Exporters rethink supply chains as trade war fallout deepens 

Global exporters are scrambling to adjust to prolonged trade tensions and tariff volatility, with new data from Allianz Trade pointing to widespread disruption in trade volumes, payment terms, and investment plans. The Allianz Trade Global Survey, which covers 4,500 exporters across nine major economies, shows that 60% of firms expect a negative impact from the US-led trade war, and nearly half anticipate a decline in export turnover. The report is based on responses collected before and after the 2 April “Liberation Day” tariff announcements, which marked a key escalation in US-China trade tensions.

Since then, optimism has collapsed. Positive export expectations dropped from 80% to 40%, and the share of firms forecasting export declines between 2% and 10% rose from 5% to 42%. Around 25% are even considering temporary production halts due to tariffs and currency volatility, particularly in sectors reliant on imported inputs. Allianz Trade estimates global export losses could reach US$305bn in 2025.

While recent bilateral trade deals have offered some relief, most firms view it as temporary. In the US, 86% of companies front-loaded shipments earlier this year to pre-empt tariff hikes, and many are expected to do so again before the current 90-day pauses expire in July and August.

Firms are relying heavily on cost pass-through, supply chain diversification, and alternative shipping routes to stay competitive. More than half of US companies plan to raise export prices, and many exporters across Spain and Poland are sourcing from new markets. Around one-third have already found new destinations for their goods, while two-thirds are actively exploring options.

Logistics strategies are also shifting. A majority of companies now seek to shift customs and delivery responsibility to suppliers, although US firms continue to prefer “Cost, Insurance & Freight” terms. To manage currency risk, 59% of firms are introducing contract clauses to share FX volatility with buyers and suppliers.

The broader pattern shows a global reorientation. The US-China decoupling appears to be accelerating: US firms’ interest in exporting to China and East Asia halved after the April announcements, while Chinese exporters’ expectations for North America collapsed from 15% to 3%. US companies are increasingly eyeing Western Europe and Latin America for production, while Chinese and European exporters are looking to Latin America as a cost-effective route into the US market.

Payment risk is also rising. Nearly half of all firms expect non-payment risk to increase, and one in four anticipate longer payment terms of more than seven days. Fewer than 12% of exporters are still paid within 30 days. In the UK, France, Italy, and the US, the majority of firms now wait between 30 and 70 days for payment.

The emerging trend is one of structural fragmentation. Exporters are no longer just navigating a temporary disruption, they are reconfiguring global trade relationships around enduring volatility.

“Larger firms tend to experience longer payment delays, with 26% of surveyed companies having a turnover above €5bn facing payment terms exceeding 70 days, compared to 18% for the overall sample average,” commented Ana Boata, Head of Economic Research at Allianz Trade. “This suggests that major companies are increasingly taking on the role of an invisible bank for smaller companies. As exporters face longer payment cycles and rising insolvency risks, they’re under pressure to pass on costs, source from new markets, or even reconsider their entire international footprint.”

 

Corporates step up FX hedging as tariff volatility shakes currency markets

Corporate treasury teams are ramping up their use of FX hedging in response to tariff-driven volatility, according to new data from MillTechFX. The company’s latest Hedging Monitor shows that firms are increasing both their hedge ratios and hedge lengths in a bid to lock in more certainty as currency markets fluctuate under the pressure of US trade policy.

The findings, based on a survey of 250 senior finance leaders in the UK and US, reveal that 100% of respondents said their business had been impacted by recent tariff-related market volatility. While the impact has been mixed, negatively affecting 52% of US firms and benefiting 85% of UK businesses, the shared response has been defensive: 54% of corporates have extended their hedge lengths, and 43% have increased hedge ratios.

The divergence between UK and US responses is notable. UK hedge lengths now average 6.57 months, the highest in over a year, as firms look to take advantage of favourable rates amid a weaker dollar. By contrast, US corporates have shortened their hedge lengths to 5.84 months and are operating with the lowest hedge ratios MillTechFX has recorded since tracking began. This suggests a preference for flexibility amid uncertainty.

