Global business activity edges higher in January

Business activity across major advanced economies expanded at the start of 2026, but the pace and drivers of growth diverged across regions, with the UK showing a sharper acceleration while the eurozone and US recorded more modest gains, according to flash PMI data from S&P Global.

In the eurozone, private sector output continued to rise but at an unchanged and relatively subdued pace. The composite output index held at 51.5 in January, signalling modest expansion for a 13th consecutive month. Services activity eased to a four-month low at 51.9, while manufacturing output returned to marginal growth at 50.2 after contracting in December. The headline manufacturing PMI also improved to 49.4, though it remained in contraction territory.

Underlying demand showed signs of softening. New orders increased for a sixth consecutive month but at the slowest pace since September 2025, with export orders continuing to decline. Employment fell for the first time in four months, with job cuts concentrated in Germany, while inflation pressures intensified, particularly in manufacturing input costs and services selling prices. Business confidence, however, strengthened to a 20-month high, suggesting firms expect conditions to improve despite near-term headwinds.

The UK stood out with a stronger rebound in activity. The composite output index rose to 53.9 in January from 51.4 in December, the highest level since April 2024. Services drove the acceleration, with the services business activity index climbing to 54.3, while manufacturing output rose modestly to 51.5. New orders increased for a third time in four months, and export sales improved to the strongest pace in 18 months, led by manufacturing.

Despite stronger activity, UK firms continued to cut staff, citing rising payroll costs and subdued economic conditions. Input price inflation remained elevated, driven largely by wage pressures, transport costs and raw material prices, with companies passing on higher costs through faster increases in selling prices. Business optimism improved to a 16-month high, supported by investment plans and improved sales pipelines, although concerns over geopolitics, productivity and business costs persisted.

In the US, growth remained steady but subdued. The composite output index edged up to 52.8 from 52.7 in December, driven by faster manufacturing growth, where output rose to a five-month high. Services activity was unchanged at 52.5. New order growth improved from a 20-month low but remained below recent averages, while exports declined sharply across both goods and services.

US employment was broadly stagnant for a second month, reflecting softer demand and rising costs. Input cost inflation remained elevated, particularly in manufacturing, where tariffs continued to drive price pressures. Selling prices also rose at one of the strongest rates of the past three years, although services inflation moderated amid competitive pressures. Business confidence stayed positive but dipped slightly, with firms citing political uncertainty, higher prices and policy risks as constraints on sentiment.

Across regions, the January data highlight a common pattern of continued expansion but uneven momentum. The UK appears to be benefiting from a release of pent-up demand and improved confidence following recent policy clarity, while the eurozone and US are seeing more muted growth and lingering headwinds from weak exports and cost pressures.

For corporate treasurers, the divergence in regional momentum and persistent inflation signals point to a complex start to the year. Stronger UK activity could support cash flows and investment plans, but elevated input and labour costs may continue to pressure margins. In the eurozone and US, softer demand and falling exports underscore the importance of liquidity planning and scenario analysis, particularly as pricing pressures and geopolitical risks remain a key uncertainty for 2026.

 

Trade leaders remain optimistic despite policy uncertainty

Global trade and logistics executives remain broadly optimistic about growth in 2026 despite persistent policy uncertainty and structural disruptions to supply chains, according to research from DP World’s Global Trade Observatory Annual Outlook Report.

The survey of more than 3,500 senior supply chain and logistics leaders finds that 54% expect trade growth to accelerate this year compared with last year, while a further 40% expect growth to remain broadly stable. This positive outlook comes despite 53% of respondents anticipating high or very high policy uncertainty over the coming year, underlining a gap between macro risks and corporate growth expectations.

Strategic supply chain restructuring is a central theme. More than half of executives (51%) cited supplier diversification as one of their top three strategic priorities for 2026. When asked about the motivations for diversification, respondents pointed to new market entry (16%), technology-enabled change (15%), and improved agility or resilience (14%), suggesting companies are actively redesigning supply networks rather than reacting defensively to disruption.

Growth drivers over the next one to three years are similarly outward-looking. New markets and consumers were identified by 46% of executives as a key driver of expansion, followed by deploying AI (43%) and improving infrastructure and transport capacity (42%). The findings indicate that technology and physical infrastructure are increasingly viewed as critical enablers of trade growth, alongside geographic expansion.

Infrastructure investment priorities reflect this shift. Warehousing and logistics hubs were selected by 39% of respondents as one of the top three infrastructure investments required to support trade and logistics in their markets. This highlights the strategic role of warehousing in modern supply chains, where location, capacity and specialisation can influence distribution speed, resilience and market access. Respondents also emphasised the growing importance of specialised facilities, such as cold storage and high-security warehousing for high-value goods.

