, with central bank infrastructure helping underpin confidence while private providers continue to innovate.

Cash still has a place in that vision. Alongside its digital payments work, the ECB said it remains committed to ensuring euro banknotes stay widely available, accessible and accepted. Work is continuing on a redesigned series of euro banknotes, while the central bank is also backing legal measures intended to strengthen cash’s status as legal tender.

By linking wholesale reform, corporate payments, retail innovation and cross-border ambitions in one document, the Eurosystem is signalling that payments policy is now as much about resilience, autonomy and market structure as it is about speed or convenience. For CFOs and treasurers with European exposure, that raises the likelihood that future payments decisions will be shaped not only by efficiency and cost, but by regulation, settlement design and the strategic direction of the euro area itself.

 

Ripple treasury platform adds single view of cash and digital assets

Corporate treasury teams are being offered a closer link between cash management and digital asset oversight, after Ripple launched two tools designed to let finance functions view and manage fiat and digital liquidity within a single treasury management system. The launch adds Digital Asset Accounts and Unified Treasury to Ripple Treasury, following Ripple’s acquisition of GTreasury in 2025. The company said the additions allow CFOs and treasury teams to view, hold, receive and manage balances held with banks and custody providers in one platform, rather than across separate systems and reconciliation processes.

Demand for that kind of integration appears to be rising. Ripple said its 2026 survey of more than 1,000 global finance leaders found that 72% believe they must offer a digital asset solution to remain competitive, even though many have yet to build those capabilities into existing treasury workflows.

Stablecoin activity is also growing faster than corporate treasury infrastructure. Ripple said stablecoins processed US$33 trillion in volume last year, up 72% from 2024, but added that only a small share of that activity has so far been used for payment use cases such as payroll and remittances. That gap between market growth and operational readiness is the opening Ripple is targeting.

For treasury teams, the pitch is less about trading digital assets than about bringing them into existing control frameworks. Ripple said Digital Asset Accounts let users create and manage a regulated Ripple-native digital asset account directly inside the platform, without requiring a separate custody relationship or external system. Balances including XRP and Ripple USD are shown alongside cash positions and valued in real time.

Features include real-time fiat valuation using live market rates, 15-decimal precision to reflect onchain balances exactly, and automated transaction recording that captures native notional, fiat equivalent and market price at the time of each event. Those functions are intended to reduce reconciliation gaps and produce a more complete audit trail for finance and control teams.

Alongside that, Unified Treasury is designed to give users a consolidated view across cash and digital asset positions. Through Ripple Treasury’s ClearConnect integration layer, customers can connect multiple digital asset providers through application programming interfaces and see balances updated in real time in a reporting currency of their choice, with transaction activity synced automatically as it occurs.

“The design principle behind both capabilities is that digital assets should behave exactly like cash within the platform,” said Mark Johnson, VP, Global Product, Ripple Treasury. “There is no separate digital asset workflow. Treasury teams shouldn’t have to think about whether a balance is onchain or in a bank account - they should simply see their position.”

Ripple said the two products are the first parts of a broader digital asset framework that will later extend to cross-border and intercompany settlement, as well as overnight repo-based yield on idle cash. For corporate treasurers and CFOs, the immediate significance is more practical: if digital assets are to move further into mainstream finance operations, vendors are now trying to make them fit the same visibility, control and compliance structures as conventional liquidity.

 

Oil shock muddies rate outlook for treasurers

Higher oil prices are reviving inflation fears across developed markets, but the bigger risk for corporate treasurers may be that any initial central bank tightening proves short-lived if weaker growth starts to dominate the policy debate.

According to Dominic Wilson, a senior advisor in the Global Markets Research Group at Goldman Sachs Research, the historical pattern after oil supply shocks is less straightforward than markets often assume. “The average historical experience shows slightly higher policy rates in the first one-to-three months after an oil supply shock and lower policy rates six-to-nine months out as growth worries weigh more heavily,” Wilson says.

Energy markets remain volatile following the war in Iran. Brent crude was trading above US$108 a barrel on 6 April, after a sharp recent jump linked to supply disruption fears and uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz. 

Historically, Wilson argues, oil shocks pull policy in two directions at once. “The impact of a shock to oil supply on rates has historically been ambiguous,” according to Wilson. Rising crude prices feed inflation, but they also squeeze activity, margins and demand, complicating the response for central banks.

Elsewhere, policymakers are signalling that the durability of the energy shock will matter. European Central Bank policymaker Yannis Stournaras said the future path of eurozone monetary policy would depend on the size and persistence of the disruption, with a temporary move requiring only limited adjustment but a more lasting shock potentially justifying tighter policy. 