Eric Huttman, CEO of MillTechFX, noted that this geographical split reflects contrasting currency dynamics: “It’s clear this volatility was top of mind for CFOs. Volatility was the most significant external factor influencing FX hedging decisions (24%) in Q1 2025.”

Currency swings have been significant since the start of the year. The pound rose from around $1.25 in January to over $1.30 by mid-March, gaining 3.5% in the first quarter. Meanwhile, the dollar saw its steepest early-year drop since 1989, with the Dollar Index falling 8.4% due to trade tensions, economic concerns, and speculation around the US’s international policy stance. The euro also gained almost 10% against the dollar, supported by eurozone exports and fiscal stimulus in Germany.

Despite these movements, aggregate hedge ratios remained steady at 52% quarter-on-quarter, with only a slight increase in average hedge length from 6.5 to 6.6 months. But these headline figures mask underlying shifts in strategy, particularly among US corporates who appear to be reducing protection levels in favour of greater agility.

Beyond FX, tariffs are also having a wider operational impact. Many firms are adjusting procurement and logistics strategies, and the study notes that businesses without hedging programmes are likely to have suffered more from recent volatility. The data suggest that more firms may now look to formalise their hedging approaches to mitigate ongoing risk.

As tariff-related uncertainty continues, MillTechFX expects more corporates to increase hedge coverage but warns that timing will be crucial to avoid locking in unfavourable rates.

“Looking ahead, we can expect more hedging activity as tariffs continue to bite,” Huttman adds. “In recent weeks, several of our clients pushed their hedges out to the maximum available tenor as they looked to lock in protection and ride out near-term instability. This makes sense, given that extending hedges maintains the same level of protection against currency movements but without the need to book in profit and loss generated by short-term FX swings. Those without hedging programmes will likely have suffered from recent volatility and should consider implementing a risk management programme to protect their bottom line, but they need to ensure they don’t lock in rates at the wrong time and suffer more losses.”

 

CFOs urged to adopt catalyst mindset to drive growth through uncertainty

CFOs must move beyond their traditional role as financial gatekeepers and embrace a more strategic, growth-focused mindset if they are to lead effectively through today’s volatile environment, according to analysts at Gartner’s CFO & Finance Executive Conference.

In a keynote presentation, Mallory Bulman, Senior Director Analyst in the Gartner Finance practice, and Clement Christensen, also a Senior Director Analyst in the Gartner Finance practice, warned that while the instinct to cut costs and reduce exposure is understandable, an overreliance on the so-called “guardian” CFO identity can hinder long-term growth and create unintended risks.

“In difficult times, CFOs tend to default to the guardian role of looking for a risk or area of uncertainty, and protecting their organisations from the downside,” said Bulman. “They are asking themselves, ‘What do I cut? Where should I pull back to reduce risk?’”

Gartner’s data shows that 93% of finance teams experience unintended consequences when operating in a guardian mode, ranging from short-termism to underinvestment in innovation. In contrast, “catalyst” CFOs use periods of disruption to reposition their organisations, accelerate transformation, and support growth.

Citing the early response to the COVID-19 pandemic as an example, Christensen noted that while the initial steps were understandably defensive, forward-looking CFOs quickly shifted focus: “CFOs who pulled ahead quickly figured out where they could accelerate their digitisation efforts, so their organisations weren’t hampered by remote work.”

These leaders adapted product offerings, diversified suppliers, and built strategic partnerships. These are habits that Gartner says remain essential today as finance teams contend with trade volatility, regulatory uncertainty, and rising demand for autonomous finance.

To support this shift, Gartner highlighted four essential habits that distinguish catalyst CFOs from their more defensive counterparts. First, they adopt a different tone when speaking about finance’s role in the business. Rather than focusing solely on control and compliance, they use language that reflects innovation, agility, and problem-solving, helping reframe finance as a strategic driver of growth and transformation.

