Markets show early bubble traits but fundamentals remain solid

Global equity markets are displaying some of the same patterns seen in past financial bubbles, but Goldman Sachs Research says the current cycle is still underpinned by strong fundamentals rather than speculation. In its latest paper, Why Global Stocks Are Not Yet in a Bubble, Peter Oppenheimer, Goldman Sachs Research’s chief global equity strategist, argues that while valuations, market concentration, and investor enthusiasm have all risen sharply, the forces driving those gains are materially different from those that led to past crises.

The surge in technology and AI-related stocks has been “driven by fundamental growth rather than irrational speculation about future growth,” Oppenheimer writes. He notes that most large technology companies are profitable, cash-generative, and funding expansion internally rather than relying on debt. This helps keep leverage contained and limits the risk of contagion even if valuations correct.

While some warning signs are emerging, particularly in IPO and M&A activity, today’s market dynamics still fall short of the excesses that defined the dot-com boom. IPO premiums have climbed to around 30% in the US, the highest since the late 1990s, yet far below the surge of speculative listings that accompanied that bubble. Most current capital expenditure in technology, especially around AI and data centres, is being financed through internal cash flow rather than borrowed money. Capex-to-sales ratios have risen but remain well below historic bubble levels.

Goldman Sachs Research also points to important differences in market structure. The top 10 US companies now account for almost a quarter of global equity market value, eight of them in technology. While such concentration is unusual, it is not unprecedented. Earlier periods of sector dominance in energy, transport, and finance often persisted for decades without ending in systemic crisis.

Another distinguishing feature is the widening of equity performance beyond large-cap US technology names. European markets, value stocks, and cyclical industries are beginning to outperform, giving investors more scope to diversify than during previous technology rallies. AI’s growing links to physical infrastructure, resources, and capital goods also tie technology’s fortunes more closely to the broader economy.

Oppenheimer cautions, however, that markets remain vulnerable to a pullback if earnings disappoint or confidence fades. “On balance, valuations are looking increasingly stretched but not yet at the levels that were typical in other bubble periods before they burst,” he writes. “The biggest risk is that earnings disappoint and investors start to question the sustainability of their current rates of return.”

For corporate treasury and finance teams, the findings offer a note of perspective amid volatility. Equity strength continues to support funding conditions, valuations, and balance-sheet flexibility, but rising capital expenditure and lofty expectations could heighten sensitivity to earnings surprises. For now, Goldman’s assessment suggests the cycle remains intact, disciplined, diversified, and not yet speculative.

 

Growth gap widens in October as Eurozone and US accelerate, UK lags behind

Business activity picked up pace across the Eurozone and the United States in October, while the UK’s recovery remained subdued as firms grappled with weak demand and political uncertainty. The latest flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surveys signalled a solid start to the fourth quarter for the global economy, led by a two-and-a-half-year high in Eurozone new orders and the strongest expansion in US output since July. The UK, by contrast, posted only a marginal improvement in private-sector growth.

The HCOB Flash Eurozone Composite PMI Output Index rose to 52.2, up from 51.2 in September and marking a 17-month high. Growth was driven by services, where activity climbed to 52.6, the fastest pace since mid-2024, while manufacturing output edged up to 51.1. New orders increased at their quickest rate since April 2023, supported by domestic demand, although export orders continued to decline slightly.

Germany led the upturn with its strongest output growth in 29 months, while activity outside Germany and France also accelerated. France remained an outlier, recording a fourteenth consecutive monthly contraction. Despite stronger order books, overall sentiment across the bloc softened slightly, with firms citing persistent cost pressures and cautious client spending.

In the UK, the picture was less upbeat. The S&P Global Flash UK Composite PMI rose to 51.1 from 50.1, signalling only a modest uptick in output. Manufacturing returned to growth for the first time in a year, helped by restocking and tentative domestic demand, but service-sector expansion slowed again. New business volumes improved slightly, yet export sales continued to fall sharply, reflecting weaker global demand and the impact of US tariffs.

