UK finance leaders enter 2026 with a cautiously more optimistic outlook on technology investment, particularly around artificial intelligence, even as risk appetite and business confidence remain below long-term norms.

The latest quarterly survey of UK chief financial officers by Deloitte shows a marked shift in sentiment over the past year. Nearly six in ten CFOs (59%) say they have become more optimistic about the potential for AI to improve their organisation’s performance, up from 39% when the question was last asked in the third quarter of 2024. The findings point to a growing belief that digital tools will play a central role in driving productivity and performance, despite an external environment still shaped by geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

The survey, conducted between 2 and 14 December 2025, captures the views of 55 CFOs and group finance directors from large UK companies, including nine FTSE 100 and 18 FTSE 250 firms. Together, the listed companies surveyed represent around £389bn of market value, roughly 14% of the quoted UK equity market.

Technology optimism builds momentum

Confidence in digital investment runs deeper than attitudes toward AI alone. An overwhelming majority of respondents (96%) expect UK companies to increase investment in digital technology and assets over the next five years. More than three quarters (77%) also anticipate an improvement in productivity growth and business performance over the same period.

Richard Houston, senior partner and chief executive of Deloitte UK, says finance leaders are “significantly more positive about improving performance through deploying AI” and remain upbeat about technology investment over the medium term. He points to the contribution technology made to US GDP growth in 2025 and argues there is “real potential in the year ahead for AI to boost UK business performance and fuel growth.”

Houston also stresses that technology alone will not deliver results. “To realise the full value from AI, we must combine human skills with technology and upskill people, so nobody is left behind,” he says.

For treasurers and finance teams, the findings suggest that AI and broader digital tools are moving beyond experimentation and into more embedded use cases. As investment plans take shape, attention is likely to shift from pilots to execution, governance and measurement of returns, particularly where technology spending competes with other calls on capital.

Risk appetite edges higher but caution remains

Alongside rising confidence in technology, there are tentative signs of stabilisation in corporate risk appetite. At the end of 2025, 15% of CFOs say it is a good time to take greater risk onto their balance sheet, up from 12% in the previous quarter. While this represents an improvement, it remains well below the long-run average of 25%.

Business optimism has also recovered from the lows seen in the third quarter, returning to levels comparable with March 2025 and stronger than those recorded at the end of 2024. Despite this improvement, the overall reading on confidence remains negative, with a net balance of -13%, indicating that pessimism still outweighs optimism among finance leaders.

More expansionary strategies continue to rank relatively low on CFOs’ priority lists. That said, capital expenditure has gained some traction. The proportion of respondents identifying capex as a strong priority has risen to 17%, the highest level in two and a half years and marginally above the long-term average of 15%.

Ian Stewart, chief economist at Deloitte UK, describes the mood as cautious but improving. “Business sentiment is subdued but more positive than a year ago,” he says, noting that while CFOs remain concerned about geopolitics and productivity, confidence and risk appetite have “ticked up from their autumn lows” as perceptions of external uncertainty ease.

Geopolitics looms large for CFOs

Perceptions of external uncertainty have softened slightly as 2025 draws to a close. The share of CFOs rating uncertainty as high or very high has fallen to 38%, down from 41% in the previous quarter and the lowest level since the third quarter of 2024. Even so, uncertainty remains elevated by historical standards.

Geopolitics continues to dominate the risk landscape. For the fourth year running, it ranks as the top external concern for UK finance leaders heading into 2026, with a risk rating of 65, up from 62 in the prior quarter. Issues around UK competitiveness and weak productivity follow closely, while concerns around energy prices and supply disruption have eased marginally.

These findings underline the challenge facing finance teams as they plan for the year ahead. While some indicators have stabilised, political developments and structural economic pressures continue to weigh on decision-making.

FX volatility moves up the agenda

The persistence of geopolitical risk has direct implications for treasury operations, particularly in foreign exchange markets. Commenting on the Deloitte research, Eric Huttman, chief executive of MillTech, says geopolitical uncertainty often has consequences that extend well beyond the headlines.

“When tensions escalate or policy direction becomes unclear, the impact quickly bleeds into currency markets, often in ways that are difficult for businesses to anticipate,” he says. What may appear to be a distant event can ultimately “reprice currencies, disrupt cash flows and erode margins,” turning FX volatility into a core business risk.

According to Huttman, half of UK corporates experienced losses linked to currency volatility in 2025, and he warns that the pressure is unlikely to ease. “This year, businesses must prepare for more volatility as they operate amid what promises to be another unpredictable year,” he says.

As volatility becomes more structural rather than cyclical, treasury teams will need to adapt. Huttman argues this will require “more robust, forward-looking approaches to managing risk,” including greater use of advanced analytics, improved real-time visibility across exposures and more disciplined execution. The aim, he adds, is to respond faster and protect margins in what is shaping up to be a prolonged period of uncertainty.

Balancing optimism with discipline

Taken together, the survey paints a picture of finance leaders who are more optimistic about the tools at their disposal than they were a year ago, but still cautious about the wider environment. AI and digital investment are increasingly viewed as enablers of productivity and resilience rather than discretionary upgrades.

At the same time, boards and finance teams are not abandoning prudence. Risk appetite remains constrained, business confidence is still negative in net terms, and geopolitical concerns dominate the risk agenda. Investment decisions are therefore likely to remain selective, with a premium on initiatives that can demonstrate clear operational or financial benefits.

For CFOs and treasurers alike, the challenge in 2026 will be execution. Turning optimism about AI and technology into tangible improvements in performance, risk management and control will require careful prioritisation, robust governance and sustained investment in skills. As external uncertainty persists, the ability to combine technological capability with financial discipline is likely to define which organisations convert confidence into lasting advantage.