Geopolitics, FX risk and cash visibility weigh on treasury outlook

Geopolitical tension is bearing down more heavily on treasury teams, with 88% of respondents in Tradeweb ICD Portal’s 2026 client survey saying they are moderately to highly concerned about the current backdrop, and 48% describing themselves as highly concerned. That latter figure is 11 percentage points higher than in 2025, according to the survey of 120 treasury and finance professionals conducted in January, and was two-and-a-half times larger than for any other response option. Tradeweb said concern levels also rose across almost every other risk category it polled, pointing to a broader deterioration in sentiment rather than a single-issue spike.

One consequence is a more defensive approach to liquidity. Some 27% of organisations said they plan to increase their money market fund holdings during 2026, compared with 9% planning to reduce them, a ratio of three to one. Another 62% expect to keep holdings unchanged. By contrast, views on overall cash balances were more mixed: 29% expect balances to rise over the next six months, 23% expect them to fall and 48% expect them to remain steady.

Those figures suggest treasurers are not simply stockpiling cash. Instead, many appear to be reassessing where liquidity sits and how it is deployed, with money market funds continuing to play a central role in short-term cash management even as underlying cash levels remain less predictable.

AI is also gaining ground, though adoption remains at an early stage. Tradeweb said 22% of respondents have already adopted an AI solution to assist with treasury operations. Cash forecasting was the most common use case, cited by 13% of the total sample. That fits with last year’s survey, in which 68% said cash forecasting would be a main area of focus for AI in liquidity management.

The emphasis on forecasting is telling. In a more volatile environment, the immediate value of AI is not abstract automation but better visibility over cash positions and faster interpretation of changing inflows, outflows and funding needs.

Interest in newer liquidity tools is also beginning to emerge. One in four respondents, or 25%, said they were very to moderately interested in using tokenised money market funds, while 19% expressed the same level of interest in using stablecoins for liquidity management. Those are still minority positions, but they suggest digital cash instruments are moving into mainstream treasury evaluation rather than remaining a fringe topic.

Technology projects remain another priority, though not at the levels seen in 2023 and 2024. Tradeweb found that 34% of companies are currently undergoing a treasury technology project, while 11% expect to start one during 2026. Within that, 19% plan to undertake a new treasury management system implementation or migration this year.

Commenting on the findings, Laurent Descout, chief executive and co-founder of Neo, noted they reflect the pressure many finance teams are now facing as geopolitical tension feeds through into day-to-day treasury management. “Those same tensions are also driving currency volatility, adding another layer of complexity for teams managing cash across markets,” he said. “In this environment, accurate cash forecasting and strong oversight of treasury are essential.”

Overall, the survey suggests treasury teams are responding to a more unstable operating climate with a mix of caution and modernisation: holding firm on liquidity tools, investing selectively in technology and starting to test where AI and digital assets might fit into day-to-day cash management.

 

European banks weigh crypto threat to payment revenues

European banks with large corporate cash management operations could face the greatest pressure if digital money gains ground in business payments, according to analysts at RBC Capital Markets, who identify HSBC and Deutsche Bank as among the most exposed.

In a note based on a survey of 18 European banks, RBC said cross-border payments are seen as the main near-term use case for digital money by 72% of respondents. The analysts described corporate payments as the digital money application “nearest to market”, suggesting the first meaningful impact on banks is likely to come through transaction banking rather than more speculative crypto activity.

That matters because corporate payments remain a profitable and strategically important part of many universal banking models. RBC said highly exposed banks could lose up to 7% of revenue, depending on how far digital money adoption develops. The risks include lower fee income and higher funding costs if payments and liquidity activity begin to migrate away from traditional bank channels.

HSBC and Deutsche Bank stand out because corporate payments account for 10% or more of group revenue, making them more sensitive to any shift in client behaviour. BNP Paribas also has a sizeable corporate payments business, though RBC said it is less material as a share of the wider group.

Even so, the survey suggests most banks do not yet see digital assets as an immediate core threat. Some 83% of respondents said they do not regard digital assets as a core offering or a substitute for services they already provide. Demand also appears patchy. Two-thirds (67%) said demand for stablecoins remains limited, while all respondents described the current impact of stablecoins on liquidity and treasury management as negligible.

That combination points to a market still in its early stages. Banks can see where pressure may eventually emerge, particularly in cross-border corporate payments, but most are not yet facing meaningful balance-sheet or revenue disruption from digital assets.