Markets have nevertheless moved quickly to price a more hawkish near-term path in developed economies. Reuters reported on 6 April that expectations for US Federal Reserve rate cuts this year had faded sharply since the Iran conflict began, as investors reassessed the inflation risk from higher energy prices. 

Yet Wilson says investors may be overstating the inflation side of the equation. “We think those inflationary concerns are likely to prove overstated given the risks to growth and likely upward pressure on unemployment rates,” Wilson says.

For CFOs and treasury teams, that leaves a more complicated planning backdrop than a simple higher-for-longer rates story would imply. Oil-driven inflation can lift yields and funding costs quickly, but if weaker demand and softer labour markets follow, the policy path may reverse sooner than markets initially expect.

Ultimately, Wilson’s conclusion is that the near-term reaction may not hold. So while central banks may raise rates in the short term, “there’s a high risk that any hikes may need to be unwound as concerns about growth come to the fore”, Wilson adds. For finance teams weighing hedging, liquidity and refinancing decisions, the message is that oil shocks can tighten financial conditions fast, but they do not necessarily keep rates high for long.

 

China sets steadier course in 2026 plan

China is signalling a more controlled approach to growth, with policymakers prioritising stability, industrial policy and strategic investment over broad demand stimulus, according to a Deutsche Bank Private Bank Chief Investment Office analysis of the country’s 2026 economic blueprint.

Beijing’s targets for 2026 point to a more pragmatic stance as weak domestic demand and geopolitical pressure continue to weigh on the outlook. The Deutsche Bank Private Bank CIO analysis said China is targeting GDP growth of 4.5% to 5.0%, slightly below the 2025 goal, while keeping its consumer price inflation target at around 2%.

Fiscal policy is set to remain supportive but selective. The analysis said the budget deficit would stay at 4% of GDP, with special bond issuance aimed at strategic industries and infrastructure rather than broad-based stimulus. Monetary policy is also expected to remain flexible, with possible reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts intended to preserve liquidity and currency stability.

Alongside those short-term measures, the report said the 15th Five-Year Plan for 2026-2030 reinforces Beijing’s longer-term focus on technological self-reliance, innovation and decarbonisation. Annual research and development spending is set to rise by at least 7%, while the “core digital economy” is targeted to reach 12.5% of GDP by 2030. Mobile technology and wider digital transformation are expected to add US$2 trillion over that period.

Energy transition goals also feature prominently. China wants non-fossil fuels to account for 25% of total energy consumption by 2030, while carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP are targeted to fall by 17%. Urbanisation is another pillar, with the share of urban residents expected to rise to 71% by 2030 from 67.9% in 2025.

The Deutsche Bank Private Bank CIO analysis suggests a policy environment geared more towards targeted support than economy-wide reflation. That could favour sectors aligned with government priorities, including AI, semiconductors, robotics, biotech, advanced manufacturing, renewables, grid infrastructure, energy storage and hydrogen, while reinforcing the need to track policy direction closely when assessing investment exposure, supply chain strategy and funding conditions in China.

 

Afreximbank backs first trade-tech startup cohort

Afreximbank has launched the first cohort of its accelerator programme, selecting eight startups focused on digital infrastructure for intra-African trade from a field of more than 1,600 applicants. Drawn from across Africa and the diaspora, the companies operate in areas including cross-border payments, digital logistics, agri-export platforms, AI-led enterprise tools, supply chain finance and diaspora investment mobilisation. The cohort includes Egypt’s Fincart.io, Nigeria’s Capsa Technologies, Daba Finance in Francophone Africa, and several businesses with multi-market footprints across West, East and Southern Africa.

Under the programme, qualifying startups can receive up to US$250,000 in investment, subject to due diligence and standard investment criteria. Afreximbank said that funding will sit alongside mentorship, market access support and strategic partnerships aimed at helping the companies expand across the continent.

Beyond capital, the programme is designed to plug startups into the bank’s wider trade infrastructure. That includes access to Afreximbank’s network of governments, financial institutions, corporates and trade partners, as well as potential integration into platforms such as the Africa Trade Gateway and the Pan-African Payments and Settlement System. The package also includes regulatory and policy guidance, which could be significant for businesses trying to navigate licensing, compliance and market entry across multiple African markets.

Collectively, the eight startups already have a sizeable footprint. Afreximbank said they operate across more than 15 African countries. Fluna has facilitated more than US$50m in trade across 10 countries, Capsa has processed more than NGN70bn in supply chain finance, Timon supports payments in 15 countries with plans to expand to 40, and Zowasel has connected more than 4,000 verified cooperatives and agribusinesses.

Strategically, the launch gives Afreximbank a more direct role in shaping the digital plumbing behind the African Continental Free Trade Area. For finance teams, exporters and trade-focused corporates, the significance lies in whether ventures such as these can help close long-standing gaps in payments, logistics, financing and compliance that continue to slow cross-border trade across the continent.