Second, catalyst CFOs actively embrace complexity. As AI and automation take over routine tasks, they steer their teams toward more ambiguous, high-value challenges that require human insight. This involves adjusting incentives and recognition systems to reward work that adds strategic value rather than simply improving efficiency.

Third, instead of expanding headcount to deal with growing demands, forward-thinking finance leaders invest in scalable tools that allow business units to make more informed decisions independently. By equipping the wider organisation with decision-ready insights, finance teams can extend their impact without becoming a bottleneck.

Finally, these CFOs shift from a process-focused mindset to a product-focused one. This means treating finance outputs, such as dashboards, models and tools, as value-adding products tailored to the needs of business users, rather than internal processes to be maintained. In doing so, they foster a more collaborative and innovative relationship between finance and the rest of the business.

“Now is the moment for CFOs and their teams to embrace the identity of catalysts and lead their organisations on a long-term positive path,” said Bulman.

 

Banks brace for cost hit from SEPA Instant but back long-term benefits

Almost half of European banks expect to lose millions in interest as a result of new liquidity demands under the SEPA Instant Payments Regulation, according to research from RedCompass Labs. The findings come from a survey of 300 senior payments professionals and reflect mounting concern as banks prepare for the October 2025 deadline, when euro instant payments become mandatory across the EU.

A key issue is liquidity management. The requirement to offer 24/7 instant payments clashes with the limited operating hours of the ECB’s TARGET2 system, forcing banks to pre-fund liquidity in the TARGET Instant Payment Settlement (TIPS) system. This ties up capital that could otherwise earn interest or be used for lending. Almost all respondents (93%) expressed concern about the cost impact, with nearly half (48%) saying they are “very concerned.”

The planned removal of the €100,000 transaction cap is expected to compound this, making liquidity needs harder to predict. In response, banks are increasing buffers, improving screening tools and adjusting risk frameworks. Many are also forming bilateral agreements to manage exposure limits.

Sanctions screening is another pressure point. Over half (54%) reported a spike in rejected payments linked to the 10-second clearing requirement. Two-thirds are investing in AI to reduce false positives and improve transaction monitoring.

Despite the challenges, 82% of banks believe the benefits of SEPA Instant outweigh the costs, up from 71% last year. Demand is growing, particularly from corporates, and 85% of banks now believe the October deadline is realistic.

Interest is also spreading beyond the EU, with 51% of banks prioritising SEPA Instant readiness for non-EU operations ahead of the 2027 deadline. Meanwhile, ISO 20022 migration remains ongoing, with only 39% of banks having completed the process.

 

Booking.com adopts Swift SCORE+ for real-time payments

Booking.com has implemented Swift’s SCORE+ service via Broadridge, marking a significant step forward in modernising its global payments infrastructure. The rollout enables real-time tracking, improved data quality and streamlined bank connectivity across Booking.com’s international treasury operations.

SCORE+ is the latest evolution of Swift’s Standardised Corporate Environment, offering multinational corporates a single Swift connection for all banking relationships. Delivered through Broadridge’s established platform, the service provides enhanced transaction visibility and operational efficiency using ISO 20022 payment standards.

Corporates with multiple banking partners typically face fragmented payment processes, logging into different bank portals, reconciling inconsistent data, and contending with limited visibility. With Broadridge’s SCORE+ solution, Booking.com now benefits from a unified multi-bank connection, real-time payment tracking, automated exception handling and near-instant credit confirmation updates.

“Booking’s relationship with Broadridge dates back to almost a decade, starting with leveraging the standardised and secure Swift Gateway, via Broadridge, connecting all the banks across the globe,” said Athresh Sudhindra, Treasury Manager – Banking Technology, Booking.com. “This is further enhanced with Broadridge’s SCORE+ solution, allowing Booking to have near real-time tracking and settlement confirmation of cross-border payments. It has been a great overall experience partnering with Broadridge to improve operational efficiencies and ensuring greater visibility and tracking of cross-border payments.”