Customs processes emerged as a key operational constraint. Every surveyed executive cited customs as one of the top three causes of delays and disruption to their business, with 60% identifying it as the leading factor. This points to ongoing friction at borders even as companies diversify routes and markets, and suggests digitalisation and regulatory reform remain critical to improving trade flows.

Overall, the survey indicates a structural shift in how organisations view logistics and supply chains today. Rather than treating logistics as a support function, executives increasingly see it as a strategic driver of growth, competitiveness and resilience. Investment plans span both physical assets, such as warehousing and transport capacity, and digital capabilities, including AI and technology-enabled supply chain management.

 

Instant euro payments set to dominate European transactions by 2035

Instant euro payments are set to become the dominant form of electronic credit transfer in Europe over the next decade, according to new research from Celent. The report, authored by Zil Bareisis and Gareth Lodge, finds that regulatory mandates under the Instant Payments Regulation (IPR) are accelerating adoption and reshaping how banks, payment institutions and corporate users view real-time payments.

Celent surveyed more than 100 financial institutions across 10 European markets, including banks, electronic money institutions (EMIs) and payment institutions (PIs). The findings suggest banks are broadly on track to meet regulatory requirements, with all bank respondents reporting compliance with the January 2025 mandate. More than half (55%) are already compliant with the July 2027 requirements, and 95% to 97% expect to be ready by then.

Non-bank institutions appear less prepared. Around 20% of EMIs and PIs expect to miss the July 2027 deadline by three to six months, reflecting lower levels of investment and operational readiness compared with banks. Spending patterns also differ sharply. Sixty-one percent of banks plan to spend more than €20m on compliance and implementation, including 23% allocating €50m-€100m, while most EMIs and PIs expect to spend less than €10m.

The report highlights structural changes enabled by the regulation, including the potential for EMIs to become direct participants in SEPA clearing systems following changes to the Settlement Finality Directive. Forty-one percent of respondents said they intend to pursue direct participation, with 12% already connected.

Industry sentiment towards instant payments is broadly positive. Seventy-three percent of respondents believe SCT Inst will benefit the industry overall, while 69% expect customer benefits and 65% expect institutional gains. Corporate banks are currently leading engagement on use cases, with 63% already working with clients to explore applications, compared with 40% of retail banks.

Looking ahead, Celent expects a rapid shift in payment volumes. Respondents forecast that by 2035 at least two-thirds of credit transfers will be instant, with an average estimate of 75%. The research suggests SCT Inst could overtake traditional credit transfers by 2030 and represent 18% of all non-cash payments by 2035. In a more aggressive migration scenario, where a portion of card and direct debit transactions also move to instant account-to-account payments, volumes could exceed 90 billion transactions by 2035.

Longer-term developments, including agentic commerce, stablecoins and a potential digital euro, are expected to further influence adoption and volumes, increasing the need for institutional agility.

Commenting on the Celent research, Pratiksha Pathak, partner and head of payments at RedCompass Labs, noted: “For corporate clients in particular, seamless real-time euro payments are fast becoming the baseline. If you don’t offer instant payments, your customers will move to a bank that does.” She added that non-EU SEPA banks face growing pressure to keep pace as customer expectations for speed and certainty continue to rise.

 

AI reshapes CFO investor relations priorities

Chief financial officers are spending more time on investor relations as AI tools transform how investors conduct research and engage with companies, according to Gartner. A Gartner survey of 146 CFOs conducted between October and December 2025 found that 35% or more reported an increase in the volume, frequency and time sensitivity of investor communications in 2025 compared with the previous year. The findings suggest that investor expectations are shifting as AI accelerates access to information and market analysis.

Dymah Paige, director analyst in the Gartner Finance practice, said the rise of AI-driven research tools is changing how organisations manage their external communications. “It is going to become increasingly difficult for organisations to control their narrative and influence investors with manual methods alone,” she said. “To keep pace, CFOs should be considering private AI solutions available on the market today that can help them to spend more of their time and effort on higher impact priorities.”

Paige added that institutional investors are increasingly integrating AI into their research workflows. “Many institutional investors are using or evaluating AI tools in their investment and research processes,” she said. “If CFOs want to communicate to the markets effectively, while protecting their organisations against the hallucinations of public AI-powered answer engines, they must adapt their investor communications strategies to AI, as well as humans.”

Gartner’s analysts argue that finance teams can also use AI to improve their own investor relations processes. “Companies can leverage these tools off the shelf and start to deploy right away, but in private, contained, and traceable environments. Some of the world’s biggest companies are already using these tools in their IR activities,” Paige said.