Input cost inflation eased to its lowest level in 11 months, leading to slower price increases for services. The pace of job shedding also moderated, suggesting stabilisation rather than renewed strength. Survey respondents pointed to fragile consumer confidence and delayed corporate decisions ahead of next month’s Budget.

The US delivered the most convincing growth signal. The S&P Global Flash US Composite PMI rose from 53.9 to 54.8, the highest since July and well above the third-quarter average. New business expanded at the fastest rate of 2025 so far, led by domestic demand in both manufacturing and services. Factories reported their strongest influx of orders in more than a year and a half, though export sales fell sharply amid trade frictions and tariff uncertainty.

Firms cited higher wage bills and tariff-related costs but noted slower increases in selling prices. Business confidence weakened due to policy concerns, offset in part by support from lower interest rates.

Taken together, the October data point to a three-speed global picture: a solid Eurozone rebound driven by services, a resilient US economy still buoyed by domestic spending, and a UK private sector struggling to regain momentum.

 

Siemens and HSBC complete fully digital cross-border guarantee

Siemens AG and HSBC have executed what they describe as the first fully digital, end-to-end indirect guarantee, marking a further step in the digitalisation of trade finance. The transaction was processed through the Guarantee Vault platform, operated by Munich-based fintech Digital Vault Services (DVS). HSBC France issued the local guarantee, which was counter-guaranteed by HSBC Düsseldorf on behalf of Siemens S.A. in Spain. The entire process was completed electronically, without any paper-based documentation.

Gerhard Heubeck, global head of trade finance advisory at Siemens, said the development reflects the company’s focus on modernising financial operations. “The fully electronic execution of this guarantee enables us to replace paper-based workflows with modern, efficient processes, ensuring smoother and faster handling at the highest quality standards,” he said.

Olaf Haferkorn, senior sales lead for global banking at HSBC, added that the collaboration demonstrates how established networks can apply digital tools to simplify international finance. “By issuing locally in Spain through HSBC’s international network and using a secure digital infrastructure, we’ve demonstrated how cross-border trade finance can become faster, more transparent, and better aligned with clients’ operational needs,” he said.

According to Siemens and HSBC, the transaction highlights the growing potential for scalable digital guarantees in both European and international markets. The approach aims to improve speed, transparency, and compliance across cross-border processes, offering a model for corporates and financial institutions seeking to digitise key trade finance instruments.

 

Boost gears up for Visa’s enhanced data era

Boost Payment Solutions has announced full readiness to support clients through Visa’s newly introduced Commercial Enhanced Data Program (CEDP), a structural overhaul of the card network’s business-to-business (B2B) interchange model. The programme represents one of the most significant changes to commercial card processing in decades, replacing Visa’s long-standing Level 2 and Level 3 interchange categories with a framework based on real-time data validation.

Under the CEDP, Visa now uses machine learning to verify enhanced transaction data at the time of payment. Only transactions containing complete and accurate data will qualify for the lowest interchange rates. Those that fail to meet the enhanced data standards will be downgraded automatically, increasing costs for non-compliant transactions. The model aims to strengthen transparency and improve the accuracy of invoice-level details across the B2B payments chain.

Boost said that 99.96% of transactions processed through its platform already meet CEDP requirements, following extensive pre-launch testing and certification. Its pre-funding model enables customers to receive qualified rates immediately, rather than waiting for Visa’s verification cycle to complete. This approach is designed to protect client cash flow and avoid reimbursement delays that can extend up to three months under traditional settlement models.

The company’s technology automatically parses, enriches, and validates enhanced data fields, ensuring that buyers and suppliers can comply with the new framework without modifying existing systems. Boost’s proprietary platform draws on issuer and acquirer integrations to deliver real-time compliance across a global client base.

For acquiring partners, Boost’s Payments-as-a-Service (PaaS) gateway offers a ready-made solution for transmitting CEDP-qualified data. The gateway enables payment facilitators and merchant service providers to format and submit enhanced data on behalf of their merchants, keeping portfolios compliant while maintaining access to optimal interchange rates.