At the same time, lenders are not standing still. RBC noted that banks including Deutsche Bank, Barclays and BNP Paribas are participating in bank-led stablecoin groups, reflecting a wider effort to build a role in digital money infrastructure rather than simply defend existing payment rails.

The result is a familiar strategic tension for transaction banks: digital assets may still be small in treasury and liquidity management today, but the institutions with the most to lose from disruption are also among those now trying to shape how the market develops.

 

AI and volatility redraw CFO remit

CFOs are being pulled into a wider leadership role as AI, geopolitical disruption and workforce strain reshape how companies make decisions, allocate capital and judge performance. New guidance from Gartner argues that finance leaders need to develop seven future-focused behaviours if they are to remain central to strategy and execution. The areas it highlights range from data governance and AI oversight to board engagement, talent development and stricter discipline around technology spending.

“A constellation of macro trends is upending traditional approaches to value creation,” said Emily Riley, vice president analyst in the Gartner Finance practice, who notes that finance leaders who adapt fastest will be better placed to deal with rising volatility and growing expectations from chief executives and boards.

Much of the change revolves around AI. The guidance argues that CFOs can no longer treat data quality and model oversight as narrow technical issues. Instead, they are being pushed into a broader enterprise role, covering both the integrity of the data feeding AI systems and the way those systems shape financial decisions. “AI is redefining how financial decisions get made, which makes ensuring the data that feeds those models, and how they’re applied, a fiduciary imperative for CFOs,” said Riley.

That same logic extends to investment decisions. Finance leaders are being urged to resist broad, unfocused AI experimentation and concentrate resources on use cases with clearer value. In a more difficult economic environment, that places CFOs in a stronger gatekeeping position over how much is spent, where it is spent and how returns are measured.

Business model pressure is another key theme. Rapid technology shifts, geopolitical friction and changing customer demand are making older sources of growth less dependable, while new ones are proving harder to assess. That leaves CFOs with a more active role in challenging long-held commercial assumptions rather than simply tracking performance against them.

Relations with the board are changing too. As familiar performance markers lose some of their explanatory power, finance chiefs are increasingly expected to help directors interpret unfamiliar risks and emerging trade-offs. Riley said: “The boardroom is looking for clarity, and CFOs are uniquely positioned to provide it, even when the message is uncomfortable.”

Workforce dynamics also feature heavily in the guidance. Constant disruption is wearing down teams, making empathy and transparency more important parts of finance leadership. At the same time, the next generation of finance leaders is likely to be defined less by traditional finance tenure and more by agility, cross-functional range and comfort with technology.

Overall, the message is that the CFO role is becoming both broader and more exposed. Technical finance expertise still matters, but advantage increasingly rests on judgment, adaptability and the ability to connect data, strategy, technology and people in a less predictable environment.

 

UK rebound faces energy price drag

The UK economy grew more strongly than expected in February, but Goldman Sachs Research expects that momentum to fade as higher oil and gas prices weigh on activity through the rest of 2026. UK GDP rose 0.5% month on month in February, well ahead of consensus expectations for a 0.1% increase. The gain was broad-based. Services output rose 0.5% from January, production also increased 0.5%, and construction output climbed 1.0%.

The stronger data prompted Goldman Sachs Research to raise its forecast for first-quarter 2026 GDP growth to 0.6% quarter on quarter, up from 0.2% previously. Even so, James Moberly, senior UK economist at Goldman Sachs Research, said the stronger February figure does not change the broader direction of travel. “We continue to expect a slowdown in the sequential pace of growth in the rest of 2026 given the impact of rising oil and gas prices,” Moberly writes.

Energy costs can feed through the economy quickly, hitting both household spending and business costs. Goldman Sachs Research noted that studies suggest every 10% rise in energy prices lowers the level of UK output by an average of 0.1% to 0.2%.

Moberly also suggests the stronger first-quarter data is unlikely to shift the Bank of England materially on its own. “The latest numbers suggest notably stronger growth than the Bank of England had anticipated for the first quarter,” he writes, but adds that the impact on monetary policy is likely to be limited by the weaker outlook since the start of the war in Iran on 28 February and by the Bank’s focus on underlying measures of growth rather than more volatile headline prints.

For treasury and finance teams, the picture is increasingly mixed. February’s data shows the UK economy entered the spring with more momentum than expected, but the outlook is becoming less supportive as energy prices rise and growth expectations soften. That leaves businesses balancing stronger recent activity against the risk of weaker demand, tighter margins and a less straightforward interest rate path later in the year.