For finance leaders, the shift highlights a growing need to manage investor communications in an AI-driven information environment. As AI-generated insights become more prevalent in markets, CFOs may need to invest in technology, data governance and messaging frameworks to ensure accurate, timely and consistent communication with stakeholders.

 

HKMA sets out roadmap to modernise Hong Kong trade finance

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has published its Project Cargox Recommendation Report, outlining 20 recommendations and a development roadmap to modernise Hong Kong’s trade finance ecosystem and strengthen its position as a global trade finance hub. Project Cargox brings together an expert panel of 24 industry specialists from banks, data providers, insurers, government bodies and international organisations. The panel concluded its work in December 2025, providing strategic guidance on how Hong Kong can accelerate the digitisation of trade finance and improve access to financing, particularly for smaller firms.

The recommendations are structured around three strategic pillars: data, infrastructure and connectivity. Under the data pillar, the report focuses on integrating government cargo and trade data with financial infrastructure to enable automated trade finance processes. Access to historical trade transaction data is intended to improve banks’ ability to assess corporate creditworthiness, which could expand the availability of trade finance for small and medium-sized enterprises.

The infrastructure pillar centres on developing digital trade infrastructure to enable paperless trade in Hong Kong and with overseas partners. This includes supporting the digitisation of trade documents and processes, which could reduce manual workflows, operational risk and processing times across the trade finance value chain.

The connectivity pillar prioritises cross-border integration, with a focus on linking Hong Kong’s trade finance systems with counterparts in Chinese Mainland and ASEAN markets. Policy measures are also proposed to help maintain Hong Kong’s competitiveness as a trade and trade finance centre amid growing regional competition.

The report sets out a roadmap for implementing the recommendations through pilot trials and collaboration between public and private sector participants. The HKMA is expected to play a coordinating role in driving these initiatives, working with industry stakeholders to test digital trade solutions and expand data-sharing frameworks.

The recommendations signal a push towards more data-driven, automated and interoperable trade finance processes in Asia. For corporates, greater data integration and digital infrastructure could improve access to trade financing, streamline documentation and enhance visibility across supply chains, while stronger regional connectivity may support cross-border trade flows and reduce friction in financing transactions.

 

Swedish economic recovery driven by domestic demand despite tariff risks

Sweden’s economic recovery is set to continue despite rising uncertainty over potential new tariffs, according to Swedbank’s latest Economic Outlook. The bank expects domestic demand, particularly household consumption and public investment, to drive growth, although external risks could weigh on the pace of recovery.

Swedbank forecasts Sweden’s economy will grow by 2.6% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027, supported by rising household purchasing power, fiscal stimulus and improving labour market conditions. Lower inflation, higher wages and tax cuts are expected to lift household purchasing power by almost 3% in 2026, providing scope for stronger consumption.

However, the outlook is clouded by geopolitical tensions and the threat of tariffs against EU member states. Mattias Persson, group chief economist at Swedbank, warns that external risks could undermine the recovery. “The Swedish economic recovery will continue despite the threat of new tariffs from the US administration. It’s the domestic economy that will drive the recovery in Sweden. But if tariffs are imposed, together with potential retaliation, the risk is that they will weaken the recovery. Overall, downside risks dominate,” he says.

The labour market is expected to improve gradually as the recovery gains traction, although unemployment remains elevated. Swedbank forecasts the unemployment rate will fall to 7.8% by the end of 2027, with further policy measures needed to address structural unemployment.

Housing market conditions are expected to remain subdued in the near term due to a large supply of unsold apartments, with a gradual recovery later in the decade as household finances improve and mortgage regulations ease. Swedbank expects Swedish house prices to rise by around 4% in 2027.

Inflation is projected to remain below the Riksbank’s 2% target, supported by a temporary reduction in VAT on food and a stronger krona. Swedbank expects the central bank to keep policy rates on hold for an extended period. “Stronger Swedish growth will mean that the Riksbank has no reason to hike the policy rate in the near future. The recession won’t be over until towards the end of 2026, when resource utilisation will have normalised, and we won’t see a clear economic upswing until the end of 2027,” Persson says.

Fiscal policy is expected to become more expansionary, with additional measures in the 2026 budget and increased public investment, particularly in defence and infrastructure. Swedbank expects these measures to support both consumption and investment, underpinning Sweden’s recovery amid a complex global backdrop.

 

UK regulators clarify rules for commercial open banking payments

UK regulators have issued a joint statement providing clarity on the pricing model being developed for commercial variable recurring payments (cVRPs), an emerging open banking technology designed to enable secure, recurring payments authorised by consumers.