Booking.com also participated in Swift’s Corporate Working Group to pilot the solution, testing its ability to improve multi-bank transaction transparency and streamline cross-border payment workflows.

SCORE+ aligns with Swift’s Cross-Border Payments and Reporting framework and is designed to support corporates transitioning to an API-first, ISO 20022-compliant payment landscape. Broadridge continues to support corporate clients in adopting the new standards and future-proofing their treasury operations.

 

HSBC launches tokenised deposit service for corporates in Hong Kong

HSBC has gone live with a tokenised deposit service for corporate clients in Hong Kong, marking the city’s first bank-led blockchain-based settlement infrastructure. The new platform enables real-time HKD and USD transfers between corporate wallets held with HSBC, offering an always-on solution for treasury operations.

Initially limited to intra-company transfers, the service is designed to enhance liquidity management by providing greater transparency and efficiency. It also supports a range of future tokenisation use cases, including those being developed under the Hong Kong Monetary Authority’s (HKMA) Project Ensemble initiative.

Ant International is the first corporate to adopt the service, completing an instant fund transfer between its entities using tokenised deposits through its internal treasury platform.

The launch builds on HSBC’s prior work with Ant International, including a cross-bank HKD-denominated experiment under HKMA’s Ensemble Sandbox in October 2024. That trial demonstrated the potential of tokenised deposits to support real-time corporate treasury operations across banks using a common interoperability platform.

The service also marks the first live pilot under HKMA’s Supervisory Sandbox for Distributed Ledger Technology, as regulators seek to assess how blockchain can be safely integrated into financial infrastructure.

Developed in-house, HSBC’s platform is expected to support broader digital money and tokenisation efforts across Hong Kong’s financial ecosystem. The bank has already completed several proof-of-concept projects under Project Ensemble, demonstrating the feasibility of transferring tokenised deposits and assets across different blockchain networks.

With plans to expand the service beyond Hong Kong, HSBC aims to leverage blockchain’s programmability and settlement speed to offer more responsive, compliant and efficient solutions for corporate cash and liquidity management.

 

GLEIF and Finternet Lab team up to tackle digital identity gaps

The Global Legal Entity Identifier Foundation (GLEIF) has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Finternet Lab to collaborate on advancing trusted and interoperable digital identity and transaction infrastructure. The partnership aims to address persistent shortcomings in identity verification, data provenance, and cross-platform interoperability, issues that continue to challenge emerging digital ecosystems such as decentralised finance, ESG reporting, and supply chain transparency.

As part of the agreement, the organisations will explore the integration of GLEIF’s verifiable Legal Entity Identifier (vLEI) credentials with Finternet Lab’s open-source tools, including the Universal Information Tokenisation System (UNITS), decentralised identity frameworks, and transaction protocols.

The vLEI, developed by GLEIF, provides a cryptographically verifiable digital identity for legal entities and their representatives. It is designed to serve as a global standard for digital trust infrastructure, helping businesses authenticate counterparties and streamline compliance in online transactions.

Planned joint initiatives include pilot programmes, developer workshops, and technical evaluations of protocols such as the Key Event Receipt Infrastructure (KERI). The partnership will also work on developing shared standards and governance frameworks to support the adoption of verifiable digital identity systems at scale.

Both organisations emphasise that scalable, secure identity and transaction tools are critical to building trust in the digital economy, particularly as regulatory and commercial pressures mount across decentralised networks and multi-jurisdictional business environments.

 

QR sign-ins surge on BofA’s CashPro platform

Bank of America has reported a 60% year-on-year increase in the adoption of QR sign-in technology on its CashPro platform, used by over 40,000 corporate and commercial clients globally for treasury, trade and credit operations. The authentication feature, introduced in 2022, has now surpassed two million uses. It allows users to scan a QR code on their computer screen with a mobile device and log in using biometrics, removing the need for passwords or physical tokens. Adoption is highest in Europe, where usage is more than twice as frequent as in other regions.