 

Machinery data points to firmer China rebound

Real-time machinery data from SANY Heavy Industry suggests China’s economy made a stronger start to 2026, with activity picking up across infrastructure, manufacturing and trade logistics in the first quarter. The company’s latest Excavator Index, produced with CCTV Finance, draws on data from more than 900,000 pieces of equipment and is designed to act as a real-time gauge of activity in the physical economy. In March, the national equipment operating rate reached 41.49%, up 16.84 percentage points from the previous month.

That improvement broadly matches official indicators showing firmer momentum. China’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index rose to 50.4 in March, while industrial added value increased 6.3% year on year in January and February.

Port activity was one of the clearest signs of strengthening trade flows. SANY said port equipment workload rose 17.89% year on year, with stackers posting a 10.99 percentage point jump in utilisation. Those figures suggest China’s logistics hubs were operating at a higher intensity as cross-border supply chains recovered.

Regionally, central China recorded the highest overall operating rate at 40.74%. Hoisting equipment utilisation there reached 71.14%, driven by projects linked to higher-end manufacturing, including new energy batteries and semiconductors.

Western China emerged as the main investment growth area. Ningxia recorded a 36.78% year-on-year increase in workload, while Chongqing posted an 18.14% rise, reflecting heavier activity in water, energy and computing infrastructure projects.

Elsewhere, eastern China led the country in concrete machinery utilisation at 43.40%, which SANY said points to continued focus on urban renewal and more complex infrastructure work in the Yangtze River Delta and Greater Bay Area.

For companies with exposure to China, the data is useful because it offers a more immediate read on physical activity than many conventional indicators. Stronger machinery use does not guarantee a broad-based recovery, but it does suggest more momentum in construction, industrial investment and trade-related infrastructure than headline sentiment alone might imply.

 

J.P. Morgan unifies trade and working capital tools

J.P. Morgan Payments is bringing its trade and working capital products into a single digital platform, in a move that reflects rising demand from corporates for more joined-up visibility across cash flow, supplier finance and receivables management. The Working Capital Accelerator is designed to centralise tools including dynamic discounting, supply chain finance and receivables financing, with further products due to be added over the next year. The bank said the platform gives clients unified access to working capital data and products in one place, rather than across separate systems and reporting structures.

Dynamic discounting is one of the more immediate treasury use cases. The offering allows companies to use surplus cash to pay suppliers early in exchange for discounts, giving treasury teams another route to improve cash deployment while supporting supplier liquidity. Supply chain finance and receivables financing broaden that proposition by helping companies manage both sides of the working capital cycle more actively.

“Through our new platform, clients can turn working capital management into a competitive advantage,” said Heather Crowley, global head of trade and working capital product at J.P. Morgan Payments. “Working Capital Accelerator gives clients a streamlined, fully integrated, data-driven solution to unlock and optimise their cash conversion cycle.”

Operationally, the platform is available in more than 60 markets and 10 languages, and can be integrated with enterprise resource planning systems including Oracle Fusion and SAP. J.P. Morgan said that is intended to help clients manage local requirements such as tax rules while improving data handling and reporting.

Taken together, the launch points to a broader shift in working capital management. Large companies are placing more emphasis on real-time visibility and integrated decision-making across payables, receivables and liquidity, rather than treating those areas as separate processes.

 

UAE central bank advances national e-KYC platform

The Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE) is developing a nationwide electronic know-your-customer platform as part of its wider financial infrastructure overhaul, in a move aimed at cutting duplication in compliance processes and speeding up digital onboarding for banks, fintechs and their customers.

The central bank has appointed Norbloc AB as technology partner for the project, which sits within the UAE’s Financial Infrastructure Transformation programme. The platform is intended to improve both KYC and know-your-business processes by combining automated workflows with trusted data sources, while also supporting due diligence and stronger alignment with anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing requirements.

A critical objective is to reduce the operational drag created when financial institutions repeatedly collect and verify the same customer information. The central bank said the unified platform would help lower compliance costs, reduce turnaround times and create a more consistent national approach to onboarding individuals and businesses.

The design also reflects a push to balance efficiency with tighter data controls. According to the CBUAE, the platform will use a privacy-by-design model that allows secure data sharing only with explicit customer consent, with the aim of protecting confidentiality while improving access to verified information across the financial system.

“The development of the e-KYC Platform represents a strategic transformation towards a more efficient and resilient financial ecosystem,” said H.E. Saif Humaid Al Dhaheri, assistant governor for banking operations and support services at the CBUAE. “Through this platform, we are enabling the sector to move away from resource-intensive traditional processes towards progressive digital models that accelerate access to financial services and reduce operational costs.”