 

Mastercard completes first live agentic payment in Hong Kong

Mastercard has completed what it said was its first live authenticated agentic transaction in Hong Kong, in a move that adds the city to a wider regional push into AI-initiated payments. In the transaction, an AI agent booked a ride to Hong Kong International Airport through mobility provider hoppa. CardInfoLink’s AI agent connected to hoppa’s taxi and airport limousine network, while HSBC and DBS Hong Kong participated in the use case. Mastercard said similar transactions were also supported across cards issued by other Hong Kong banks, including Citi Hong Kong, Hang Seng Bank, Standard Chartered Hong Kong and Mox Bank.

Security and authentication were central to the pilot. Mastercard said the payment used tokenised credentials and Mastercard Payment Passkeys to verify the user and protect data. Under its Agent Pay framework, each transaction also uses what the company describes as a dedicated agentic token issued to a specific AI agent, with consumer consent and purchase confirmation built into the process.

The development is another sign that AI-led commerce is moving beyond theory and into live payment environments. While this use case was consumer-facing and relatively simple, the underlying issue is broader: payment providers are now testing how agent-led transactions can be authorised, authenticated and controlled within existing card and banking infrastructure.

Regionally, Hong Kong is not the first market where Mastercard has tested the model. The company said it has already completed authenticated agentic transactions in Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Malaysia, India, South Korea and Taiwan.

Next steps are likely to focus on widening the range of sectors involved. Mastercard said it plans to extend authenticated agentic transactions into areas including transport, travel, entertainment and retail, while also building out AI-focused teams, partnerships and governance structures across Asia-Pacific. That suggests the commercial question is shifting from whether agentic commerce can work to how quickly payment controls, liability frameworks and customer consent models can keep pace.

 

Business owners seek more joined-up financial advice

US business owners are looking for more integrated financial advice, but many still manage key decisions in silos, according to PNC Private Bank’s inaugural Business Owner Wealth Insights report, based on a national survey conducted with Ipsos. PNC found that 89% of respondents value advice that takes account of both business and personal needs, while 88% see value in working with a dedicated adviser who understands both. Yet only 55% currently work with a financial adviser across both areas, pointing to a gap between what owners say they want and how they are actually managing their finances.

The more immediate signal is that core business pressures remain firmly in focus. Cash flow was cited as the leading challenge by 33% of respondents, narrowly ahead of keeping pace with evolving technology at 32%. Both findings point to an operating environment where liquidity discipline and system modernisation remain high on the agenda.

Capital allocation is another area of strain. While 26% of respondents said balancing business reinvestment with tax strategy is challenging, 40% said they would be willing to sacrifice tax efficiency in favour of reinvesting in the business. That suggests many owners are still prioritising growth and operational resilience over tax optimisation when forced to choose.

Almost all respondents said they reassess business decisions to ensure they align with personal growth goals, including 98% of business owners overall and 100% of family business owners. Even so, about 40% said they do this only occasionally or rarely, indicating that strategic review is not always embedded in day-to-day decision-making.

About two-thirds of respondents also said they manage business and personal finances separately, reinforcing the picture of fragmented planning even where financial priorities are closely linked.

 

Mitsubishi advances global cash pooling with programmable payments

Mitsubishi Corporation has become the first Japanese corporate to use Kinexys Digital Payments for intragroup US dollar cash management across Singapore, London and New York, in a move that points to growing corporate interest in round-the-clock liquidity tools.

Rather than relying on traditional cut-off times and holiday calendars, the group is using blockchain deposit accounts and programmable payments to move funds between subsidiaries in near real time when pre-set conditions are met. That allows treasury teams to automate internal transfers using rule-based instructions, giving them more flexibility over how group liquidity is allocated across major financial centres.

For a company with global operations spanning multiple industries, the appeal is straightforward: faster access to cash, more responsive liquidity management and greater ability to deal with short-notice funding needs, including those driven by commodity market volatility. The arrangement also shows how programmable payments are starting to move from pilot-stage concepts into day-to-day treasury activity.

Kazuyoshi Kawakami, treasurer at Mitsubishi Corporation, said: “Our liquidity management is a core source of credit strength. As we are developing and operating businesses globally across a wide array of industries, it is essential that funds raised in the market and cash generated across our operations can be allocated efficiently throughout our consolidated group. As we pursue stable and sustainable growth through investment, trading, and other business activities, we believe our liquidity management should also continue to evolve. Instant and programmable payments can support it, while also getting our resilience strong in times of market stress. We expect this initiative represents an important step in elevating our liquidity management framework.”