For corporate finance and treasury teams, Visa’s shift to a data-validated model could bring greater visibility into transaction-level costs and supplier information, improving reconciliation accuracy and forecasting. But it also raises the stakes for compliance, making reliable data quality essential to preserving interchange efficiency. Boost’s readiness for CEDP positions it among the first processors to operate fully within Visa’s enhanced data ecosystem, reflecting a broader industry shift toward real-time, data-centric payments infrastructure.

 

Mastercard launches threat intelligence tool to tackle payment fraud

Mastercard has launched Mastercard Threat Intelligence, a new platform combining its global payments data with cybersecurity insights from Recorded Future to help banks detect and prevent payment fraud before it occurs. The tool is aimed at fraud and compliance teams at issuing and acquiring banks, giving them real-time intelligence on cyber threats that can lead to fraudulent activity. Mastercard said the service bridges the traditional gap between cybersecurity and fraud prevention, enabling both teams to collaborate using the same intelligence feed.

Fraud often begins with a cyberattack rather than at the point of transaction. Mastercard cited research showing that 60% of global fraud leaders are only alerted to cyber breaches once losses have already occurred. The new system aims to change that by offering early detection of card-testing activity, alerts on digital skimming and merchant-level threat data, as well as weekly updates on vulnerabilities across the payments ecosystem.

Other features include analytics to assess the impact of card-related malware, merchant-specific risk assessments, and reports highlighting emerging fraud trends. The company said this approach will allow banks and payment providers to respond to potential incidents faster and strengthen their overall defences.

The launch follows Mastercard’s acquisition of cybersecurity firm Recorded Future in 2024 and builds on the company’s broader strategy to integrate cyber and financial-crime intelligence. By combining Recorded Future’s threat analytics with Mastercard’s network data, the platform provides targeted, payments-specific insights that can be acted on in near real time.

Early testing has already produced results. Mastercard and its ecosystem partners recently identified and took down malicious domains responsible for stealing payment card data from nearly 9,500 e-commerce sites, linked to an estimated US$120m in fraudulent transactions.

 

Bottomline unveils embedded AI agent for treasury operations

Bottomline has announced plans to introduce an embedded AI agent within its Global Cash Management and Payments Hub, marking a step toward greater automation and intelligence in treasury operations. The technology, scheduled for rollout in early 2026, is designed to help finance leaders manage liquidity, forecasting, and approvals through natural language interaction and predictive analytics.

Named Bea, the AI agent will function as a digital assistant for treasury and finance teams, allowing users to ask questions such as “What are my current account balances?” or “Help me approve an intra-company payment.” By combining a large language model with Bottomline’s data analytics capabilities, Bea will provide real-time responses, surface insights, and suggest actions based on user context and priorities.

Bottomline says the technology will enhance visibility, speed up decision-making, and support a more connected Office of the CFO. Within the company’s cash management platform, Bea will offer instant answers to liquidity queries and use predictive models to strengthen cash forecasting and working capital decisions.

“Our goal is to embed intelligence into every daily interaction, helping the Office of the CFO operate with greater efficiency and strategic clarity,” said Leo Gil, VP of Product for Global Cash Management and Payments Hub at Bottomline. “Bea is more than technology. It’s a trusted team member delivering insights, usability, and simplicity.”

A key focus of the initiative is data security. The AI operates in a closed, protected environment, ensuring sensitive financial information is not shared with public large language models. This framework is intended to preserve client confidentiality while enabling advanced automation.

The launch reflects a broader shift in enterprise finance toward embedded AI tools that integrate seamlessly into existing systems. By positioning its AI agent as an intelligent team member rather than a standalone feature, Bottomline aims to deliver tangible efficiency gains and reduce friction in treasury workflows.

“AI agents like Bea represent the next evolution in enterprise finance, where decisions are data-driven and made in real time,” added Craig Jeffery, Managing Partner, Strategic Treasurer, “Bottomline’s approach to secure, conversational AI is the standard for treasury.”