The project is likely to matter most in the practical details of execution. If rolled out effectively, a unified e-KYC utility could ease onboarding friction, reduce repeated documentation requests and improve the efficiency of bank-fintech interactions, while giving firms operating in the UAE a faster route into regulated financial services.

 

Same Day ACH tops US$1 trillion again as network growth accelerates

Same Day ACH drove a solid start to 2026 for the US ACH Network, with first-quarter volume rising 23.6% year on year to 403 million payments and value climbing 22.1% to US$1.1 trillion. It was the second consecutive quarter in which Same Day ACH value exceeded US$1 trillion, underlining continued demand for faster account-to-account payments. 

Across the wider network, total ACH volume rose 4.8% to 8.9 billion payments in the first quarter, while total value increased 9.3% to US$24.1 trillion. The mix remained heavily weighted towards debits, which accounted for 5 billion payments, with credits at 4 billion. 

Business payments were a notable source of momentum. B2B volume grew 9.4% to nearly 2.1 billion payments, up from 1.9 billion a year earlier. That matters because it suggests ACH is continuing to deepen its role in corporate payment flows at a time when finance teams are under pressure to reduce cheque use, improve straight-through processing and gain better control over payment timing. 

“The strong growth in both Same Day ACH and B2B payments reflect the strength of the ACH Network,” commented Jane Larimer, president and chief executive of Nacha. “ACH payments are moving the nation’s businesses away from checks, and Same Day ACH is helping to meet the demand for faster payments.”

The network’s broader transaction data also pointed to steady expansion across major use cases. Internet payments rose 5.4% to 2.9 billion, direct deposit increased 1.7% to 2.2 billion, healthcare payments rose 4.9% to 131.1 million, and peer-to-peer transactions jumped 18.5% to 129.3 million. Together, those figures suggest ACH growth is being supported by both corporate and consumer activity, with faster settlement becoming a bigger part of the mix. 

 

Basware launches AI training course for AP teams

Basware has launched a certification programme aimed at helping accounts payable professionals work more effectively with AI agents, reflecting a broader shift in finance teams towards oversight, exception handling and workflow management rather than manual processing alone. The training is designed for AP clerks, invoice controllers and finance team leaders, and focuses on how AI agents can be used within day-to-day invoice workflows while keeping human judgment in place. Basware said the course covers what AI agents can and cannot do, which tasks remain human-owned, and how finance staff can work with AI-assisted processes more confidently.

The launch follows a Basware survey in February that pointed to both interest and uncertainty around agentic AI in finance. Two-thirds, or 66%, of finance leaders said there is more hype around agentic AI than around any previous technology shift, while 75% said they are still working out the best way to use it.

That tension is becoming more common across finance functions. AI adoption is moving forward, but many teams are still trying to define where automation ends and human control begins, particularly in processes such as invoice coding, routing and approvals.

Basware said the programme takes a practical, non-technical approach and is structured in three parts: understanding AI, applying it in current workflows and preparing for future finance roles.

The bigger significance lies in how finance work is changing. As AI tools become more embedded in operational processes, training is starting to shift from simple software use towards managing automated decision-making inside core workflows.

 

Nomentia partners with SkySparc on treasury delivery support

Nomentia has partnered with SkySparc to expand advisory and implementation support for treasury and cash management projects, as corporates place greater emphasis on delivery quality and local expertise alongside technology selection. The partnership is designed to give Nomentia customers additional support in areas such as cash forecasting, in-house banking and hedge accounting. SkySparc will provide advisory input and hands-on implementation help, with the aim of improving project execution and aligning treasury systems more closely with business requirements.

That reflects a broader trend in treasury technology projects. The challenge for corporates is often no longer just choosing a platform, but making sure implementation is properly scoped, integrated and governed so the system delivers the intended operational benefits.

Nomentia said its platform is used by more than 1,400 clients and includes tools for payments, cash visibility, liquidity management and risk oversight. The system also integrates with enterprise resource planning systems, banks and data providers, with features including workflows, bank connectivity and AI-led cash forecasting.

The tie-up will focus on the Nordics, UK, Benelux and DACH regions, where both companies said they will strengthen local support and provide on-site delivery where needed alongside remote models.