Karen Davis, head of treasury and trade finance for oil & gas at Glencore and a member of BofA’s UK CashPro Board, said: “QR sign-in makes it simple to get into CashPro. I use the mobile token security that’s built into the process too, so I don’t need to worry about carrying around a physical token. It’s so quick and convenient. I don’t know why people wouldn’t use it.”

The QR feature forms part of Bank of America’s broader effort to enhance user experience and security through digital innovation. CashPro’s integrated mobile token enables secure multi-factor authentication without the operational burden of separate devices.

Most recently, the bank launched Push Authentication to further simplify login procedures, building on a suite of enhancements designed to support clients in managing complex cash and liquidity needs through a seamless digital experience.

 

FIS and Kipp launch NSF solution to reduce card declines

FIS has partnered with issuer-merchant collaboration platform Kipp to launch a new authorisation solution aimed at reducing debit card declines caused by non-sufficient funds (NSF). The offering allows merchants to pay a premium to authorise NSF transactions, helping issuers capture revenue that would otherwise be lost without passing overdraft fees on to consumers.

The solution is designed to address one of the leading causes of payment failure: insufficient funds. For merchants, NSF declines can mean lost sales and wasted resources. For issuers, they increase contact centre traffic and customer dissatisfaction, while contributing to missed revenue opportunities and lower card usage.

FIS says the new service offers a reimagined economic model that benefits all parties. By enabling merchants to cover shortfalls on low-risk transactions, the system allows issuers to approve more payments, protect customer relationships and improve wallet share.

The partnership gives FIS debit clients access to an interoperable solution that connects merchants, banks and payment systems in real-time. The aim is to create a seamless experience at the point of sale, reducing friction while preserving trust.

The NSF authorisation tool is being positioned as a first-of-its-kind service that could help issuers drive long-term value by recovering revenue and increasing approval rates, without compromising customer satisfaction. For Kipp, the collaboration builds on its mission to strengthen cooperation between merchants and card issuers through shared infrastructure.

FIS clients can begin integrating the solution immediately, with the company highlighting the potential for faster, more dynamic money movement across the payments ecosystem.

 

Visa launches AR Manager to streamline virtual card processing

Visa has announced the general availability of Visa AR Manager in the US, a solution designed to automate the virtual card transaction process and reduce friction in commercial payments. The product aims to help suppliers grow and retain card volumes by simplifying how they accept and reconcile virtual card payments.

AR Manager automates several key steps in the virtual card lifecycle, including retrieving card account details, initiating authorisation and clearing, and providing reconciliation data directly into suppliers’ ERP systems. The tool reduces manual intervention, helping merchants focus on core business operations while improving accounts receivable efficiency.

The solution supports batch file integration and email parsing to retrieve card data, with an API version in development. It also enables transaction processing on behalf of suppliers for most major US acquirers and delivers timely reconciliation to ensure invoices are closed accurately.

Visa says the offering addresses a long-standing pain point for suppliers by removing complexity from virtual card acceptance and boosting automation across payment workflows.

The launch expands Visa’s commercial solutions portfolio as it seeks to improve acceptance infrastructure for B2B payments and drive greater adoption of virtual cards among corporates and their suppliers.

 

J.P. Morgan launches AI-powered fraud risk score for payments

J.P. Morgan Payments has introduced the Account Confidence Score (ACS), a proprietary AI- and machine learning-driven tool designed to help businesses assess the fraud risk of beneficiary accounts before making payments. Integrated into the J.P. Morgan Access cash management platform, the ACS tool is part of the firm’s broader Trust & Safety Solutions offering. It evaluates beneficiary accounts using over 15 billion internal payment records and factors such as account age, transaction frequency, location, and historical fraud indicators.

The score ranges from 0 to 1,000 and is accompanied by a Red, Amber, or Green (RAG) rating, providing clients with a quick view of potential risk. Suggested actions such as additional checks are included to help prevent common fraud threats like business email compromise, payroll fraud, and invoice manipulation.