 

True Corporation offers green funding to cut supply chain emissions

True Corporation, a major telecoms and technology company in Thailand, has launched a Green Financing Program to give suppliers easier access to sustainable funding aimed at reducing Scope 3 emissions on the path to net zero by 2050. Developed with Pantavanij and TMBThanachart Bank, the model offers four financing options aligned to decarbonisation projects and operational safety standards in the supply chain.

Suppliers can apply for: green and blue loans for renewable and clean energy projects, resource efficiency and green buildings; short-term sustainability-linked loans with rates tied to pre-defined environmental targets; end-to-end solar EPC financing from assessment through to operations; and hire purchase or financial leases for electric vehicles covering corporate, pool, employee and logistics fleets.

True says interest among key high-spending partners is strong, with more than half indicating they would consider using the programme. The company also reports that over 100 suppliers have completed ESG assessments this year. The financing sits alongside True’s GHG Emissions Data Platform and consulting service, which are intended to help partners measure baselines, set targets and track progress.

Separately, True has reiterated a “Zero Fatalities” goal across its supplier network. Measures include stronger safety clauses in high-risk network contracts, standardised SOP training and PPE requirements with unified penalties, mandatory post-test certification for site workers, and digital monitoring of contract readiness and safety performance.

For suppliers, the programme may lower the hurdle to fund renewable power, electrify fleets and improve efficiency, while linking financing terms to measurable outcomes. For corporate customers and investors, the model provides a clearer line of sight on Scope 3 reductions and supply-chain safety practices, both increasingly central to procurement and capital allocation decisions.

 

BofA reports record adoption of AI-powered tools

Bank of America has reported record client usage of its AI-enabled CashPro Chat and transaction search features, as corporates increasingly adopt automation and real-time tools to improve treasury efficiency. CashPro, the bank’s digital platform for payments, deposits, loans and trade, is used by thousands of companies globally. Client use of CashPro Chat rose 21% year on year, with nearly 70% of corporate clients now relying on it for account information, transaction tracking and service resolution. Meanwhile, CashPro Search has processed more than 18 million searches since its launch in early 2023, including 2.4 million in the third quarter of 2025 alone, its highest quarterly total to date.

The growing use of these tools reflects a wider shift in treasury management toward self-service technology and instant information access. Bank of America said its AI-powered chat function combines automated support with live expert routing, achieving average response times below 30 seconds and a containment rate of 43% in the latest quarter.

CashPro Search provides visibility across payment types including wires, ACH, RTP, FX and loan proceeds, and has reduced phone and email enquiries by 20% among early adopters.

The bank said future updates will expand CashPro Chat to handle credit inquiries and automate more routine treasury workflows, part of its broader effort to integrate artificial intelligence into day-to-day client operations.

 

Treasury Prime joins U.S. Bank network to expand embedded banking access

Treasury Prime has joined the U.S. Bank Connected Partnership Network, broadening access to embedded banking technology for treasury and finance teams. The Connected Partnership Network serves as U.S. Bank’s digital marketplace for integrated fintech, treasury, and payments solutions. It allows corporate clients to identify and adopt pre-connected technologies that streamline operations and modernise cash and payment workflows.

Through the partnership, U.S. Bank treasury clients will gain access to Treasury Prime’s Bank OS platform, which offers advanced subledger functionality and AI-based reconciliation tools designed to improve accuracy and scalability in back-office processes. Treasury Prime’s inclusion also adds U.S. Bank to its growing Bank Network. This now comprises more than 15 financial institutions and enables clients to connect through the company’s OneKey API. This technology allows fintechs and enterprises to integrate with multiple banks through a single interface, reducing implementation time and complexity.

Both firms describe the partnership as part of a broader effort to link traditional banking infrastructure with embedded finance solutions. Treasury Prime aims to make it easier for banks, corporates, and fintechs to build products on top of its platform, while U.S. Bank continues to expand the range of pre-vetted partners within its Connected Partnership Network.

 

Paysend expands Visa partnership to boost cross-border payment speed

Paysend has expanded its partnership with Visa through a new initiative designed to enhance real-time cross-border payments for businesses across North America. The move will make Paysend’s Enterprise API, a technology interface that allows companies to integrate Paysend’s payment capabilities directly into their own systems, available to Visa merchants and collaborators.