The Financial Conduct Authority and the Payment Systems Regulator said they will not, at this stage, prioritise an investigation under the Competition Act 1998 into the centralised ‘access fee’ pricing model proposed by the UK Payments Initiative. The Competition and Markets Authority confirmed it does not intend to take a different position based on the information currently available.

cVRPs allow consumers to grant trusted third parties permission to initiate recurring payments on their behalf, offering an alternative to traditional card-based or direct debit payments. Regulators said the technology could give consumers greater control over payments while offering businesses more flexible and potentially lower-cost payment options.

The joint statement is intended to provide certainty for UKPI to continue developing its commercial model, including use cases in regulated financial services, utilities and public sector payments. Regulators said this clarification should help reduce uncertainty for firms collaborating on open banking infrastructure and encourage innovation that could benefit consumers and the wider economy.

The current approach is described as a temporary bridge to a broader legislative framework expected by the end of 2026. The non-prioritisation position will apply until the framework is implemented or until July 2027, whichever comes first.

During this period, the FCA and PSR will continue to monitor market developments, review any changes to the pricing methodology and expect UKPI to submit final governance documentation. All three competition authorities said they may revisit their approach if new information emerges or if the anticipated legislative framework is delayed beyond July 2027.

The clarification comes as policymakers seek to accelerate adoption of open banking payment use cases while balancing competition concerns, governance requirements and consumer protection.

 

Şişecam issues $500m seven-year Eurobond to refinance near-term liabilities

Şişecam has completed a $500m seven-year Eurobond issuance through its UK subsidiary, Şişecam UK PLC, as it moves to extend its debt maturity profile and refinance upcoming obligations. The bonds carry a fixed coupon of 8.3750% and were placed with international funding and financial institutions following investor meetings in London involving more than 60 investors. Total demand reached $1.7bn, indicating a solid order book for the transaction.

Citigroup Global Markets Limited, BNP Paribas, J.P. Morgan Securities plc and Emirates NBD Bank PJSC acted as mandated lead arrangers for the issuance. Şişecam’s credit ratings were affirmed at existing levels, with the group rated B by Fitch and B2 by Moody’s.

Proceeds from the deal will be used to refinance the remaining $372m outstanding under the company’s 2026 notes, as well as selected short-term financial liabilities. The issuance is intended to lengthen Şişecam’s debt maturity profile and support its broader liquidity management strategy by shifting a portion of short-term obligations into longer-term funding.

The transaction follows a period of active capital markets issuance by the Turkish glass manufacturer. In 2025, Şişecam issued a total of $1.5bn in Eurobonds, comprising $675m with five-year maturities and $825m with eight-year maturities. That issuance attracted close to $5bn in demand and was reported as the largest corporate bond issue in Türkiye’s history.

The latest bond adds to the company’s international funding programme and reflects continued engagement with global debt investors. The refinancing of near-term maturities reduces rollover risk and provides additional headroom for capital expenditure and strategic investments.

The transaction highlights ongoing appetite for emerging market corporate credit and the use of international bond markets to manage maturity profiles and funding diversification. The ability to refinance upcoming maturities well ahead of schedule can provide greater resilience against market volatility, currency risk and shifting rate environments, while also supporting longer-term capital planning.

 

TreviPay extends invoice-based payments model to Visa issuers

TreviPay has launched a Pay by Invoice solution for Visa-issuing banks, aimed at expanding invoice-based B2B payment capabilities within card network infrastructure and addressing persistent fragmentation in corporate payment methods.

The solution combines TreviPay’s order-to-cash automation platform with Visa’s commercial payment capabilities, allowing banks to offer issuer-financed, invoice-based payment options alongside existing card and account-to-account rails. The model enables suppliers to receive early payment while buyers settle invoices on negotiated credit terms, such as 30, 60, or 90 days, with banks providing the underlying credit.

The launch targets a B2B payments market where a significant share of transactions remain manual or non-digital. Research cited by TreviPay indicates that 26% of corporate payments are still made by cheque or legacy ACH processes, while 78% of B2B buyers require greater control or customisation in invoicing and payment workflows. Net-term payment preferences remain widespread, with 61% of buyers favouring deferred settlement.

For issuing banks, the platform is positioned as a way to convert off-card B2B spend into structured, invoice-based transactions within existing commercial payments frameworks. TreviPay’s onboarding and accounts receivable automation capabilities are intended to reduce integration complexity, while issuers retain control over credit decisions and client relationships.

The development highlights ongoing convergence between card networks, trade credit, and working capital solutions. Invoice-based payment models integrated into card and commercial payment ecosystems could affect how companies manage supplier terms, liquidity, and payment routing decisions. Treasurers may also see increased pressure from banks to shift manual or bilateral invoice processes onto platform-based solutions that offer automated reconciliation and enhanced data visibility.