ACS aims to streamline payments while enhancing fraud defences, giving clients greater confidence in their payment processes and beneficiary data. J.P. Morgan says the tool reflects its strategy to blend banking infrastructure with advanced technology, helping corporates respond to rising fraud risks without slowing down operations.

The feature is now available to clients using J.P. Morgan Access, reinforcing the bank’s commitment to secure, real-time decision-making in digital payments.

 

Mashreq launches API Marketplace to support open finance innovation

Mashreq has launched a next-generation API Marketplace aimed at accelerating digital innovation for corporates, developers and fintechs across the MENA region. The platform offers seamless access to the bank’s suite of APIs, enabling real-time visibility on payments, receivables and liquidity.

Designed to support open banking and digital transformation, the marketplace includes features such as automated developer registration, sandbox environments, case studies and a flexible subscription model. It aims to foster collaboration and co-creation by simplifying access to the bank’s digital infrastructure and enabling direct integration into client workflows.

The launch aligns with broader regulatory momentum in the UAE, where the Central Bank’s Open Finance Framework encourages API adoption and bank-fintech collaboration. Mashreq says the platform is part of its wider digital strategy to scale services beyond traditional channels and empower clients to innovate at speed. Developers can access detailed documentation and intuitive tools to build and deploy financial solutions tailored to evolving business needs.

The initiative marks another step in Mashreq’s effort to position itself as a regional leader in open finance, offering partners the tools to create more agile, embedded and connected financial services.

 

Citi launches real-time PayTo solution for institutional clients

Citi has gone live with PayTo initiator, an account-to-account payment solution offering its institutional clients a faster, more secure and cost-effective alternative to cards and direct debits. The solution lets Citi’s clients initiate real-time pull payments directly from a customer’s bank account, supporting a wide range of use cases from in-app and e-commerce payments to payroll, subscriptions and utility bills. The solution aims to reduce reliance on card networks, cut fees and minimise chargebacks, while providing clients with seamless reconciliation and transparent processing.

The launch is part of Citi’s broader push to support digital transformation in payments as demand for 24/7, low-cost solutions grows. Citi anticipates strong uptake of PayTo as corporates seek smarter, more integrated alternatives to legacy payment rails. The bank's Services unit, which includes this new offer, processes nearly US$5tn daily and serves 19,000 clients globally, including 85% of the Fortune 500. PayTo joins other recent innovations such as Spring by Citi and Real-Time Funding, which support e-commerce and cross-border transactions.

Citi says PayTo will help clients keep pace with technological change while improving the end-customer experience through faster, more efficient payment flows.

 

RMB slips to fifth most active global payments currency in April

Swift’s RMB Tracker has shown that in April, the RMB dropped one position to be the fifth most active currency for global payments by value, with a share of 3.50%. Overall, RMB payment value decreased by 14.14% compared to March, while all payment currencies increased by 1.35%. Regarding international payments, excluding payments within the Eurozone, the RMB ranked sixth with a share of 2.38% in April.

The tracker uses data from live and delivered MT 103 and MT 202 - customer-initiated and institutional payments - and ISO equivalent messages exchanged on Swift. RMB’s fifth place out of all international currencies in April saw it fall below the Japanese yen, which moved up to fourth place with 4.03% market share. The top three currencies held firm, with the US dollar (49.68% of all global payments value) followed by the euro (22.24%), and the British pound (6.51%).

As a global currency in the trade finance market, based on live and delivered inter-group only MT 400 and MT 700 messages exchanged on SWIFT, RMB took third place based on value, accounting for 6.15% of April’s trade finance transactions. This field remains dominated by the US dollar (82.05%), with the euro in second place (6.21%).

Regarding FX spot transactions, RMB was April’s fifth most used currency for FX confirmations. The US dollar again claimed the top spot here, followed by the euro, yen, and pound. In terms of the top economies carrying out FX spot transactions in RMB, the UK came out on top in April (44.91%), followed by the US (13.98%), Hong Kong (10.07%), France (9.06%), and China (6.00%).