By integrating Paysend’s technology with Visa’s infrastructure, the partnership seeks to simplify how businesses send and receive funds internationally. The Enterprise API provides direct connectivity to Paysend’s global payment engine, allowing real-time tracking, reconciliation, and settlement across multiple currencies. For finance and treasury teams, the technology promises greater visibility and control over cash positions while cutting the administrative burden of managing multiple payment providers.

Visa said the collaboration reflects its goal of combining global reach with innovative fintech solutions to improve the speed and reliability of cross-border transactions. For Paysend, the expansion marks a key step in scaling its enterprise offering and deepening its presence in the North American market.

Paysend continues to work with Central Payments, its programme manager in the US, to handle back-end processing and ensure compliance with regional regulations.

 

PNC Bank joins FedNow network to expand real-time payment reach

PNC Bank has joined the Federal Reserve’s FedNow Service, expanding its real-time payments capabilities and reinforcing its position among US banks offering 24/7 instant payment solutions. The FedNow Service, launched in 2023, allows participating financial institutions to send and receive payments instantly at any time of day or week. By joining the network, PNC builds on its role as a founding member of The Clearing House’s Real-Time Payments (RTP) system, further broadening its support for immediate payment infrastructure.

The move reflects growing demand among businesses for faster, more efficient settlement options. Since the introduction of RTP and FedNow, use cases for instant payments have expanded across sectors, including payroll, earned wage access, loan disbursements, and gig economy payouts. Analysts note that adoption has accelerated as companies prioritise liquidity management, automation, and customer satisfaction.

PNC says the addition of FedNow complements its existing portfolio of payments solutions, which already includes RTP, Zelle disbursements, and proprietary tools such as Intelligent Routing and ePayments. Through API-based integration, corporate clients can initiate payments directly from their own systems, helping reduce operational costs and improve accuracy.

By participating in both major US real-time payment networks, PNC is positioned to offer clients broader reach and resilience across multiple platforms. The bank’s investment in embedded finance and authentication technology is also designed to support future growth in digital payment use cases and to help corporates modernise their treasury operations in line with the broader shift toward instant settlement.

 

Finix-Interac integration streamlines in-store payments for Canadian businesses

Finix has integrated with Interac to enable in-store debit payments for Canadian merchants, expanding its footprint in the country’s payments market. The partnership allows businesses using the Finix platform to accept Interac Debit, one of Canada’s most widely used payment methods, alongside existing online and in-app options.

The move is aimed at helping small and medium-sized enterprises modernise their payment infrastructure and offer customers more flexible ways to pay. By supporting in-person debit transactions through Interac, Finix is broadening its capabilities beyond online payments to include the full spectrum of merchant needs in Canada.

For corporate finance and treasury teams, the integration reflects the continued shift toward unified payment ecosystems that bridge digital and physical channels. With more firms seeking to consolidate payment providers and reduce operational complexity, collaborations like this one can enhance efficiency while maintaining compliance with domestic payment standards.

Finix, based in San Francisco, has been expanding internationally as part of its strategy to provide end-to-end payment processing across markets. Its integration with Interac also underscores the growing importance of local partnerships in scaling cross-border fintech infrastructure within tightly regulated national systems.

 

Numou launches procurement financing to boost SME access to capital

Numou, a subsidiary of Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM), has launched a Procurement Financing initiative designed to help small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) secure funding against confirmed government and corporate contracts. The new programme connects contract-backed demand with lender support through Numou’s digital lending platform, helping SMEs bridge cash flow gaps when delivering large projects.

Participating lenders will be able to assess SMEs based on verified contract opportunities rather than traditional collateral, supporting faster and more transparent credit decisions. The platform currently hosts a broad ecosystem of partners, including fintech lenders such as CredibleX, Erad, Klubwork, Ahbi, Zelo and FlapKap, alongside public initiatives like the Khalifa Fund’s Abu Dhabi SME Champions Program.