 

L&G brings liquidity funds onto tokenised network

L&G has made its liquidity funds available through the Calastone Tokenised Distribution Network, extending tokenised access to a fund range that manages more than £50bn in liquidity assets. The move means investors can access L&G’s US dollar, euro and sterling liquidity strategies in tokenised form through blockchain-enabled infrastructure, while the funds themselves continue to operate within existing administration and settlement processes. Calastone, part of SS&C Technologies, provides the technology for token creation, order routing, trade aggregation, reconciliation and on-chain settlement.

Rather than creating a separate digital-native product, L&G is using the network to offer tokenised share classes of existing liquidity funds, with permissioned access for authorised users inside a regulated framework. That allows the manager to widen distribution without changing the experience for investors who continue to access the funds through traditional channels.

The development is another sign that tokenisation is moving deeper into mainstream short-term cash products. Liquidity funds are already a core tool for managing surplus cash, and tokenised access raises the prospect of faster transfers and broader connectivity with digital distribution channels.

The tokenised funds will initially be available on Ethereum and EVM-compatible blockchains, with additional chains expected over time. More broadly, the launch shows how asset managers are starting to test whether familiar treasury instruments can be adapted for digital infrastructure without adding significant operational friction.

 

Banco Yetu adopts Surecomp platform in Angola

Banco Yetu has selected Surecomp’s RIVO platform to support its trade finance operations, as the Angolan bank looks to improve workflow efficiency, strengthen controls and handle expected growth in cross-border business. The bank said it will use the platform to automate more of its trade finance processes, improve risk and compliance oversight, and give clients faster processing and greater visibility over transactions. Surecomp said the system is designed to reduce manual effort and provide stronger operational data through integration-ready architecture and AI-supported workflows.

Banco Yetu expects the platform to help improve turnaround times while supporting a more digital operating model for its trade finance business. The implementation is due to be completed quickly, with the bank expected to go live in two months.

Trade finance is a core part of Banco Yetu’s strategy, with the project tied to a wider push to digitalise the business. Angola is also being positioned for stronger cross-border trade growth, and the bank is looking to build out its capabilities accordingly. RIVO is hosted on Amazon Web Services and is aimed at improving process automation and customer engagement in trade finance.

 

Amex to buy Hyper in push for AI-led expense tools

American Express has agreed to acquire Hyper, an AI-focused expense management company, as it looks to deepen its commercial payments and software capabilities ahead of the launch of a new expense management platform later this year. The deal brings in a team specialising in agentic AI tools designed to automate parts of the expense process that have traditionally required manual review and employee intervention. Hyper’s technology has focused on tasks such as automatically categorising and filing expenses, checking claims against budgets and policies, and issuing reminders when submissions are overdue.

Expense management is becoming a crucial battleground in commercial payments. Card providers and software groups are trying to embed more automation into finance workflows rather than simply processing transactions.

American Express and Hyper already had an existing relationship. In 2024, the two companies launched the Hypercard Rewards American Express card, which used AI-powered expense agents through the Agile Partner Platform. The acquisition suggests Amex now wants to bring more of that capability in-house.

Strategically, the move fits a wider push by Amex to build more AI into its commercial services business. The company has said it plans to integrate newer AI technology into products and services to help businesses automate processes and operate more efficiently. Buying Hyper gives it additional talent and product capability in a part of the finance stack where automation is increasingly tied to cost control, compliance and employee productivity.

Founded in 2022, Hyper has concentrated on turning expense management into a more autonomous workflow. The transaction is expected to close in the second quarter of 2026, subject to customary conditions.

 

MUFG extends payments overhaul to US ACH

MUFG is extending its payments modernisation programme in the US by selecting Finastra’s Global PAYplus platform to support ACH processing, adding another layer to a multi-year effort to unify payment operations across major markets. The move follows earlier payments architecture changes in Japan and Europe and broadens MUFG’s use of a common platform across three regions. According to Finastra, the US deployment is intended to simplify the bank’s payments landscape and improve performance at scale.

A central part of the strategy is consolidation. MUFG is bringing ACH and cross-border payment processing onto a single ISO 20022-native platform, rather than maintaining separate legacy systems. That approach is aimed at reducing operational complexity and giving the bank more flexibility as payment formats, regulatory requirements and customer expectations continue to evolve.

The bank’s wider modernisation effort already appears to be producing operational gains. Finastra said straight-through processing rates now exceed 95% across MUFG’s global operations, suggesting the bank is achieving a higher degree of automation in domestic and international payment flows.

The US ACH rollout also highlights how infrastructure priorities are shifting inside transaction banking. Banks are increasingly trying to standardise around configurable, multi-rail platforms that can support both domestic clearing and cross-border processing within the same architecture.