The development marks the first use of Kinexys by J.P. Morgan’s pre-programmed, 24/7 near real-time onchain payments by a Japanese corporate. J.P. Morgan said the platform has processed more than US$3 trillion in transaction volume since inception, with average daily transactions above US$5bn.

Viewed more broadly, the case highlights how large corporates are exploring treasury structures that combine automation, continuous settlement and faster internal fund mobility, particularly where liquidity demands can shift quickly across markets and time zones.

 

French banks adopt CLS cross-currency swaps service

BNP Paribas, Crédit Agricole CIB and Natixis CIB have gone live on CLS’s cross-currency swaps service, extending the use of payment-versus-payment settlement in a market where large principal exchanges can leave participants exposed to sizeable settlement risk.

Cross-currency swaps are particularly sensitive to that risk because the initial and final exchanges of principal are often high in value. When those flows are settled on a gross bilateral basis, the process can also tie up liquidity and add operational complexity.

CLS said its service works with OSTTRA MarkitWire to route cross-currency swap flows into CLSSettlement, allowing participants to use multilateral netting alongside their wider foreign exchange activity. In practice, that means institutions can offset obligations across a broader pool of transactions rather than funding each trade in isolation.

Activity on the service has been rising. CLS said the average daily settled value of cross-currency swap flows submitted to CLSSettlement increased by 87% in 2025, suggesting stronger demand for settlement models that reduce funding pressure as well as counterparty risk.

Regulatory expectations are part of that backdrop. Principle 35 of the FX Global Code says market participants should eliminate settlement risk where practicable, including through payment-versus-payment mechanisms, and otherwise reduce the size and duration of that risk as far as possible. It also encourages the netting of FX settlement obligations, particularly through automated systems.

Against that framework, the move by three major French institutions points to continued momentum behind post-trade infrastructure that can reduce settlement exposures while improving liquidity efficiency. For banks and market participants active in foreign exchange and funding markets, the development underlines how operational resilience and liquidity optimisation are becoming more closely linked in the handling of complex FX products.

 

BMO targets 24/7 liquidity with tokenised cash platform

BMO is moving into tokenised cash and deposits through a collaboration with CME Group and Google Cloud, with the clearest treasury angle centred on round-the-clock liquidity and collateral mobility rather than the technology itself. The bank said the planned offering will allow institutional clients to convert US dollars into tokenised instruments that can be used with margined products at CME Group. In practical terms, that is aimed at helping firms meet margin calls, settlement obligations and other high-value funding needs outside traditional banking hours.

That matters because markets are edging towards longer trading windows and more continuous settlement, while much of the underlying cash infrastructure still runs on cut-off times and batch processes. A 24/7 tokenised cash model is designed to narrow that mismatch by allowing value to move when exposures arise, rather than when payment rails reopen.

Initially, the tokenised cash capability will be available to mutual BMO and CME Group clients, with launch planned for the second half of 2026, subject to regulatory approval. BMO said it is intended for regulated financial institutions active in capital markets and commercial banking.

Alongside that, the bank also set out plans for tokenised deposits, which would represent traditional commercial bank funds in digital form. That has broader relevance for treasury functions because BMO said those deposits are intended to support business-to-business payments, internal treasury movements and programmable cash applications.

The more important signal is that banks are trying to build treasury tools around always-on liquidity rather than standard operating hours. If that model gains traction, the biggest benefit may be less about digital assets as a category and more about faster access to cash, more flexible collateral management and fewer funding frictions across time zones.

 

Abrigo gains Nacha partner status for ACH fraud tools

Abrigo has been named a Nacha Preferred Partner for ACH experience, compliance, risk and fraud prevention, giving the software provider a higher-profile role as banks respond to tighter expectations around payment monitoring.

The designation is relevant because Nacha has recently strengthened its focus on transaction monitoring and fraud controls across the ACH network. Abrigo said its platform is used by more than 2,400 financial institutions and includes tools that analyse ACH files in real time to flag higher-risk patterns before payments are processed.

Those alerts are designed to identify issues such as suspected mule accounts, fan-out behaviour and unusual transaction timing. For banks and payment teams, that speaks to a broader shift towards earlier intervention in ACH processing, rather than relying mainly on post-event detection and remediation.

Nacha’s Preferred Partner programme is intended for organisations whose products and services support the development of the ACH network. In this case, the emphasis is on fraud prevention and compliance at a point when financial institutions are under greater pressure to show that payment controls are both effective and auditable.

More broadly, the announcement underlines how ACH risk management is becoming more technology-driven as fraud patterns grow more complex. For corporates using ACH heavily, that could mean continued tightening in bank-side screening, monitoring and exception handling as institutions adapt to updated rules and try to reduce exposure before transactions enter the network.