The initiative also lays the groundwork for Numou’s longer-term vision: establishing the UAE’s first SME Data Warehouse. This national platform will aggregate data from government entities, corporates and financial institutions to provide real-time insights into SME performance. The goal is to strengthen the country’s lending infrastructure and reduce barriers to finance for smaller businesses.

By linking procurement, data and financing, Numou’s initiative supports the UAE’s wider ambition to build a resilient, diversified private sector and expand access to sustainable funding for entrepreneurs and growth-stage firms.

 

RMB up to 5th most active global payments currency in September

Swift’s latest RMB Tracker has shown that in September, the RMB rose one position to be the fifth most active currency for global payments by value, with a share of 3.17%. Overall, RMB payment value increased by 23.07% compared to August, while all payment currencies increased by 6.74%. Regarding international payments, excluding payments within the Eurozone, the RMB ranked sixth with a share of 2.34% in September.

The tracker uses data from live and delivered MT 103 and MT 202 - customer-initiated and institutional payments - and ISO equivalent messages exchanged on Swift. RMB overtook the Canadian dollar in September, which recorded a 3.12% market share. The top three currencies held firm, with the US dollar (47.79% of all global payments value) followed by the euro (22.77%), and the British pound (7.38%). 

As a global currency in the trade finance market, based on live and delivered inter-group only MT 400 and MT 700 messages exchanged on SWIFT, RMB took second place based on value, accounting for 7.28% of September’s trade finance transactions. This field remains dominated by the US dollar (80.50%), with the euro in third place (7.00%).

Regarding FX spot transactions, RMB was September’s sixth most used currency for FX confirmations. The US dollar again claimed the top spot here, followed by the euro, pound, yen, and Canadian dollar. In terms of the top economies carrying out FX spot transactions in RMB, the UK came out on top in September (38.32%), followed by the US (13.32%), Hong Kong (10.06%), France (9.10%), and China (7.33%).

 

Kesko partners with Tietoevry Industry to strengthen supply chain integration

Kesko has signed a strategic agreement with Tietoevry Industry to deploy its Business Information Exchange (BIX) Services, a move aimed at improving supply chain integration and data exchange across its operations. The partnership forms part of Kesko’s wider IT transformation programme that was announced earlier this year. Through the deal, Tietoevry Industry will provide BIX Supply Chain Messaging Services to streamline business transactions with customers and suppliers, supporting Kesko’s digital competitiveness and growth ambitions.

The agreement, effective from July 2025 and running through to 2031, covers all of Kesko’s divisions in Finland as well as Onninen operations across the Nordics and Baltics. The BIX platform delivers secure, resilient and sustainable data exchange capabilities with full redundancy and dedicated expert support, helping safeguard Kesko’s business-critical processes.

Kesko said the integration will play a central role in securing supplier orders and timely store deliveries, while enabling more data-driven decision-making across the group. For Tietoevry Industry, the agreement extends a nearly 20-year relationship with Kesko, underscoring its role as a trusted technology partner in the retailer’s ongoing digital transformation.

 

NU and Dream partner to bring stablecoin payments to corporate treasury

NU Blockchain Technologies has partnered with Dream Payments to launch a stablecoin-based payments and treasury infrastructure aimed at helping businesses move money globally, make real-time payments, and earn yield on idle balances.

The collaboration combines NU’s digital finance platform, which supports asset tokenisation and issuance, with Dream’s embedded payments technology. Together, they aim to replace slow and costly wire transfers with programmable, stablecoin-powered payment rails integrated directly into corporate systems such as ERP and accounting platforms.

The partnership will initially roll out support for nuYLDS, a permissionless ERC20 token backed by Figure Technologies’ YLDS, the first SEC-regulated yield-bearing stablecoin. The token is designed to give enterprises access to compliant, yield-generating digital assets with real-time settlement capabilities.

By linking regulated yield products with programmable payments, NU and Dream are positioning stablecoins as a bridge between traditional corporate finance and digital asset infrastructure. This evolution could potentially reshape how enterprises manage working capital and international payments.