Five reasons why corporates won’t shy away from China in 2016
by Kylene Casanova
Despite sharp falls on China's stock market and deep economic uncertainty since 2016 got underway, it is unlikely that corporate treasurers at multinational corporations (MNCs) will be radically rethinking their Chinese cash management strategies. The most populous country in the world is just too big to ignore, whether it's booming or just a little bit less booming than before.
Of course, yuan volatility is on all corporate treasurers' radar, as is the inch-by-inch deregulation coming from the People's Bank of China. But trading with China and even locating treasury centres in the region will continue as before.
Here are some of the reasons why MNCs simply cannot avoid China:
- More companies than ever are now doing business in renminbi. China's currency became the fifth most widely used currency for payments in the world in 2015, according to SWIFT. As of October last year, the renminbi overtook the yen to gain fifth place with 1.92% of global payments.
More regionally, towards the end of 2015, the RMB overtook both the HK dollar and the US dollar to become the second most used currency for payments between Japan and China/Hong Kong.
The adoption of yuan-denominated trade is growing across the board, with renminbi now the currency of choice for three in 10 payments between South Africa and Greater China.
With this level of growth, MNCs simply can't afford to ignore the renminbi, volatility notwithstanding.
- At the end of 2015, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) voted to include the renminbi in its basket of reserve currencies, where it joins the dollar, euro, pound, and yen. It is expected to be included from 1 October 2016. Many have taken this as a signal of things to come, with the expectation that China will make further deregulatory changes in the next 10 years, with an opening up for foreign investors into the Chinese capital markets.
- The creation of free trade zones is also a sign that China is set on liberalising its economic regulations. In 2013, it established the Shanghai Free Trade Zone (SFTZ), easing restrictions on foreign currency exchange, which enabled corporates to do cross-border sweeping. In April 2015, the government established three more free trade zones in Guangdong, Fujian and Tianjin. Each zone has its particular set of reforms and measures but they all aim to attract and facilitate foreign investment into China.
- And of course one person's loss is another's gain, so while the papers focus on today's stock market losses, many foreign investors will be looking for ways to make the slowdown work in their favour. Kelvin Ang, director of the treasury advisory group at Citi Treasury & Trade Solutions, told Treasury&Risk that many companies will see an opportunity to make sure they are ready to benefit when there is another surge in China's growth: “They will be looking to do things that help them to gain on their competitors when the market does pick up sometime in the future.”
- The fact remains that, although China is in the middle of an economic slowdown and is showing many signs of the jitters, it's still the fastest-growing economy in the world. The World Bank's 2014 figures for real GDP growth puts China in front (joint with India) with 7.3 per cent, compared to the US with 2.4 per cent and the Eurozone with 0.9 per cent. China's growth rate is expected to remain stable at the 6-7 per cent mark for the next five years, which means that it will continue to be one of the world's most attractive business partner.
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