US chief executives are accelerating their investment in artificial intelligence while rethinking supply chain strategies and workforce models to sustain growth in an uncertain economy, according to the 2025 KPMG US CEO Outlook. The survey of business leaders reveals a striking mix of confidence and caution: optimism about technology-driven gains sits alongside rising anxiety over costs, cybersecurity, and talent.

Supply chain strategy tops the agenda

Supply chain resilience has emerged as the most pressing short-term challenge, cited by 34% of CEOs, ahead of cybersecurity risks (29%) and global economic uncertainty (25%). AI integration (23%) and regulatory pressure (23%) complete the top five concerns.

Tim Walsh, KPMG’s US Chair and CEO, says conversations with business leaders now start with operational efficiency and cost control. “Virtually every meeting with a CEO begins with discussing supply chain strategy, cost takeout, and operational efficiency,” he notes, adding that early adopters of AI are already finding ways to reduce cost pressure without passing it on to customers.

Eighty-five per cent of CEOs said they are revising sourcing strategies to mitigate tariff exposure by increasing domestic production or local sourcing. Most (79%) have already adapted their growth strategies as a result, while a further 22% plan to do so.

M&A appetite also remains strong despite economic uncertainty. One-third of CEOs expect to undertake acquisitions that will significantly reshape their business within three years, while 56% anticipate smaller, targeted deals. For treasurers, this sustained deal activity reinforces the need for liquidity flexibility and efficient funding structures, especially as balance sheet strategies become more dynamic.

AI optimism drives confidence

Executives are increasingly linking their economic outlook to the success of AI adoption. A large majority are confident about prospects for their country (86%), their company (84%), and the global economy (74%) over the next three years.

Walsh says CEOs are “going on offence” with AI, speeding up implementation while managing risks in parallel. “AI optimism, and specifically investment in American innovation, is sustaining economic confidence,” he explains.

Eighty-one per cent of respondents believe that upskilling talent will be a key factor influencing prosperity, while 79% point to the successful integration of AI into business processes. Inflation (77%) and technology costs (75%) remain significant headwinds, but both now trail the perceived importance of talent and AI readiness.

Nearly half of CEOs (49%) expect AI agents to deliver major efficiency or growth improvements, and a further 11% predict a “transformational” impact that will fundamentally change operating models and workforce management.

Faster expectations for returns

Perhaps the clearest sign of momentum is how sharply expectations for AI returns have accelerated. In 2024, only 1% of CEOs expected to see results within a year. This year, 21% do. The proportion anticipating a payback within one to three years has jumped from 21% to 69%, while those expecting a three-to-five-year horizon have dropped from 68% to just 9%.

Seventy-four per cent of CEOs now name AI as a top investment priority despite the uncertain economy. They cite efficiency, automation, and enhanced decision-making as the main benefits, but also highlight challenges around data readiness, ethics, and regulation.

For treasurers, these findings underline the urgency of aligning digital and financial strategies. AI-driven forecasting and liquidity optimisation are moving from innovation pilots to operational requirements, demanding closer integration between finance and data teams.

Rethinking the workforce

The survey also paints a picture of rapid structural change within organisations. Almost seven in ten CEOs (69%) expect their company to take an “hourglass” shape in the next three years, with a larger number of highly skilled specialists and executives, but fewer middle-management roles.

Retaining and retraining top performers is a clear focus: 73% of CEOs say they are prioritising high-potential talent, 65% are redesigning roles to reflect AI collaboration, and 64% are recruiting new staff with AI and technology skills.

Walsh notes that leaders are conscious of how profoundly AI will alter workforce dynamics. “CEOs are wrestling with the impact of AI agents on their workforce. They know their organisation’s shape, size, and capabilities will change,” he says. “AI agents will be embedded team members across organisations, underscoring the urgency to upskill employees and design systems to govern, manage and develop agents.”

Half of CEOs now believe that performance management for AI agents will become the responsibility of business managers rather than HR or IT, signalling a shift in how organisations view human–machine collaboration.

Cybersecurity remains a constant threat

Even as companies push forward with AI, digital risk remains top of mind. Eighty-two per cent of CEOs view cybercrime and cyber insecurity as the greatest threat to their organisation’s prosperity over the next three years.

Forty-six per cent have increased investment in cybersecurity and digital resilience, while 37% are boosting spending on AI integration to manage emerging risks. Fraud detection (65%) and data privacy (52%) are seen as the most urgent concerns.

Walsh says that while AI dominates strategic discussions, other technologies are also reshaping the threat landscape. “Quantum computing has now shifted from a research focus to a business opportunity,” he warns. “It also poses a significant cyber threat to current encryption standards, requiring organisations to start adjusting their approach now.”

For treasury and finance teams, the intersection of cyber and AI risk is particularly relevant. As payment processes and liquidity operations become increasingly automated, securing data flows and verifying transaction authenticity will demand greater vigilance and investment in real-time monitoring tools.

Evolving expectations of leadership

The demands placed on CEOs themselves are also growing. Sixty-one per cent say their role has evolved significantly, with new expectations around transparency, agility, and digital literacy. Eighty-five per cent feel under greater pressure to secure the long-term prosperity of their organisations.

Walsh reflects that “the business landscape is shifting under our feet and requires new skillsets and adaptability. Resilience and the ability to build trust are crucial.”

Leaders now identify cultural transformation, communication under pressure, and technological fluency, particularly in AI, as essential traits for navigating a volatile environment.

The bottom line for corporate treasurers

For treasurers, the findings offer a clear window into the priorities shaping boardroom strategy. The renewed focus on supply chain efficiency and domestic sourcing points to potential shifts in working capital flows and financing structures. As companies localise production, liquidity management may need to adapt to new cost patterns and regional exposures.

Meanwhile, the race to monetise AI investments will place greater emphasis on data governance, forecasting accuracy, and system integration, areas where treasury and finance functions can add measurable value. Treasury teams that can leverage automation, real-time analytics, and scenario modelling will be better positioned to support the strategic agility CEOs now demand.

Cybersecurity and compliance also loom larger in the treasurer’s remit as transaction data becomes more digitised and interconnected. The report’s emphasis on risk awareness reinforces the growing expectation that treasury not only manages liquidity but also helps safeguard the financial infrastructure of the enterprise.

A defining moment for transformation

KPMG’s research suggests that US CEOs are entering a decisive phase. They are confident but restless, determined to drive technological change, restructure operations, and future-proof their organisations even as external risks multiply.

The challenge, as Walsh puts it, is to act “with pace and purpose.” The next three years may test the limits of that ambition, but they will also define which companies emerge as true leaders in the age of AI-enabled transformation.